So will I. :lol: Think they'll get more than the two that the first scenario predicts though. Some expert on BBC news today guessing at 8-12.

Which expert? I would respect an estimate from the likes of Peter Kellner, John Curtice and Rallings / Thrasher. They have all been studying elections for many years and have earned the label "expert".

Rule of thumb: if someone cites 'experts' but doesn't say which one, kill them.

Well I can't remember his name now. Next time I'll write it down. :rolleyes:

Vastly differing polls but the first one seems more realistic.

Erm, no it doesn't.

 

Conservative 278

Labour 319

Lib Dem 22

UKIP 2

Although this probably won't be far off.

Let's have a CRAIG MOMENT and predict the seats and votes for next year (less than seven months omg)

 

CON 51

LAB 19

UKIP 28

LIB 5

 

'craig that adds up to more than 100...'

 

LAB 34 (295)

CON 33 (288)

UKIP 18 (9)

LDEM 11 (25)

GRN 5 (1)

SNP 3 (10)

OTH 6 (4 + NI 18)

 

Let us not imagine consequences

UKIP being in the mix makes this quite difficult to do actually - the first time I did it, I got a Labour majority of 4. *.*

 

34.2% Labour (324, +66)

32.8% Conservative (266, -40)

13.8% UKIP (5, +5)

11.2% Liberal Democrats (26, -31)

04.3% SNP (9, +3)

02.6% Green (1, =)

01.1% Others (19, -3)

how about the nightmare scenario..

 

Tory and Labour on the same number of seats, with UKIP and Libdems on the same number.

 

Then the minority parties become very important in who gets the govern, cos I assume (despite what they say) that Tory/UKIP will drift right, Labour/Libdem left and the rest decide who gets to govern.

 

Highly unlikely scenario, but you never know :o

Let's have a CRAIG MOMENT and predict the seats and votes for next year (less than seven months omg)

 

I miss Craig. :( Wish they'd let him back as I'm sure he'd have some interesting things to say about the election.

Edited October 13, 201410 yr by Common Sense

Oh they'd be interesting alright.. totally wrong of course (the man never made a correct prediction on this forum/in his life probably).

 

I remember when he predicted wages would grow in 2014. :D

Let's have a CRAIG MOMENT and predict the seats and votes for next year (less than seven months omg)

 

CON 51

LAB 19

UKIP 28

LIB 5

 

'craig that adds up to more than 100...'

 

LAB 34 (295)

CON 33 (288)

UKIP 18 (9)

LDEM 11 (25)

GRN 5 (1)

SNP 3 (10)

OTH 6 (4 + NI 18)

 

Let us not imagine consequences

 

Erm, that adds up to 110% :kink:

 

Erm, that adds up to 110% :kink:

 

Yes but politicians are always trying to give 110% effort :lol:

I'm thinking now that the Tories will get a small majority, with Labour possibly dropping back in vote share from 2010. UKIP close to 20% -- everyone keeps saying how they'll lose steam when people are making the choice about the government, but I think it'll be the opposite - the huge media coverage for mainstream politicians will just remind everyone how much they hate them and all their habits.

Erm, that adds up to 110% :kink:

Oh piss!

 

Ignore the voteshares then, go with the seats.

I'm thinking now that the Tories will get a small majority, with Labour possibly dropping back in vote share from 2010. UKIP close to 20% -- everyone keeps saying how they'll lose steam when people are making the choice about the government, but I think it'll be the opposite - the huge media coverage for mainstream politicians will just remind everyone how much they hate them and all their habits.

Where do you think the Tories will gain seats then?

They've got the scope to gain about 15 or so from the Lib Dems, but the idea that they'd lose none to Labour, or gain more than they lose from Labour, while losing none to Ukip, is pretty difficult to imagine. Even at the worst case scenario I just can't see how the Tories can get a majority.

Where do you think the Tories will gain seats then?

 

I can see them picking up a lot of the Lib Dem seats. Suedehead's made the point before that the Lib Dems are holding up better in the Tory/Lib Dem seats, and that might be right, but even so the Lib Dems only need to fall by about 10% for a whole load to flip over to the Conservatives.

 

In the main Labour/Tory marginals, I think it'll be pretty much no change from last time except Labour might pick up a few in London. This is all on the assumption that they stick with Ed and stick with their current terrible policies, obviously (if they changed both those things then who knows since the Tories remain so unpopular).

Edited October 13, 201410 yr by Danny

I can see them picking up a lot of the Lib Dem seats. Suedehead's made the point before that the Lib Dems are holding up better in the Tory/Lib Dem seats, and that might be right, but even so the Lib Dems only need to fall by about 10% for a whole load to flip over to the Conservatives.

 

In the main Labour/Tory marginals, I think it'll be pretty much no change from last time except Labour might pick up a few in London. This is all on the assumption that they stick with Ed and stick with their current terrible policies, obviously (if they changed both those things then who knows since the Tories remain so unpopular).

Well the Tories couldn't get a majority last time despite all the Cashcroft money and it seems David Cameron's main policy to sway people was "I'm not Gordon Brown" and I'm sure that Ed is looking to use that kind of effect this time as well.

 

Plus I do have at least a little faith that normal people wouldn't shoot themselves in the foot THAT badly

I can see them picking up a lot of the Lib Dem seats. Suedehead's made the point before that the Lib Dems are holding up better in the Tory/Lib Dem seats, and that might be right, but even so the Lib Dems only need to fall by about 10% for a whole load to flip over to the Conservatives.

 

In the main Labour/Tory marginals, I think it'll be pretty much no change from last time except Labour might pick up a few in London. This is all on the assumption that they stick with Ed and stick with their current terrible policies, obviously (if they changed both those things then who knows since the Tories remain so unpopular).

 

It's too late now to get rid of Ed. Too near to the election. It would look to the voters, like panicking, which is what it would be really. Ed will fight the GE then either be PM or resign as leader.

I'm thinking now that the Tories will get a small majority, with Labour possibly dropping back in vote share from 2010. UKIP close to 20% -- everyone keeps saying how they'll lose steam when people are making the choice about the government, but I think it'll be the opposite - the huge media coverage for mainstream politicians will just remind everyone how much they hate them and all their habits.

 

Are you taking into account split Tory/UKIP voting which may allow Labour to pick up quite a few seats?

 

if UKIP poll more than 9% of votes in next year’s election, Ed Miliband will become prime minister

Are you taking into account split Tory/UKIP voting which may allow Labour to pick up quite a few seats?

The issue is that any Ukip gains above 12% come proportionally more from Labour than the Tories.