December 5, 201311 yr Author Just seen that 7 Lib Dem MPs are resigning. Surely those seats are all goners no matter what without the "incumbency bonus"? Add into that the fact that they're going to lose most of their seats in Scotland and most of their seats anywhere where Labour came within 20% of them in 2010, and that's already more than a third of their MPs gone. And that's assuming they don't suffer any losses in Tory/LibDem marginals (optimistic to say the least). I do find some of the media predictions of them still having 40+ MPs in 2015 quite strange.
December 5, 201311 yr Which 7 are going. I know Ming is out but who else is stepping down? I think they'll be lucky to retain any seats on the Scottish Mainland at all.
December 5, 201311 yr Author Apart from Campbell... Sarah Teather in Brent in London - that's definitely gone as Labour were only 3% behind in 2010, and it's a naturally Labour area anyway (very poor and ethnically diverse) Alan Beith in Berwick-upon-Tweed - Conservatives just 7% behind...arguable whether that one will go Annette Brooke in Dorset & Poole - the Tories 300 votes behind, surely gone Malcolm Bruce in Gordon - had a healthy lead, but still probably not enough to withstand the Scottish onslaught David Heath in Somerton and Frome - 3% lead over the Tories, probably gone Andrew Stunnell in Hazel Grove - 15% lead over the Tories, the only one I could see them maybe holding onto As for Scotland, I think Charles Kennedy will maybe survive even against the trend. Other than that, I agree they could lose most of them... might they even lose their super-safe seat in Orkney & Shetland Islands? I imagine privatising the Royal Mail would go down quite badly with them (though I say this with no knowledge whatsoever, but still).
December 5, 201311 yr Most of those who are going are well into their sixties or above (Sarah Teather being the most obvious exception) so it would be wrong to draw any real conclusions from their number.
December 6, 201311 yr Author Most of those who are going are well into their sixties or above (Sarah Teather being the most obvious exception) so it would be wrong to draw any real conclusions from their number. I wasn't suggesting that them retiring was a sign that they thought they would lose, just that without the popularity of an incumbent Lib Dem MP (which even most Lib Dems accept is their main trump-card to survive national trends), they're probably going to be screwed in most cases.
February 18, 201411 yr Author Labour are heavily targetting Clegg's constituency in Sheffield: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-25...l-Election.html
February 18, 201411 yr So you don't define him by it - so when you referred to him as "back-stabbing Miliband" you were just throwing an inconsequential insult in for the sake of it. Or exactly what you're accusing me of doing. Funny that. missed this one. Critricising a public figure, insulting or not, is not the same as insulting someone for holding a view you don't agree with. Politicians slag each other off all the time, they just choose their words more "economically" but the intent is the same. Of course Ed won't entertain the notion that he'll enter into a Libdem-pact - that would be election suicide. Libdems, however have made it clear given a choice, they will choose Labour in the vent of hung parliament. One would have though Labour supporters would be happy about that, rather than face the prospect of another 5 years of Cameron. Rather than posture on about how it'll never happen.... It happened at the least election and leaders of parties are temporary if they are a political block...
February 18, 201411 yr Labour are heavily targetting Clegg's constituency in Sheffield: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-25...l-Election.html Clegg will keep his seat imo, despite all the students there, but with a much reduced majority.
February 18, 201411 yr Author It'd be delicious, but it's not happening. Clegg will keep his seat imo, despite all the students there, but with a much reduced majority. There was a poll in that constituency in 2010 by Lord Ashcroft which put Labour 2% behind the Lib Dems (LDs on 33%, Labour 31%, Tories 28%). And the Lib Dems have probably weakened further since then... It would be unusual for the Lib Dems to hold onto this constituency, because, in local elections, the only areas where their vote has been holding up somewhat well is in rural/coastal areas; they've been getting absolutely hammered in (sub)urban areas, especially in the north. Plus, that seat is full of public-sector workers (and even wealthy public-sector workers tend to be very anti-Tory these days). Labour have a chance, though as always that's on the assumption they actually have policies that are different to the Tories'.
February 18, 201411 yr The Lib Dems always sink behind in the polls outside of elections though. I wouldn't expect the Lib Dems to still be doing so badly come 2015 given they fight hyperlocally come election time, and also given Sheffield's one of the few places left where the Lib Dems still have a strong presence on the council and a relatively big activist base as a result. I'd love it if it could happen, but I'm dubious.
February 18, 201411 yr I hate to blow my own trumpet but a local campaign base isn't a great deal of use when you're too terrified to knock on anyone's door. The council having to close local libraries is going to hurt us in Hallam but should be cancelled out by the scheme to basically re-tarmac the whole city which is really popular on the doorstep. It'll come down to student turnout, so it's probably in the Lib Dem interest to try and stop anyone from finding out there's actually an election on.
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