Now I'm CERTAIN "Yes" will win - Dan Hodges, notorious for calling literally everything wrong, has predicted they will lose.

He's such an arse. Doesn't seem to quite understand that issues don't disappear when people vote against them. The AV example is apt, our democracy isn't suddenly perfect because a low turnout referendum voted against a voting system everyone was told they wouldn't understand. I don't think Yes will win, but for that exact reason we shouldn't just assume "well that's that then" and carry on afterwards.

Agree completely. If I'm honest, despite what I've been saying in this thread, I do think "No" will just squeak it THIS TIME, by a margin of <10%, but I expect another independence referendum within 10 years even then. This issue isn't going away, especially while all the mainstream parties continue to only take into account what London and southern England thinks, and arrogantly refuse to represent people from anywhere else in the country (Scotland probably being the example of the part of the country most ignored).

Edited February 7, 201411 yr by Danny

I can't say I noticed that the deficit is a southern issue (I will get around to replying to that Japanese debt post, honest!) - because it's not as if much of anything else Labour talks about is 'southern-centric'.

And of course there's less focus on Scottish issues now - that was kind of the point of devolution.

I can't say I noticed that the deficit is a southern issue (I will get around to replying to that Japanese debt post, honest!) - because it's not as if much of anything else Labour talks about is 'southern-centric'.

 

The deficit is definitely a southern issue (to the limited extent even southerners care about it), as is the assumption that people don't think the rich should pay more tax and the hysteria about benefits claimants. (I'm aware that polls probably show northerners also want benefits "reform" in theory, but as I've said before, in practice even fairly middle-class northerners have solidarity with poorer people and are angered by decent people they know on benefits being hit. And all the evidence seems to point to it being the same in Scotland.) Of all the issues that get the Establishment in a frenzy, immigration is the only one where (sadly) they're pretty much in line with the average northerner's opinion.

 

Another issue is the way the media considers anything that happens in London and the south to be much more important than something that happens anywhere else. That sounds petty, but I can tell you it causes a LOT of resentment.

 

In fairness, I should clarify that by "south", I mean the south-east -- the southwest generally seems to be ignored as well. That railway line in Cornwall that was destroyed by the storms, I bet if it had happened in some middle-class enclave in Surrey then the BBC would've cancelled all their programmes and put on a 6-hour special with recollections and tributes from anyone who had ever travelled on that railway line.

Edited February 7, 201411 yr by Danny

Now I'm CERTAIN "Yes" will win - Dan Hodges, notorious for calling literally everything wrong, has predicted they will lose.

That column is a bigger load of shite than a thread full of posts by Chris and Craig on benefit reform.

The deficit is definitely a southern issue (to the limited extent even southerners care about it), as is the assumption that people don't think the rich should pay more tax and the hysteria about benefits claimants. (I'm aware that polls probably show northerners also want benefits "reform" in theory, but as I've said before, in practice even fairly middle-class northerners have solidarity with poorer people and are angered by decent people they know on benefits being hit. And all the evidence seems to point to it being the same in Scotland.) Of all the issues that get the Establishment in a frenzy, immigration is the only one where (sadly) they're pretty much in line with the average northerner's opinion.

 

Another issue is the way the media considers anything that happens in London and the south to be much more important than something that happens anywhere else. That sounds petty, but I can tell you it causes a LOT of resentment.

 

In fairness, I should clarify that by "south", I mean the south-east -- the southwest generally seems to be ignored as well. That railway line in Cornwall that was destroyed by the storms, I bet if it had happened in some middle-class enclave in Surrey then the BBC would've cancelled all their programmes and put on a 6-hour special with recollections and tributes from anyone who had ever travelled on that railway line.

Even with all the recent rain Surrey doesn't have much of a coast line :P

That column is a bigger load of shite than a thread full of posts by Chris and Craig on benefit reform.

 

That's Dan Hodges for you. :lol: As I say, his prediction should be the most worrying sign for the "No" campaign. He famously (well, "famously" in the circle of Labour political geeks) declared "David Miliband has won" the Labour leadership contest, and has been on a spectacular losing streak ever since. He's predicted Labour to fall behind in the polls about 50 million times over the last few years, he said after the Eastleigh byelection this year that UKIP's result there was a fluke which would never be repeated just a few weeks before they stormed the local elections, he spat his dummy out when Parliament voted against war with Syria and predicted the public would be outraged before it turned out most people agreed it was a ridiculous idea.

 

Afaik, the only prediction he's ever got right is when he predicted Obama to win the 2012 election, and even that was a very close call - Mitt Romney started having a surge on the very day that dear Dan came out for Obama.

That column is a bigger load of shite than a thread full of posts by Chris and Craig on benefit reform.

He gets his facts wrong within a few lines although he is by no means alone. When he talks about the union lasting over 300 years, he seems to forget that most of the island of Ireland left in the last century.

He also seems to forget that technically speaking the United Kingdom is 400 years old thanks to the Union of Crowns that gave our nation is name. (as we all know)

Yeah, but the Union wasn't formalised until 1707, so it's perfectly acceptable to say the union between England, Wales and Scotland's been going for 300 years.

I said technically!

:D

 

Now I'm CERTAIN "Yes" will win - Dan Hodges, notorious for calling literally everything wrong, has predicted they will lose.

Well, Nate Silver said it was ~99% certain No would win, so we've got a 'staple buttered toast to a cat's back and drop it - which side up does it land?' situation here :lol:

:D

Well, Nate Silver said it was ~99% certain No would win, so we've got a 'staple buttered toast to a cat's back and drop it - which side up does it land?' situation here :lol:

 

True, plus of course the fact the Dan Hodges Curse has guaranteed Labour will win the next election is (most likely) an impossibility if he also makes Scotland go independent, so it looks like the curse will have to be broken on atleast one of them.

And probably the most significant event of the whole referendum happened today: all three main parties ruled out allowing Scotland to use the pound in a currency union if they declared independence, meaning their only options would be to join the Euro or leave the EU and create their own currency.

 

Bit of a bullet in the tits for Salmond, given until now he's rather presumptuously insisted an independent Scotland would keep the pound, thereby making the Bank of England a lender of last resort even after independence.

And probably the most significant event of the whole referendum happened today: all three main parties ruled out allowing Scotland to use the pound in a currency union if they declared independence, meaning their only options would be to join the Euro or leave the EU and create their own currency.

 

Bit of a bullet in the tits for Salmond, given until now he's rather presumptuously insisted an independent Scotland would keep the pound, thereby making the Bank of England a lender of last resort even after independence.

Or not....It's both a blow to Salmond and a colossal cruise missile to use against Better Together.

 

The UK Government broke the Edinburgh Agreement by 'Pre-negotiating', their words can also be interpreting as the Rest of the UK preaching at Scotland and telling them what they cannot do despite the public being fairly pro-GBP post Independence.

 

IF, rather WHEN, Salmond properly uses it; I think it will turn out to be a bigger blow to the No than the Yes.

 

You actually forgot one option. We print our own Sterling as it is, there is absolutely NOTHING to stop us to continue to do so after Independence a la Monaco & the Euro.

And probably the most significant event of the whole referendum happened today: all three main parties ruled out allowing Scotland to use the pound in a currency union if they declared independence, meaning their only options would be to join the Euro or leave the EU and create their own currency.

 

Bit of a bullet in the tits for Salmond, given until now he's rather presumptuously insisted an independent Scotland would keep the pound, thereby making the Bank of England a lender of last resort even after independence.

 

Doubt it. The last poll I saw showed only 2% of Scottish people considered currency their biggest concern about independence; other issues are considered much bigger factors. Plus, let's face it, the fact it was George Osborne who announced it will almost inevitably mean it backfires, a promise of a free £10,000 cheque for everyone would be unpopular if it came from his mouth. And Ed Balls and Danny Alexander are hardly any more popular.

Besides, I bet the SNP privately don't even want to keep the pound.

Edited February 13, 201411 yr by Danny

Yeah, I could start a petition for Danny Alexander to be hung at Edinburgh Castle and get signatures from at least 500,000 people.

 

There is about 2m that would sign the Osbourne one! :lol:

 

 

Neither are popular up here. The ginger muppet will lose his seat in 2015.