Hi everyone, hopefully no one has had the same idea as me, but I have had this prediction game where players can predict the top 100 chart run for a single which has debuted in the top 100. Here are the basic rules:

 

Rules

• Predict any songs in the current top 100 which has debuted in the top 100 for the first week, but was not in the 1-100 range the previous week.
• You may only predict the songs between Sunday 4PM (top 100 published 7PM) until Tuesday 4PM (midweek chart). You may NOT predict after the 4PM, this includes editing your posts!
• You must predict the positions for each week you think the song will be at. You can predict as many weeks as you like.
• Every Sunday evening (sometimes through Monday), I will post in this thread the allowed single runs to predict. You may predict runs for all or some of them. As each week passes, the positions per week are compared and the scores are documented.

Scoring

Because the debut position is NOT predicted, the other weeks predicted are compared by position to the position the single was at on that week. A correct match is 50 points (meaning the same position predicted at and its resulting position on the same week), and each position difference is 1 point off of 50. For example, predicting song X to be at 63 on its 12th week when it actually ends on 80 awards the player 33 points, because the player was 17 positions off, so 50-17 is 33. Each position predicted per week is calculated this way, so when the run has been completed (it can take months), the scores are totalled by week to a grand total.

Also, predicting correctly when the song drops out awards 50 points. Each extra week predicted is -2 points and each week not predicted while it stays in the chart is also -2 points.

 

Example

It's always easier explaining games by example. :P

 

Song A is currently new at 5. You may predict the position in the chart it will be the following week, and consecutive weeks after that, until you predict it will drop out of the top 100. You have until 4:00PM on Tuesday to predict the song's ENTIRE top 100 chart run until it leaves the top 100. Remember you cannot change any of your predictions for that single after the deadline.

 

Each week you must compare the position you predicted the song to be at against the song's actual position. See the scoring section above for how to score. If you predict the song to drop out too early, each week the song stays in the chart after the predicted dropout week is minus 2 off your score. If the song you predict drops out earlier than predicted, each extra week you predicted in the chart is also minus 2. You must do the whole chart run predictions for that single BEFORE the Chart Update, and you have until then to alter your predictions as well.

 

 

If the song re-enters while your predict run is still predicted in the chart, you will still be given points for the matches. But if you predict it to dropout during that re-entry period, you still get -20!

 

Remember, the debut position (the first week) is NEVER predicted.

 

Week Predicted Position Actual Position [Collapse] Points taken

Week 1 N/A 4 N/A

Week 2 9 7 48

Week 3 10 7 47

Week 4 17 9 42

Week 5 20 16 46

Week 6 22 18 46

Week 7 28 24 46

Week 8 26 26 50

Week 9 26 31 45

Week 10 33 41 42

Week 11 39 47 42

Week 12 45 50 45

Week 13 56 65 40

Week 14 76 51 25

Week 15 OUT 39 -2

Week 16 OUT 53 -2

Week 17 89 78 39

Week 18 99 OUT -2

Total Score: 597

 

In this example, the single dropped out at W15, but the player didn't predict it to on that week, therefore, that week scored -2 points as well as the next week. However, it re-entered the next week while the player predicted, so points were earned on that week. Week 18 saw the player predict it to dropout but it was actually in the chart on that week, so that week also scores -2.

 

Player Scores

http://i.imgur.com/1cP39h0.jpg

 

By Week

20/09/14

27/09/14

04/10/14

11/10/14

18/10/14

25/10/14

01/11/14 (current)

Edited December 15, 201410 yr by SNOWING ADAM

this game seems a bit complicated but I'll probably get the hang of it soon :P. I'm not sure how many people would actually be playing this as it's never been done before but you may as well give it a go.

this game seems a bit complicated but I'll probably get the hang of it soon :P. I'm not sure how many people would actually be playing this as it's never been done before but you may as well give it a go.

 

Thanks! I'll show you how to play in detail on Sunday!

GAME 1 - Week Ending 20/09/2014

 

http://i.imgur.com/lqBwzRB.png

Edited September 29, 201410 yr by hotchoc26

I'll give it a try :) Seems very complicated

 

Blame

01-03-05-10-16-20-27-39-40-42-48-56-67-70-71-79-86-OUT

 

I think it's quite hard to predict the long-range of the songs

 

New Flame

 

10-20-26-34-38-42-46-59-72-OUT

 

Walking With Elephants

 

06-16-27-45-61-78-OUT

 

Centuries

 

25-21-23-29-36-42-48-62-80-OUT

Edited September 16, 201410 yr by Neil. S

(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

1-3-7-10-12-14-17-18-25-23-28-32-34-37-42-41-47-50-54-52-57-60-62-69-66-73-80-82-88-92-90-98-OUT>32

 

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

6-14-25-37-55-78-90-OUT>7

 

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME

10-16-23-27-34-40-53-62-75-83-97-OUT>11

 

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES

22-19-25-32-38-45-50-53-56-70-66-73-78-78-86-91-94-100-OUT>17

 

this is just guessing :lol: I'll probably be wrong for a lot of them

It's really not as complex as it may seem, though the scoring theory may look complicated but that is my job :P , the role of the players certainly isn't. ^_^

I only wanted to predict Blame and WWE since I have no idea what the others will do. :blink:

 

CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

1-4-6-6-10-16-26-22-28-28-29-35-39-40-46-43-56-67-67-69-75-57-71-75-80-75>26

 

TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

6-11-14-19-22-29-27-34-37-40-52-59-65-72-79>15

(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

 

1-4-7-8-10-11-15-17-22-27-37-43-48-49-56-57-56-57-56-65-66-76-89-100-99-91-76-50-87-89-90-92-94-96-95-100-97-x

 

 

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

 

6-13-20-31-40-50-65-87-100-99-100-99-100-99-x

 

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME

 

10-9-11-18-21-23-25-27-29-31-34-37-40-51-67-80-91-90-92-76-78-79-80-x

 

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES

 

22-27-45-56-76-87-89-90-91-92-93-x

 

Hope that's correct and all~

I originally didn't allow entries for debuts in the 41-100 range, because it would often be a good chance of it dropping out the next week, therefore predicting it to do so would only get you a few points. If anyone thinks this should be introduced, I may reconsider B-)

By the way, thanks for showing interest in the game guys, I wasn't expecting this many players and it's only been 5 hours or so! :dance:

Very confused but I'd love to participate! Just as a suggestion maybe you can have us predict the Top 40 runs? I feel like that could capture the essence of the game without creating too much confusion for the player.

 

Calvin Harris ft. John Newman - Blame

 

1-4-6-6-9-13-18-25-31-40-46-53-58-59-64-72-77-83-89-94-97-x

 

Ten Walls - Walking With Elephants

 

6-18-29-37-50-61-68-77-89-96-x

 

Chris Brown - New Flame

 

10-23-31-34-39-45-56-69-73-79-85-92-97-x

 

Fall Out Boy - Centuries

 

22-26-44-37-32-39-51-67-81-89-94-x

Very confused but I'd love to participate! Just as a suggestion maybe you can have us predict the Top 40 runs? I feel like that could capture the essence of the game without creating too much confusion for the player.

 

Calvin Harris ft. John Newman - Blame

 

1-4-6-6-9-13-18-25-31-40-46-53-58-59-64-72-77-83-89-94-97-x

 

Ten Walls - Walking With Elephants

 

6-18-29-37-50-61-68-77-89-96-x

 

Chris Brown - New Flame

 

10-23-31-34-39-45-56-69-73-79-85-92-97-x

 

Fall Out Boy - Centuries

 

22-26-44-37-32-39-51-67-81-89-94-x

 

I'm not sure i completely understand your post. Did you mean you suggested predicting any top 40 song regardless of its status? :unsure:

 

I've updated the first post rules and example if it helps with all the confusion :D

Edited September 15, 201410 yr by hotchoc26

Interesting concept. Let me give it a shot :D

 

Calvin Harris Ft. John Newman - Blame

 

1-3-4-7-11-14-16-20-24-29-34-41-44-49-58-58-66-71-77-84-92-99-OUT > 22

 

 

Ten Walls - Walking With Elephants

 

6-14-21-29-39-50-62-79-98-OUT > 9

 

 

Chris Brown Ft. Usher & Rick Ross - New Flame

 

10-10-14-19-26-30-37-45-54-62-68-72-79-86-91-98-OUT > 16

 

 

Fall Out Boy - Centuries

 

22-25-32-45-53-65-76-87-OUT > 8

Edited September 15, 201410 yr by soundseekerz

(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

1-3-5-6-9-13-14-17-18-22-16-20-23-26-31-35-38-41-40-38-43-49-56-64-69-66-75-77-82-86-93-99-OUT 32 Weeks

 

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

6-16-33-54-72-97-OUT 6 Weeks

 

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME

10-17-23-27-29-38-47-61-73-85-88-96-OUT 12 Weeks

 

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES

22-25-26-33-44-51-57-66-76-87-99-OUT 11 Weeks

(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

1-4-7-12-16-22-28-35-43-55-60-72-75-89-OUT>14

 

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

6-16-23-38-54-78-OUT>6

 

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME

10-18-22-25-29-33-41-49-53-60-72-80-92-OUT>13

 

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES

22-38-45-52-66-87-OUT>6

 

 

(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

1-3-3-4-5-8-7-11-14-15-20-22-18-26-27-29-33-30-35-36-39-43-45-48-51-57-60-64-65-59-66-67-73-75-83-86-90-82-85-97-OUT (40 weeks)

 

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

6-18-30-28-23-29-35-35-45-50-53-61-66-74-72-88-85-99-OUT (18 weeks)

 

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME

10-11-15-22-23-25-31-29-41-45-51-54-67-63-81-95-OUT (17 weeks)

 

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES

22-30-37-30-25-40-50-66-87-86-OUT (10 weeks)

 

I'm probably wildly overestimating some of these!

I don't have a clue what I'm doing but I thought I'd try!

 

Blame:

1-3-4-4-7-10-13-15-16-18-21-22-25-28-29-32-36-40-43-45-49-55-53-60-64-63-67-73-78-80-77-82-85-88-93-97-x-x-98-x-x-x-x-100-97-x -> 39 weeks

 

Walking With Elephants:

6-15-24-29-37-41-45-49-48-50-52-49-51-55-54-59-62-65-64-70-75-77-82-80-86-94-x -> 26 weeks

 

New Flame:

10-25-39-55-68-79-85-91-x -> 8 weeks

 

Centuries:

22-26-28-25-22-21-23-27-30-33-37-40-45-50-56-63-62-70-75-75-81-83-82-88-91-95-97-x-x-100-x -> 28 weeks

Edited September 16, 201410 yr by Rush

I'm not sure i completely understand your post. Did you mean you suggested predicting any top 40 song regardless of its status? :unsure:

 

I've updated the first post rules and example if it helps with all the confusion :D

He means it would be far easier if we only had to predict the part of the chart run where the song is in the top 40

He means it would be far easier if we only had to predict the part of the chart run where the song is in the top 40

 

I wasn't going to consider doing that because it seemed more 'fun' to have to predict the tip 100 runs. I've decided next week to allow predicting ANY debut to the Top 100... :yahoo:

The game is now CLOSED to any new players wanting to predict the singles for Game 1. Remember, the predicted runs will have to wait until both the actual song drops out and the predicted run is predicted to drop out by the player. I plan to upload an image of a table from Excel to show clearly the predicted runs, scores and the actual runs and update them weekly. :)

Rush, I've noticed you have predicted re-entries for some of your singles. May I remind you that you only predict up until it drops out for the first time, so your predicted run up until your first 'x' is the run you are playing ^_^