But the UKIP vote was up 1% while the Tories are down 1%, so surely that suggests any switching is actually the opposite way?

 

Not compared with 2 years ago it isn't, which is the key point. Without UKIP supporters switching there would have been a Labour win in the last GE (even taking into account those who switched to Labour)...

But the UKIP vote was up 1% while the Tories are down 1%, so surely that suggests any switching is actually the opposite way?

Those differences are well within the margin of error.

Yes and that threat will ensure Labour lose the next election too unless they change leader. Another hung parliament with Tories largest party is my prediction.

 

Wrong.

 

More fake Establishment polls.

 

Survation shows Labour dominating.

 

Sorry Tories.

Those differences are well within the margin of error.

 

Which also means that PCF's suggestions are negated by that same factor.

Wrong.

 

More fake Establishment polls.

 

Survation shows Labour dominating.

 

Sorry Tories.

 

So what you're saying is : you pick the polls *you* want to believe - but isn't that what caught out the Tories before the last GE? ;)

Which also means that PCF's suggestions are negated by that same factor.

64% of 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory in 2017. That's well above the margin of error.

64% of 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory in 2017. That's well above the margin of error.

 

I've been looking for stats on voter churn for ages - where did they finally post them?

So what you're saying is : you pick the polls *you* want to believe - but isn't that what caught out the Tories before the last GE? ;)

 

Nope.

 

These polls are from Westminster Tory insiders.

 

Survation is far more accurate.

Nope.

 

These polls are from Westminster Tory insiders.

 

Survation is far more accurate.

 

But if the last GE proves anything, it is that polls that tell you what you want to hear are worse than useless, so why would parties continue to commission such polls (if they ever did, which I doubt).

 

As for accuracy, that's not a big deal in mid-term when there won't be an election depending on it. It is the trend that matters more, and that can be picked up from poll to poll by the same company, regardless of how the actual numbers compare to those of other polling companies.

I've been looking for stats on voter churn for ages - where did they finally post them?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/22/how-di...t-2017-general/

Which also means that PCF's suggestions are negated by that same factor.

 

Re-read my comments. I made no assumptions on that poll, my suggestions/opinion was based on the previous general election, pre-Referendum, and the GE post-Referendum. Y'know, FACTS.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/22/how-di...t-2017-general/

 

Thank you for that! :cheer:

 

Re-read my comments. I made no assumptions on that poll, my suggestions/opinion was based on the previous general election, pre-Referendum, and the GE post-Referendum. Y'know, FACTS.

 

I apologise for that assumption, then.

 

But if the last GE proves anything, it is that polls that tell you what you want to hear are worse than useless, so why would parties continue to commission such polls (if they ever did, which I doubt).

 

As for accuracy, that's not a big deal in mid-term when there won't be an election depending on it. It is the trend that matters more, and that can be picked up from poll to poll by the same company, regardless of how the actual numbers compare to those of other polling companies.

Parties commission polls all the time. However, they tend to be more detailed (and, of course, more expensive) than those commissioned by the press. They ask a lot more questions about policy, the answers to which they can use to predict voting intentions.

Parties commission polls all the time. However, they tend to be more detailed (and, of course, more expensive) than those commissioned by the press. They ask a lot more questions about policy, the answers to which they can use to predict voting intentions.

 

Yes, but those polls are not released to the public, so it doesn't matter if they are partisan.

Yes, but those polls are not released to the public, so it doesn't matter if they are partisan.

Who said they were partisan? The whole point of the parties' research is to get an accurate gauge of public opinion. What would be the point of commissioning polls to give them the results they want and then keeping them to themselves?

OTOH UKIP at 4% suggests that actually them switching to the Tories is what is keeping the Tories vote up, as the anti-EU voters remain ever-hopeful that they won't be proven to be completely wrong.

 

Agreed, and this graphic kind of supports that argument.

 

 

Once Brexit negotiations are completed I expect that we will see some dramatic movements (predictions for 2018/2019!)

It'll be interesting to see how the upcoming budget will affect the polls. It appears there may be beneficial changes to student loan repayment and the public sector pay cap. There are some other big issues that, if tackled, could boost the conservatives - sorting out the universal credit mess, housing, more money for the NHS etc.

It'll be interesting to see how the upcoming budget will affect the polls. It appears there may be beneficial changes to student loan repayment and the public sector pay cap. There are some other big issues that, if tackled, could boost the conservatives - sorting out the universal credit mess, housing, more money for the NHS etc.

In other words, they could benefit by trying to resolve problems they created in the first place.

In other words, they could benefit by trying to resolve problems they created in the first place.

 

oh how the truth hurts... :lol:

oh how the truth hurts... :lol:

 

Would you prefer they not be solved, though?