If airlines had accountants with an ounce of common sense they'd have 'call' options on fuel futures which means they could walk away and buy at current market rate (benefiting in the upside risk).

 

You'll see a lot of Call options being placed now on Oil at this current level as airlines seek to secure as much fuel at this low price as they can for as long as they can. Once more this assumes they have decent accountants.

 

Southwest Airlines, aside from being truly amazing, have been absolutely storming the Fuel Hedging game since '98! They've saved billions and as a result have saved consumers billions through lower fares. Now they have some shit hot accountants.

If airlines had accountants with an ounce of common sense they'd have 'call' options on fuel futures which means they could walk away and buy at current market rate (benefiting in the upside risk).

 

You'll see a lot of Call options being placed now on Oil at this current level as airlines seek to secure as much fuel at this low price as they can for as long as they can. Once more this assumes they have decent accountants.

 

Southwest Airlines, aside from being truly amazing, have been absolutely storming the Fuel Hedging game since '98! They've saved billions and as a result have saved consumers billions through lower fares. Now they have some shit hot accountants.

Is that a job application? :lol:

Only if the head of HR for Southwest is reading this. Although that would involved living in Texas and I'm not sure how I feel about that...

 

I spent half of 2014 learning about derivatives and hedging and upside risk etc and given that I have to do it all again from next weekend because I didn't get to sit the exams, it's good to know I haven't entirely forgotten it all!

The Tories are happily promoting the fact that Labour have signed up to Tory economic plans:

Jesus Danny, are you really that bloody naive? The Tories will say anything to try and split the Labour vote. It is totally in their interests to try and mislead somebody that the Greens are the 'only' solution for them.

Jesus Danny, are you really that bloody naive? The Tories will say anything to try and split the Labour vote. It is totally in their interests to try and mislead somebody that the Greens are the 'only' solution for them.

 

That's the point - the Tories, unlike Labour, know what a fatal position it is for Labour to be seen as happy to slash spending, and are going to be exploiting it to the max all the way til polling day and reminding people at every opportunity that Labour are committed to massive spending cuts too. It allows the Tories to (a) say to the many anti-cuts voters* that Labour aren't representing their views so they should vote for a proper anti-cuts party instead; and (b ) allows them to say to everyone else that, since a Labour government will have the same policies as the Tories anyway, you might as well stick with the side that gives you the more competent prime minister.

 

 

*anti-cuts people making up 61% according to the latest poll, with 32% taking a more left-wing position than me by actually wanting to INCREASE spending further (as opposed to just broadly keeping it at current levels) even when it's pointed out this will involve more borrowing: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/14/voters...ting-borrowing/

Edited January 17, 201510 yr by Danny

It's also doesn't take it into account that Ed Miliband is the first leader Labour's had in years so utterly lacking in charisma and valence qualities that he *has* to make an appeal based solely on political positioning - which leaves him walking on a tightrope as every single Labour government ever has won based on a voting coalition of more left-wing voters and more centrist voters, typically bound together from asking too many questions about whether Labour's position at the time fits with their views by the appeal of the leader as a potential Prime Minister. Hence, the side of the argument that you're missing is that the Conservatives are just as much targeting more centrist Labour voters with scaremongering about their spending.

 

If you actually look at what the Tories say to everyone else, they don't say 'Labour just has the same economic policy as us, so vote for the better Prime Minister', because they know at that point they'd be validating Labour and throwing away their trump card of 'a Labour government will crash the economy again, don't take the risk'. What they say (take Osborne's response to Labour voting for the deficit timetable) is that Labour are 'pretending to be economically responsible because they don't want to give away how much they'll put up spending and taxes'. Hence, they're exploiting the weakness of our voting coalition by saying we're all *other* things to all people - saying that if you want to end austerity, vote Green/SNP, and if you want economic responsibility, you can't trust Labour. I really wouldn't take anything about Labour's actual position from what the main opponents to Labour are saying!

It's also doesn't take it into account that Ed Miliband is the first leader Labour's had in years so utterly lacking in charisma and valence qualities that he *has* to make an appeal based solely on political positioning - which leaves him walking on a tightrope as every single Labour government ever has won based on a voting coalition of more left-wing voters and more centrist voters, typically bound together from asking too many questions about whether Labour's position at the time fits with their views by the appeal of the leader as a potential Prime Minister. Hence, the side of the argument that you're missing is that the Conservatives are just as much targeting more centrist Labour voters with scaremongering about their spending.

 

The "centrist voters" who, according to that poll, are overwhelmingly against more cuts. Even when the implications on debt are explicitly pointed out (before you use the "pony polling" thing).

Edited January 17, 201510 yr by Danny

Just to point out, there isn't a disconnect between more centrist voters broadly preferring to have the *same* levels of tax and spend and Tories trying to win their votes by saying Labour want higher taxing and spending. Given the message will almost certainly have been tested to death, presumably there's a reason why that works far better for the Tories than saying to them 'Labour have the same economic plans, vote for the better PM'.

Just to point out, there isn't a disconnect between more centrist voters broadly preferring to have the *same* levels of tax and spend and Tories trying to win their votes by saying Labour want higher taxing and spending. Given the message will almost certainly have been tested to death, presumably there's a reason why that works far better for the Tories than saying to them 'Labour have the same economic plans, vote for the better PM'.

 

But until now you've been dismissing anyone who doesn't think the deficit is an issue / that spending should be kept the same as a "TUSCite"! And have been rejecting any claims that Labour's stance on spending is significantly to the right of public opinion.

 

Also, I genuinely don't think the Tories will be saying "Labour will spend more and tax more" specifically for too much longer. What they WILL be doing is general vague warnings about "Miliband will crash the economy and cause chaos", and that will work because in the public mind, the deficit/spending question and Miliband's competence are two completely separate things -- people think Ed will create a mess just because of his fundamental abilities (or lack thereof), not because of what policies he'd be trying to implement. In other words, to use the rather cruel way I've heard more than one person say it, "I wouldn't trust Miliband to even run a bath". Which is why it's so crazy for Labour to match the Tories on all the big issues, as it shrinks the battleground between the two main parties entirely down to personality and fundamental competence, which Miliband was always going to get slaughtered on.

Edited January 17, 201510 yr by Danny

But until now you've been dismissing anyone who doesn't think the deficit is an issue / that spending should be kept the same as a "TUSCite"! And have been rejecting any claims that Labour's stance on spending is significantly to the right of public opinion.

 

Also, I genuinely don't think the Tories will be saying "Labour will spend more and tax more" specifically for too much longer. What they WILL be doing is general vague warnings about "Miliband will crash the economy and cause chaos", and that will work because in the public mind, the deficit/spending question and Miliband's competence are two completely separate things -- people think Ed will create a mess just because of his fundamental abilities (or lack thereof), not because of what policies he'd be trying to implement. In other words, to use the rather cruel way I've heard more than one person say it, "I wouldn't trust Miliband to even run a bath". Which is why it's so crazy for Labour to match the Tories on all the big issues, as it shrinks the battleground between the two main parties entirely down to personality and fundamental competence, which Miliband was always going to get slaughtered on.

That assumes that the Tories have some electoral instincts this time around.

Panelbase poll in Scotland puts the gap narrowing to 10 points, down from 17 with them last time - SNP 41, Labour 31. Fingers crossed for more of the same from other pollsters...

 

I really wish Ashcroft had done constituency polling in Scotland towards the end of last year so we had more of an idea on any changes...

Jim Murphy has an approval rating of -12% which is absolutely amazing compared to Miliband's. Nicola's is +10% so I wouldn't be holding my breath.

 

⅔ of Scotland says it would never vote for the LibDems. Oops. Adding together the Definitely/Plan votes together puts the Greens into 4th place in Scotland just ahead of UKIP and miles ahead of the LieDems who have sunk to an unprecedented low of 6th. (Source: Sunday Herald, admittedly a pro-SNP paper so sick of being the only one it had to create a mon-fri edition called 'The National' to balance out the press coverage in Scotland)

 

After 8 years of Government these are undeniably good numbers for the SNP. They will profit from the collapse in the LibDem vote. In the i100 today I saw some guy predicting the outcome of the election. The SNP make healthy gains but I think he underestimates the pure unadulterated hatred people feel for the LibDems in Scotland. Post-2010,2011&IndyRef the amount of visible SNP support in NE Fife has exploded. No way the LibDems keep this seat. Especially not with Ming stepping down. The only thing that may hurt the SNP is the closure of the Court in Cupar but none of the local literature I have seen so far even makes reference to it.

 

----

 

Full round up of Sunday's Scottish polling:

 

PANELBASE IN THE SUNDAY TIMES/HEART FM

 

 

 

The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times/Heart FM shows the following results:

 

Party ratings for Westminster:

 

 

 

SNP: 41%

 

Labour: 31%

 

Tory: 14%

 

UKIP: 7%

 

LibDem: 3%

 

Others: 3%

 

 

 

Leadership approval ratings

 

 

 

Nicola Sturgeon: +10%

 

Jim Murphy: -12%

 

David Cameron: -42%

 

Ed Miliband: -46%

 

 

 

Voters also rejected the proposition "...that voting SNP will let in the Tories with the poll finding that more than not (36% compared with 21%) actually think backing the nationalists would do more to help Labour's chances of forming a government..."

 

 

 

Panelbase questioned 1,007 adults in Scotland, 9-14 January 2015

 

 

 

 

 

SURVATION IN THE MAIL ON SUNDAY

 

 

 

To what extent do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be given Alex Salmond's definition of Home Rule, which is the full devolution of all domestic matters apart from foreign affairs and defence:

 

 

 

Agree: 40%

 

Disagree: 35%

 

Neither agree or disagree: 15%

 

Don't Know: 9%

 

 

 

Survation poll of 1,006 Scottish adults for the Mail on Sunday

 

 

 

 

 

YOUGOV FOR SUN ON SUNDAY

 

 

 

Scotland figures (160 polled)

 

 

 

If debates do go ahead, which leaders do you think should be included in the debate?

 

 

 

David Cameron and Ed Miliband: 7%

 

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg: 7%

 

David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage: 7%

 

David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage and Natalie Bennett: 6%

 

David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood: 60%

 

A different combination of leaders: 9%

 

Don't know: 5%

 

 

 

YouGov / Sun on Sunday Survey Results; Sample Size: 1763 GB Adults; Fieldwork: 14th - 15th January 2015

 

 

 

 

 

STATE OF THE NATION REPORT FOR THE SUNDAY HERALD

 

 

 

Findings on voting intentions for General Election:

 

 

 

More than half of Scots (57%) want the Conservatives to leave office and 54% want the LibDems to leave office.

 

 

 

Which party could people vote for:

 

 

 

SNP

 

 

 

Definitely vote for: 34%

 

Plan to vote for: 8%

 

Could vote for: 19%

 

Never vote for: 33%

 

 

 

Labour

 

 

 

Definitely vote for: 13%

 

Plan to vote for: 9%

 

Could vote for: 32%

 

Never vote for: 41%

 

 

 

Tory

 

 

 

Definitely vote for: 8%

 

Plan to vote for: 6%

 

Could vote for: 17%

 

Never vote for: 64%

 

 

 

LibDems

 

 

 

Definitely vote for: 2%

 

Plan to vote for: 3%

 

Could vote for: 24%

 

Never vote for: 66%

 

 

 

UKIP

 

 

 

Definitely vote for: 4%

 

Plan to vote for: 4%

 

Could vote for: 19%

 

Never vote for: 67%

 

 

 

Green

 

 

 

Definitely vote for: 2%

 

Plan to vote for: 7%

 

Could vote for: 34%

 

Never vote for: 53%

 

 

 

Findings on Scottish independence:

 

 

 

The State of the Nation report suggests the SNP has turned the disappointment of the referendum result into a “nationalist surge”:

 

 

 

• 48% of Scots believe independence will happen in 10 years and 18% in 50 years. 17% think it will never happen.

 

 

 

• A quarter of English respondents (24%) believe Scotland will be independent in 10 years, with 20% believing it will happen in 50 years. 28% think it will never happen.

 

 

 

Survey conducted for British Future in November 2014

 

http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2015/...strong-position - If y'all can quote Labourlist imma use the Press Releases of the SNP. They tend to be rather good a printing the raw data below the rhetoric.

I think the most surprising aspect of those polls is that Heart FM commissioned one of them. I thought that the extent of their audience polling would be "What is the best Michael Bolton single".

Ha!

 

160 people is hardly a statistically significant number for the yougov poll. As always I'd be interested to hear whether the people interviewed are based on the whole of Scotland, areas of Scotland, or just those where votes may be tight.

 

Some questions are just "duh!" - half the population wants an unpopular government to leave office. Gosh who would have thought after 7 years of austerity and crisis in the economy that people would think that... more shocking is it's not higher!

 

Of course, everyone can vote secure in the knowledge that the SNP won't be running the country, though they may be able to have power of veto and influence over the next government, which would undoubtedly benefit Scotland. How do people view the big hole in the SNP's budget figures for independence (which they failed to convince with anyway) now that oil looks to have collapsed in price for some time...?

 

That's a question I would like asked, and look forward to seeing revised figures for. The realisation that oil can collapse in price overnight, pretty much, might make voters in Scotland slightly more nervous about going it alone than they already were.

 

 

 

 

If the SNP are quoting crosstabs for Scotland from within UK-wide polls for their press releases, that kind of implies that they aren't particularly good when it comes to handling raw data. Or at least knowing when raw data means anything or not. That said, given Salmond was convinced he'd won on referendum night on the basis of specially hired 'pollsters' from Quebec who took SOCIAL MEDIA into account in their projections (!!), that doesn't say much new.

 

LabourList at least generally call out the leadership when they're not putting their words into action rather than being mindless spinners. It isn't Wings Over Scotland!

If the SNP are quoting crosstabs for Scotland from within UK-wide polls for their press releases, that kind of implies that they aren't particularly good when it comes to handling raw data. Or at least knowing when raw data means anything or not. That said, given Salmond was convinced he'd won on referendum night on the basis of specially hired 'pollsters' from Quebec who took SOCIAL MEDIA into account in their projections (!!), that doesn't say much new.

 

LabourList at least generally call out the leadership when they're not putting their words into action rather than being mindless spinners. It isn't Wings Over Scotland!

Politicians never admit defeat until the evidence is overwhelming. There were Tories on election night in 1997 insisting that all the polls were wrong. They were still saying that their experience on the doorstep was very different. Michael Portillo was still claiming that the result remained in doubt even though he must have known that he was in danger of losing his own (previously safe) seat.

Oh, this wasn't Salmond speaking publicly on the night - he was personally convinced behind the scenes that Yes had won! Pretty much everyone in the Tories in 1997 must have known they'd lost...

If the SNP are quoting crosstabs for Scotland from within UK-wide polls for their press releases, that kind of implies that they aren't particularly good when it comes to handling raw data. Or at least knowing when raw data means anything or not. That said, given Salmond was convinced he'd won on referendum night on the basis of specially hired 'pollsters' from Quebec who took SOCIAL MEDIA into account in their projections (!!), that doesn't say much new.

 

LabourList at least generally call out the leadership when they're not putting their words into action rather than being mindless spinners. It isn't Wings Over Scotland!

If you'd like to take a second to re-read what I said you'll notice I said they were good at printing the raw data. Never said anything about how they handled the data or on the contents of the press release. Just that they were good at printing the raw data. No need to read something more into this.

Oh, this wasn't Salmond speaking publicly on the night - he was personally convinced behind the scenes that Yes had won! Pretty much everyone in the Tories in 1997 must have known they'd lost...

Some time after that election, John Major claimed that he only knew he'd lost some time on election night. By contrast, Neil Kinnock admitted that he knew he had lost in 1992 at the beginning of the week of the election.

Wait, so a plurality of people thought that voting SNP over Labour would increase the chances of a Labour government?

 

I could see the case for Sturgeon and Wood being on the debates if it wasn't possible to have a Scottish debate and a Welsh one. Last time I checked it was perfectly possible.