The County Council elections in England take place next week (Thursday) in most of England. Traditionally, they are the Tories' strongest level of local government. The exception was 20 years ago in 1993 when they managed to lose control of strongholds such as Surrey, East and West Sussex, Norfolk, Hampshire and Dorset. They were left in control of just one county, Buckinghamshire. However, they have steadily clawed their way back since then and, in the last elections four years ago they won almost every county.

 

All three main parties will be downplaying expectations sop that they can claim to have done better than expected on Friday. It is fair to say that the Tories will lose a lot of seats simply because they start with so many. For the Lib Dems it is a question of how far their inevitable losses to Labour in the north are matched by gains from the Tories in the south. It will also be interesting to see how many seats UKIP win.

 

The last county elections took place on the same day as the European elections and were terrible for Labour. Therefore, they will be expecting to make significant gains. They should regain control of a number of northern counties.

So that's why there have been Conservative flags by people's front doors over the last few weeks in my area (Guildford)! :lol: :(

As usual, Northern Ireland's council elections are timetabled to coincide with elections to the Stormont Assembly, so we've got another two years left until we can vote in them (presuming I'm even in Northern Ireland by then).

 

I have been watching the election broadcasts on the iPlayer though. I find it interesting that Labour's first PPB dealt solely with immigration. They must be scared about UKIP making an impact, although I can't imagine how UKIP is going to advance their main goal on a local level.

As usual, Northern Ireland's council elections are timetabled to coincide with elections to the Stormont Assembly, so we've got another two years left until we can vote in them (presuming I'm even in Northern Ireland by then).

 

I have been watching the election broadcasts on the iPlayer though. I find it interesting that Labour's first PPB dealt solely with immigration. They must be scared about UKIP making an impact, although I can't imagine how UKIP is going to advance their main goal on a local level.

 

Sadly, I think they're going to do really well in these elections. They do genuinely seem to have taken off over the last year, and most importantly, the polls are showing they're especially popular with the over-60s, who are the one demographic who vote in all elections, even the less important ones like these.

 

I don't expect Labour to make that many gains purely because so many of these are in -shire counties where the government has carefully avoided heaping the cuts onto, and I don't think the Conservatives are strong enough to gain many seats off the Lib Dems (or vice versa), so I fear Ukip will actually be the big story of these elections tbh.

Edited April 24, 201312 yr by Danny

For the Lib Dems it is a question of how far their inevitable losses to Labour in the north are matched by gains from the Tories in the south.

This is you just being hopeful, right? It's going to be a story of Lib Dem slaughter by and large - the good results will be ones they hold on to, not gains.

UKIP's strange to call. I can't see where the base would come from to give them more than a few token gains here and there.

 

Frankly I think county's BORING AS anyway as elections go. ROLL ON EURO ELECTIONS and the ETERNAL SCRAP for the seventh seat in the East *.*

Edited April 25, 201312 yr by Kanduälska

This is you just being hopeful, right? It's going to be a story of Lib Dem slaughter by and large - the good results will be ones they hold on to, not gains.

Last year's local election results In England were not too bad for the Lib Dems. The massive losses came in Scotland. In he county elections four years ago the Lib Dems picked up seats from Labour in the north (many of which will probably be lost next week) but lost seats to the Tories in the south. The two counties they had held before the election both went Tory.

Their massive losses up here are purely down to their coalition partners. People voted LibDem in a lot of places to keep the Torys out, not help them get in. I think those are council seats you're never getting back.

Suedehead, who do you think could win the elections in Guildford?

Their massive losses up here are purely down to their coalition partners. People voted LibDem in a lot of places to keep the Torys out, not help them get in. I think those are council seats you're never getting back.

 

Who is this "you"? I am not a member of any party. The Lib Dems' best hope in Scotland is probably for independence so they can distance themselves from the coalition.

 

Suedehead, who do you think could win the elections in Guildford?

 

As I haven't lived near Guildford for a long time it's hard to say. Looking at the results from four years ago, if the Lib Dems do well, they could pick up seats from teh Tories. If they lose seats to the Tories in Guildford they would have done pretty badly.

I've seen loads of Conservative signs in my area and only one Liberal Democrat sign by the candidate's house (:lol:), so I would say that the Tories have a better chance.

Edited April 25, 201312 yr by Griff

I've seen loads of Conservative signs in my area and only one Liberal Democrat sign by the candidate's house (:lol:), so I would say that the Tories have a better chance.

There are a number of areas in Guildford with a hefty Tory majority so you may be in one of those.

There are a number of areas in Guildford with a hefty Tory majority so you may be in one of those.

 

I'm in Merrow, so I'm guessing that's pretty bad then? Oh great. :(

I'm in Merrow, so I'm guessing that's pretty bad then? Oh great. :(

If that's in Guildford East, it is a Tory seat. If it's Guildford North then it is a Lib Dem seat atm. However, each ward os fairly large so they will each have predominantly Tory areas and predominantly Lib Dem areas. Merrow is not far from Sutton Green which was solidly Tory while I lived in Woking and I suspect Merrow itself is the same. Looking at the map it looks like it may well be in Guildford E and is, therefore, lumped in with solidly Tory Horsley.

Why would the Liberal Democrats make many gains, if at all? Outside of their strongholds they've totally died off.

I can't see the Lib Dems winning over unhappy Tory voters down South, surely that's natural UKIP target ground. I don't expect them to make too many gains though, and Labour should continue to make solid gains in the North and take back a couple of councils like Lancashire.

 

Given there's not a full set of borough elections this year I won't be voting either at home or uni, but I'll be paying particular attention to a couple of results nearby. Firstly there's the Doncaster mayoral election where it'd be disastrous if Labour didn't win. The current Mayor Peter Davies has resigned from the English Democrats to stand as an independent but despite this he says he'll rejoin the party if he wins. Pretty much sums him up, awful man and in such a Labour heartland it's a surprise that we lost it in the first place.

 

Secondly the vice chair of my uni Labour society is standing in a council by-election in the ward next to mine. She's not expected to win, and we came 3rd last time so even 2nd behind the Lib Dems would be a good result. If she were to somehow take it (and early signs are reasonably positive) then it would be a huge scalp given that the ward is in the constituency of a certain Mr. Clegg.

So these elections are in Tory shires and the main threat to them is the UKIP threat to the right and also in the seats where the railway will run through they could see a reaction against them, right?

UKIP are hoping to benefit from their opposition to the High Speed Rail line, yes. They are also highlighting their differences with the Tories and, in general, that means highlighting the fact that they are to the right of the Tories. UKIP will probably also benefit from some of the "none of the above" votes which used to go the the Lib Dems.

 

It is noticeable that all parties and sections of the press are exposing some of the more loopy UKIP candidates as the closet racists and homophobes that many of them are. One UKIP candidate devoted a whole page of a leaflet to an attack on "gay rights" policies. If UKIP do well - that means picking up a large share of the vote rather than actually winning many seats - then their policies (or lack of them) are likely to come under further scrutiny. The Tories will hope that that will prove to be a good thing with voters being turned off UKIP when they realise what an incoherent rabble they really are.

 

BTW, only six counties will be counting votes tonight. Most will not start until tomorrow morning so there will be very few results from the county elections until lunchtime.

Pity i love a good late night election special - all i can say is role on May 2015 ill be up for 48 hours straight like 2010 love it lol so exciting seeing history being created. And NO next years European elections wont be good enough lol!!

Yes, I rather enjoy election nights too! The European elections don't go on as late anyway. The votes will be verified on the Thursday night (i.e. check that the number of votes in each box matches the number of votes issued) and the count proper will begin on the Sunday evening when the rest of Europe has voted. They may be on the same day as the local elections as happened in 2009.