PRE-EMPTIVE SIDEBAR: I DON'T WANT TO HEAR IT DANNY

 

Wake up call, so much for "core Labour voters" seeing the difference between them and the Tories, etcetc.

I'm glad that we can get these out of the way quickly these days :D

36% turnout at Heywood and Middleton.

 

Lib Dems lose their deposit in Clacton-on-Sea, dropping from 13% in 2010 to barely over 1%. Good night Clegg?

Wake up call, so much for "core Labour voters" seeing the difference between them and the Tories, etcetc.

 

"Core" voters are exactly the ones who don't. The people who have voted Labour for decades out of partisan loyalty feel disenfranchised while we're doing better at attracting voters in swing seats who (generally speaking) often pay a little more daily attention to politics. Which would suggest that there is a big difference between us and the Tories and we're just very bad at conveying to people who've been ignored for twenty years.

 

 

36% turnout at Heywood and Middleton.

 

Lib Dems lose their deposit in Clacton-on-Sea, dropping from 13% in 2010 to barely over 1%. Good night Clegg?

And cheering wildly when they kept it in Heywood, probably the biggest noise of the night (except for when UKIP started heckling the new MP, obviously).

Going back to 10-20 seats might be normal, but you've very effectively demonstrated that going to 5-10% of the vote certainly isn't.

 

assuming that's what they get, and assuming that UKIP are here to stay and arent just yet another temporary protest vote. Come back in ten years ...

 

So what, exactly, are Labour and the Tories going to do about UKIP now...? Any ideas? Flailing about wildly seems to be the current situation, when they should be the main target for both parties.

Well, the other parties could respond to Nigel Fascist Farage's latest outburst...

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/o...nts-out-britain

assuming that's what they get, and assuming that UKIP are here to stay and arent just yet another temporary protest vote. Come back in ten years ...

 

So what, exactly, are Labour and the Tories going to do about UKIP now...? Any ideas? Flailing about wildly seems to be the current situation, when they should be the main target for both parties.

Didn't say anything about UKIP there. And a few comments back I actually said I thought they'd implode before they got to noughties Lib Dem popularity. Are you seriously suggesting that the Lib Dems are going to get much over 10% next year? Because like I said, you've shown that the party has never seen a fall in support like it has over the last four years.

Didn't say anything about UKIP there. And a few comments back I actually said I thought they'd implode before they got to noughties Lib Dem popularity. Are you seriously suggesting that the Lib Dems are going to get much over 10% next year? Because like I said, you've shown that the party has never seen a fall in support like it has over the last four years.

Lib Dem support fell to around 2-3% at the time of the merger although that fall was not as sustained as the current one. Their best hope is that, in the Tory / Lib Dem marginals, potential Labour supporters hold their noses and vote Lib Dem. If not, a lot of Labour voters could wake up the following day to discover they have helped elect a Tory government.

"Core" voters are exactly the ones who don't. The people who have voted Labour for decades out of partisan loyalty feel disenfranchised while we're doing better at attracting voters in swing seats who (generally speaking) often pay a little more daily attention to politics. Which would suggest that there is a big difference between us and the Tories and we're just very bad at conveying to people who've been ignored for twenty years.

And cheering wildly when they kept it in Heywood, probably the biggest noise of the night (except for when UKIP started heckling the new MP, obviously).

 

That is highly questionable in itself, but even so, even most swing seats will have some so-called "core" Labour voters. So even if Labour won over every single floating voter in those seats, if the lifelong working-class Labour voters abandon them then they're still going to be beaten in most of them. And if Labour wants poor people to vote for them, it will simply have to promise them things that will help them, rather than yet more cuts and misery.

That is highly questionable in itself, but even so, even most swing seats will have some so-called "core" Labour voters. So even if Labour won over every single floating voter in those seats, if the lifelong working-class Labour voters abandon them then they're still going to be beaten in most of them. And if Labour wants poor people to vote for them, it will simply have to promise them things that will help them, rather than yet more cuts and misery.

If that's the case then it's not showing in polls. I'm getting enormously frustrated at the lack of real attention being given to working class people (in campaign strategy as much as policy). I'm merely making the point that we could still win like this, I'm not saying I want us to.

Let's just look at that Liberal Democrat vote share in Clacton-on-Sea again: ONE POINT FOUR PERCENT.

 

Disastrous!

Didn't say anything about UKIP there. And a few comments back I actually said I thought they'd implode before they got to noughties Lib Dem popularity. Are you seriously suggesting that the Lib Dems are going to get much over 10% next year? Because like I said, you've shown that the party has never seen a fall in support like it has over the last four years.

 

I didn't say you did, I was badly stating that it's not just Labour and Tories who've lost voters to UKIP, LIbdems must have too. The thing with politics is.. new leaders can often make all the difference. Charles Kennedy did it last time, he was very well-liked and Nick reaped the benefits of that baseline support and the fact that the two main parties weren't trusted. The voters didn't get what they hoped (which was an economic miracle) so they are now desperately trying UKIP, knowing full-well they are doing it to make a point. That won't work either, so the election after next should be the one the Monster Raving Loony Party finally make substantial gains.

 

Other point: Suedehead responded nicely.

Let's just look at that Liberal Democrat vote share in Clacton-on-Sea again: ONE POINT FOUR PERCENT.

 

Disastrous!

 

1951: Liberals 6 MP's or so 2.5% of the vote. Still won't be their worst performance. They bounced back and down and backup and down and back up and very up and very down. Means nothing. PROVIDING UKIP don't get a hold on politics, that is. There will always be room in politics for a sane thoughtful centre-left party, if Labour vacate it...

Edited October 10, 201410 yr by popchartfreak

Lib Dem support fell to around 2-3% at the time of the merger although that fall was not as sustained as the current one. Their best hope is that, in the Tory / Lib Dem marginals, potential Labour supporters hold their noses and vote Lib Dem. If not, a lot of Labour voters could wake up the following day to discover they have helped elect a Tory government.

 

likely to be the case in Annette Brooks seat, sadly, I expect a Tory win with a split anti-tory vote...

likely to be the case in Annette Brooks seat, sadly, I expect a Tory win with a split anti-tory vote...

Annette isn't standing again which will make it even more difficult. However, I did read somewhere that the Lib Dems are putting a lot of money into the seat which would suggest they think very highly of her prospective replacement.

UKIP reach a record high of 25% in a Survation poll. Tories and Labour tied on 31%.

Predictions from Electoral Calculus.

 

FIRST POLL

 

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday found a repeat of the Clacton by-election result next May would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband at No 10.

 

Conservative 31%

Labour 31%

Lib Dem 8%

UKIP 25%

 

Seats

 

National Prediction: LAB short 7 of majority

 

Conservative 278

Labour 319

Lib Dem 22

UKIP 2

 

Although experts think this poll may produce this.

 

 

Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, UKIP 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71. (From Sky News)

 

SECOND POLL

 

 

 

Meanwhile, a poll for The Observer

 

Conservative 28%

Labour 35%

Lib Dem 9%

UKIP 17%

 

 

Seats

 

National Prediction: LAB majority 86

 

Conservative 227

Labour 368

Lib Dem 27

 

UKIP 0

 

Vastly differing polls but the first one seems more realistic.

Edited October 12, 201410 yr by Common Sense

Although experts think this poll may produce this.

Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, UKIP 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71. (From Sky News)

 

If UKIP

 

I'm guessing these "experts" come from the University of Pulling Stuff From Their Rectums. If UKIP get anywhere near 100 seats in the general election, I will change my name by deed poll to Joey Joe Joe Shabadoo Jr.

If UKIP

 

I'm guessing these "experts" come from the University of Pulling Stuff From Their Rectums. If UKIP get anywhere near 100 seats in the general election, I will change my name by deed poll to Joey Joe Joe Shabadoo Jr.

 

 

So will I. :lol: Think they'll get more than the two that the first scenario predicts though. Some expert on BBC news today guessing at 8-12.

Edited October 12, 201410 yr by Common Sense

'Experts' = somebody who thinks interpreting crosstabs makes them an expert, when it just reveals them as a gargantuan moron. They're interpreting it on the basis that the Survation poll had UKIP on 34% in the South East, which would give them over a hundred seats. While neglecting to mention that Survation typically uses samples of 500 people, so a crosstab for the South East alone is going to have a margin of error so large it'll almost be useless.