Obama won election day in Nevada by 16,000 votes in 2012. Assuming Trump does win, he's going to need it to be by around 70,000 votes on election day which requires a much higher turnout (which is unlikely given higher early voting numbers this year) and to win it by a huge margin. Indeed, it's also fairly likely independents break evenly, so that won't really have much of an impact.

It will be fun to analyse afterwards. It could just be more Dems have voted early than before? Or the record numbers of independents that are being recorded are first time Trump voters. We don't even know if Registered Republicans are voting for Trump or Democrats for Hillary. Could be misleading on a lot of fronts given this election doesn't seem to follow the same rules as previous ones.

 

Not long until we will know :)

I've been reading posts closely over the past couple of weeks.

 

A bit finger in the air, but I reckon Clinton will sail through. I think she'll command a 53% over Trumps 45% (that leaves 2% for the remainder). I think there is small wave of uncounted hispanics that will sway this.

I also think she'll get Florida but I think there will be a random swing state she will unexpectedly lose (take a pick, not sure).

 

I also have to remind myself on regular occurrences that this THING is in spitting distance of the white house. This is perhaps comprehendible in a tiny, chaotic state that has little to zero influence on world politics. But, no. It's the United States.

 

Now watch me get this totally wrong... :cry:

Edited November 7, 20168 yr by ScottyEm

I've been reading posts closely over the past couple of weeks.

 

A bit finger in the air, but I reckon Clinton will sail through. I think she'll command a 53% over Trumps 45% (that leaves 2% for the remainder). I think there is small wave of uncounted hispanics that will sway this.

I also think she'll get Florida but I think there will be a random swing state she will unexpectedly lose (take a pick, not sure).

 

I also have to remind myself on regular occurrences that this THING is in spitting distance of the white house. This is perhaps comprehendible in a tiny, chaotic state that has little to zero influence on world politics. But, no. It's the United States.

 

Now watch me get this totally wrong... :cry:

 

Let's hope not...

 

I am worried about Ohio and NC and less worried about Michigan. I am more confident in Florida.

It looks like she's lost North C and Ohio and maybe Michigan, so I ca 't. I can't even.

 

Hope that hoe Tirren is telling me I told you so, moron tomorrow :cry: Or well Wednesday. I will go ro bed around 12am UK time so too early for any results thank god. I'll see it in the morning ... just like I did with Brexit :((( I ×as late to work that day waking up and digesting that disgusting news!!

This website will apparently be giving real time updates on the vote tallies/how the race is going throughout the day (or at least it will be until it crashes after 5 minutes). Don't know how accurate it'll be but it'll (hopefully) at least prepare you for whatever psychological episode you'll be having after the polls close.

I can't with all the delusions (Trump winning 40 states?!) and chicken littles around here. She's well ahead in national and state polling, ahead of where President Obama was in 2012. Even websites that are more conservative in their estimates have Hillary's probability of winning states like Michigan and Pennsylvania at about 75-80%. President Obama won Michigan by about 10 points in 2012, it's not going to swing that much in four years, when it's gone blue every election since 1992. It has a high population of African-Americans, Muslims, and college students.

 

The polls have very much improved for Clinton since last week. The demographics just aren't there for a Trump win. He's not going to win by doing worse than Romney among people of color, college-educated whites, and women in general. I was much more worried about President Obama losing in 2012 than I am of Clinton losing tomorrow.

Well it's all over folks. Rudy Giuliani has called the election for Trump! He says he's been all over America and "loads of people are voting for Trump, huge numbers" In other news, Chris Christie is sounding out people to join Trump's cabinet.

how does that prove anything?

 

it's far from over, and I very much expect a Clinton victory at this point anyway.

how does that prove anything?

 

it's far from over, and I very much expect a Clinton victory at this point anyway.

 

 

Me too. My post was tongue-in-cheek!

Edited November 8, 20168 yr by Common Sense

That HUGE numbers or TREMENDOUS numbers Chris?? :lol:

That HUGE numbers or TREMENDOUS numbers Chris?? :lol:

 

 

Bigly numbers!!

Edited November 8, 20168 yr by Common Sense

Well I woke up this morning feeling exceedingly positive. She's going to win, Trump is going to be a sore loser and not actually concede and the last YEAR will have all been worth it. Or something.

Never having to listen to Kellyanne again though, that's worth it WHATEVER happens.

This website will apparently be giving real time updates on the vote tallies/how the race is going throughout the day (or at least it will be until it crashes after 5 minutes). Don't know how accurate it'll be but it'll (hopefully) at least prepare you for whatever psychological episode you'll be having after the polls close.

A fun disclaimer: Obama's data team spent most of the afternoon throwing up in 2012 because they were convinced from this data that they'd lost Ohio in a landslide. They ended up winning it comfortably. Different demographics turn out in sometimes unexpected different volumes through the day, so don't get *quite* too panicked if Trump is landsliding it on the basis of old people in the morning.

 

That said on the other hand the General Secretary of Scottish Labour famously locked himself in a toilet for an hour after seeing the white collar SNP turnout from 6pm onwards so sometimes your suspicions CAN BE RIGHT

In what year? Coz if it was 2016 they should have been more preoccupied with the Tories!

2015, obviously. It's not as if it was unexpected that 2016 would go badly, whereas there was still hope on the day in 2015 that Labour could hold onto 5-10 seats if polling day went right.

Lmfao at this thread

 

About to leave my house to vote for the first female president of the United States of America.

 

Deal with it you Trumpalots

How's Hillary doing? Praying that she wins for the sake of the world.

How's Hillary doing? Praying that she wins for the sake of the world.

 

The polls don't start closing until 11pm our time, so we won't know until then. We might have exit polls but I'm not sure if the US uses them.