Coldplay still in the top 10! 'Sky Full of Stars' has exceeded my expectations so much.

 

It got made 59p :P

 

I'm really glad too though.

It's only taken a DAY ( :drama: ) but Ariana is finally back at #10. Hope she hasn't lost too many sales :\ (Also at #156 & #1097)

 

Ella Eyre is going to be at #11 on Sunday, isn't she? :( One of my songs of the year, so I'll be gutted if she misses the top 10!

FKA Twigs - Two Weeks at #217. Would very much like this to be a hit!

Hopefully Ariana struggling to go top 10 on iTunes could allow Nicole to overtake her in the midweeks! If Nicole could remain ahead of Ariana until tonight I'm sure 'Your Love" will peak at 5 which is a good result tbh!

I see no reason why she couldn't be #4 on Sunday, but whatever happens it's not done too badly.

 

(Unless the chart run is dire, which is a possibility)

It's going to be very exciting tonight and tomorrow, obviously Cheryl will enter iTunes straight at #1 with MAGIC! at #2, it just depends if MAGIC! can continue to use the advantage they have at the moment and catch up Cheryl's lead.

I'm pretty confident that not enough damage will have been done to 'Problem' for it to end up charting below 'Your Love'. 'Your Love' seems destined to end up charting below 'Me And My Broken Heart' (obviously), 'It's My Birthday', 'Ghost' and 'Budapest' anyway. We'll see! I'm thinking #6 for it, or #5 at best.

It's disappointing that Chery's record company haven't made the track available for streaming for the past couple of weeks. I wonder if they have this misguided idea that holding it back on streaming will mean they get this huge first week impact on that, but it's just not the way it works. Rude has such a huge advantage on streaming and will easily pick up thousands of extra sales next week because of the momentum they've built up.

 

Personally, Rude does nothing for me at all. I don't see why it's such a massive hit in the making (already huge in the US) and I'd love Cheryl to get her 4th number 1, but it's not looking promising for her at the moment.

Edited July 19, 201410 yr by PaulM1983

pre-order update

 

23. Rude - MAGIC!

29. Crazy Stupid Love (feat. Tinie Tempah) - Cheryl Cole

64. Am I Wrong - Nico & Vinz

95. Faded - ZHU

105. Jungle (Remix) [feat. Jay-Z] - X Ambassadors & Jamie N Commons

113. Boom Clap - Charli XCX

122. Always (feat. Alana) [Route 94 Radio Edit] - MK

124. Louder - Neon Jungle

151. Love Runs Out - OneRepublic

175. Kisses For Breakfast (feat. Popcaan) - Melissa Steel

176. Lovers on the Sun (feat. Sam Martin) - David Guetta

191. Hopeful - Bars and Melody

214. RariWorkOut (feat. JME & Tempa T) - Lethal Bizzle

215. Won't Look Back (Radio Edit) - Duke Dumont

220. Down On My Luck - Vic Mensa

261. My Head Is a Jungle (MK Remix) [Radio Edit] - Wankelmut & Emma Louise

306. Giant In My Heart - Kiesza

378. Walking With Elephants - Ten Walls

388. Changing (feat. Paloma Faith) - Sigma

426. Home (feat. SAM ROMANS) - Naughty Boy

508. One Day (Vandaag) [Radio Edit] - Bakermat

571. Uptight Downtown - La Roux

583. Prayer In C (Robin Schulz Radio Edit) - Lilly Wood & Robin Schulz

600. Tonight (We Live Forever) - Union J

659. Liberate - Eric Prydz

754. Sirens - Cher Lloyd

857. Maps - Maroon 5

926. Stranger (feat. Mikky Ekko) - Chris Malinchak

 

1012. New Flame (feat. Usher & Rick Ross) - Chris Brown

1275. Ugly Heart - G.R.L.

1341. Emotion (Ain't Nobody) - Maverick Sabre

1419. Tough Love - Jessie Ware

1494. Home (feat. will.i.am) - Leah McFall

1495. No Mediocre (feat. Iggy Azalea) - T.I.

I saw 'Home' at 426 there and thought to myself "Oooh, Leah's picked up a little bit" before seeing it's actually Naughty Boy and she's much lower down.

 

So depressing. :(

Pleased to see 'Crazy Stupid Love' within the Top 30! Surely Cheryl can at least give Magic! a run for their money, even though they've been ahead of her for a few days? I don't think it'll be a massive sales gap if they do beat her. Give or take about 4 days, Cheryl's been inside the Top 100 since early June, which is impressive.

Really hoping Neon Jungle at least manage another Top 10, Louder has grown on me so much recently :wub:.

Now we are on the final day before release, we can work out the most accurate pre-order figures possible as we no longer have to make projections for this week's chart positions. So the final pre-order estimates are:

 

Crazy Stupid Love

Total iTunes pre-orders estimate: 15,145

 

Rude

Total iTunes pre-orders estimate: 10,270

 

We should see quite a convincing lead on iTunes for Cheryl tonight according to these figures, but considering we are expecting these songs to sell upwards of 120k, the pre-order are really quite unimportant - especially considering the lead is less than 5k. That said, I'd still expect Cheryl to be #1 next week with MAGIC! probably taking the #1 the week after. Full calculations below:

 

Week commencing | iTunes chart run | Average chart position | Total sales for that position that week*** | Estimated iTunes pre-orders*

 

June 01 | x, 45, 58, 97, 200, x, x | 100** | 2,200 | 1,430

June 08 | 52, 56, 62, 62, 59, 64, 72 | 61 | 3,400 | 2,210

June 15 | 76, 78, 69, 65, 74, 71, 69 | 72 | 2,700 | 1,755

June 22 | 65, 70, 74, 81, 75, 83, 86 | 76 | 2,500 | 1,625

June 29 | 81, 99, 78, 71, 68, 67, 65 | 76 | 2,700 | 1,755

July 06 | 63, 67, 62, 58, 50, 50, 52 | 57 | 4,200 | 2,730

July 13 | 53, 50, 46, 48, 46, 34, 29 | 44 | 5,600 | 3,640

 

Week commencing | iTunes chart run | Average chart position | Total sales for that position that week*** | Estimated iTunes pre-orders*

 

June 22 | x, 159, 190, x, 183, 185, x | 179** | 1,100 | 715

June 29 | x, x, 148, 113, 90, 71, 83 | 101** | 2,000 | 1,300

July 06 | 84, 59, 46, 43, 40, 40, 43 | 51 | 4,700 | 3,055

July 13 | 47, 44, 38, 31, 25, 24, 23 | 33 | 8,000 | 5,200

 

*estimated 65% share of total sales according to UK Mix

**this discounts the positions outside of the top 200

***sometimes estimated using sales figures that are closest to the position we need

Royals might get a boost because of this:

 

Really hoping Neon Jungle at least manage another Top 10, Louder has grown on me so much recently :wub:.

 

I really badly want it to as well, but can see it landing in the 11-13 region. :(

The advert for the new Now That's What I Call Music is out now:

 

It might be the first time that only number one songs have featured in one of these adverts.

 

Now we are on the final day before release, we can work out the most accurate pre-order figures possible as we no longer have to make projections for this week's chart positions. So the final pre-order estimates are:

 

Crazy Stupid Love

Total iTunes pre-orders estimate: 15,145

 

Rude

Total iTunes pre-orders estimate: 10,270

 

We should see quite a convincing lead on iTunes for Cheryl tonight according to these figures, but considering we are expecting these songs to sell upwards of 120k, the pre-order are really quite unimportant - especially considering the lead is less than 5k. That said, I'd still expect Cheryl to be #1 next week with MAGIC! probably taking the #1 the week after. Full calculations below:

 

Thanks a lot for your work, it is much appreciated. :)

 

Would you be a able to do a rough estimate of what MAGIC!'s streaming is going to equal sales wise for next week?

I see MAGIC! had 4,445 sales last week from streaming only. I guess they will do more this week, maybe something like 7k? And Cheryl probably something like 2k due to late addition and probably not the same streaming appeal as MAGIC! ?

Edited July 19, 201410 yr by Hayzayy

The advert for the new Now That's What I Call Music is out now:

 

It might be the first time that only number one songs have featured in one of these adverts.

Now 86:

(Somewhere Only We Know, Roar, Counting Stars, Wake Me Up, Burn, Look Right Through, Animals)

Thanks a lot for your work, it is much appreciated. :)

Would you be a able to do a rough estimate of what MAGIC!'s streaming is going to equal sales wise for next week?

 

No problem!

 

I'll give it a go based on the few figures we have! MAGIC! managed 482k streams in the week ending July 13th (which is slightly different to the streams given in the official chart), but less than 250k streams the week before as it wasn't in the top 50. For the current week, 'Rude' has been between #6 and #10 in the Spotify chart that updates daily so if we use this to say that 'Rude' will be #8 (in the middle of #6 and #10) in the chart week ending July 20th, this would give 'Rude' around 675k streams based on the previous week's chart.

 

So for the last 3 weeks 'Rude' will have gone from less than 250k > 482k > ~675k so you would probably estimate between 850k and 900k streams for next week based on the trend from the last few weeks. So I would estimate MAGIC! will achieve around 9,000 sales units from streaming next week that will contribute to their chart battle against Cheryl. Hope that helps!

 

EDIT: Just seen your new comment, but yes I agree! It's looking like between 6,500 and 7,000 sales units this week and then around 9,000 next week in the chart battle against Cheryl. I'm not sure how long it takes for new releases to take off on streaming, but to pick a figure out the air, I'd suggest a good comparison would be the first week streams of 'Problem' (which was around 7,000) as I think 'Problem' was only available to stream once available on iTunes but I could be wrong.

EDIT: Just seen your new comment, but yes I agree! It's looking like between 6,500 and 7,000 sales units this week and then around 9,000 next week in the chart battle against Cheryl. I'm not sure how long it takes for new releases to take off on streaming, but to pick a figure out the air, I'd suggest a good comparison would be the first week streams of 'Problem' (which was around 7,000) as I think 'Problem' was only available to stream once available on iTunes but I could be wrong.

 

Thanks man! I was afraid the gap on streams could be even bigger. If it's only something like 2-3k it's ok, if it's something like 7k, it will be near to impossible for her to get #1.

I agree she will need to have a pretty solid lead at #1 tomorrow on iTunes if she wants any chance to win that battle.

Yeah I think if Cheryl has a sales lead of over 5k, then she should hang on to the lead with streaming taken into account but any less than that then it will be very very close!