Here's a good OAOS comparison - both debuted the same week, one OAOS and the other held back:

 

Cavlin Harris + Disciples “How Deep Is Your Love”

CR: 7-6-{2}-2-3-4-4-4-3-4-7-9-11-14-17-17-21-23-22-23-26-30-33* (23 weeks so far)

Sales: 771,000

 

John Newman “Come And Get It”

CR: {5}-14-21-27-36-52-45-60-68-75 (10 weeks)

Sales: ~200,000

 

Initially John Newman is happiest because he has beaten Calvin by 2 places on the chart, but oh.. the following week he has fallen out of the Top 10 and now Calvin is out-peaking him.

 

I agree that the Calvin Harris one has done amazingly well, but I don't agree that the John Newman one hasn't because it was held back. Do you think it'd have sold more had it been OAOS? Then why did the OAOS follow-up Tiring Game (which IMHO was actually a better record) peak at #106?

Yeah the John Newman song wouldn't have done much / any better as On Air...it probably would have done even worse. Look at Tiring Game which actually was on air (and arguably better). Calvin just happened to smash it out of the park with one of his best songs ever.

It's difficult to say because it is impossible to compare different release strategies for the same song, however I'd agree with your suggestion that it works better for bigger artists- but this is only because radio is much more likely to support them and initial fan base buys get them greater visibility. UK radio need to be a lot better at supporting a wider variety of songs, and they are getting better at that.

I think songs should be on Spotify as soon as it's sent out to radio to build up it's streams, then release it after a month of building airplay, streams and pre orders.

I think songs should be on Spotify as soon as it's sent out to radio to build up it's streams, then release it after a month of building airplay, streams and pre orders.

 

 

I think so too, or even 3 weeks.

It's difficult to say because it is impossible to compare different release strategies for the same song, however I'd agree with your suggestion that it works better for bigger artists- but this is only because radio is much more likely to support them and initial fan base buys get them greater visibility. UK radio need to be a lot better at supporting a wider variety of songs, and they are getting better at that.

 

So how is it the record labels' fault, and how have they brought it on themselves if they want to apply the best strategy for any particular release? They are a business at the end of the day, and if they stand to lose out because of radio politics then they've got to utilise the best model they can.

I don't actually agree that it does work everywhere else in the world. The U.S. has of course always been different, and it can take months for records to build there. But in many major European territories it has also become more difficult for new or less-established acts to chart, than it was 10 years ago or so.

 

Yes, streaming is a huge part of the reason why download sales are decreasing. But without a build-up of demand, there's no big first week sales (with the obvious exceptions), and records aren't building up steam over a number of weeks as you might expect - they're just selling in far smaller quantities, for, if they're lucky, a slightly longer period than they would've done.

 

If OAOS isn't working as well as it should, then the blame has to lay more with the media being so reluctant to jump on new releases. I don't see why the record companies have brought it on itself. They want this to work.

 

I think you need to look at Little Mix, they obviously have a solid fanbase and a held back record of theirs can probably go top 10 but Love me like you has shown that a more spread out release instead of everything impacting first week and then falling fast has hugely helped the single and the album.

 

Love me like you is going to be their 2nd longest running single in the top 40 tomorrow and could well become their 2nd biggest single sales wise in the long run.

 

It has sustained their album in the top 10 too.

 

In my mind there is no doubt if you put a single up for pre-order for 5 weeks you will lose sales through people downloading illegally or streaming it that would just download it if it was on sale from the get go. Also something has to be at the top of the charts, so if everything is getting OA/OS the songs that eventually rise to the top will be getting the exposure and those that don't obviously didn't connect with the public.

 

 

 

 

 

well OA/OS obviously works for big name artists like Calvin Harris, Little Mix, One Direction, Justin Bieber etc. but some songs really do need the held-back treatment.

 

Sigala's 'Sweet Lovin' is doing really well now, it's top 10 on both iTunes and Spotify. This very likely wouldn't be the case if it was OA/OS.

We now live in an age where people have instant access to stream new music or view it on Youtube, so it's become increasingly ridiculous and essentially utterly pointless to have to wait a month or two months to buy it.

 

Record companies can drop OA/OS again if they like but the 'holding back' model is tired and redundant and isn't going to work anymore imo. The bigger streaming gets, and the smaller sales get, the less impact held back releases will have, because essentially within a few months time they'll need to overcome a 30k deficit just to get into the top ten on release week.

 

So in this transition period, yes it's undoubteldy helped John Newman, Philip George and Sigala into the top five (though I don't agree that Sweet Lovin' would have stalled in the top 40, I think it would have done at least as well as The Girl Is Mine with an OA/OS release) but that's exactly what this is - a transition period. Download sales are still quickly dying and streams are still increasing. I'd wager that MOS/AATW held back releases won't be able to garner enough support to debut in the top ten come a year from now, rendering the release model completely redundant. They may as well have a 45-35-24-30-35 run than a 12-28-52 run, because at the end of the day, when you're missing the top ten anyway - which they will - it will make little difference to anyone.

Edited December 31, 201510 yr by gooddelta

So how is it the record labels' fault, and how have they brought it on themselves if they want to apply the best strategy for any particular release? They are a business at the end of the day, and if they stand to lose out because of radio politics then they've got to utilise the best model they can.

 

Not just the record companies, massive radio conglomerates like Global Radio who refuse to playlist songs that go up for sale immediately.

 

In 2011 the FAA said As an industry, we're either in favour of a world where artists, labels and managers hold back releases to manipulate the charts, or we're in favour of a world where licensed download services are the first port of call for new music. Which is it?"

 

They made their choice and now they have to live with it IMO.

well OA/OS obviously works for big name artists like Calvin Harris, Little Mix, One Direction, Justin Bieber etc. but some songs really do need the held-back treatment.

 

Sigala's 'Sweet Lovin' is doing really well now, it's top 10 on both iTunes and Spotify. This very likely wouldn't be the case if it was OA/OS.

 

I would argue held back releases only give a 'false' chart placement and then never reflect the true popularity of the release. The Saturdays were a prime example of this, held back releases with multiple formats etc a week in the top 10 then out for most of their singles and then people wonder why they cant flog an album to save their life.

I like to know where the next #1 track is going to come from, hardly any new releases for the month of January, could be a climber, love to see Grace getting there, maybe Snakehips could climb very slowly to the top 'All My Friends' is not that bad, otherwise it be Justin Bieber for the next month or so :drama: Needs someone like Rihanna to drop a new release.

 

An R8 single would be lucky to inpakt top50 tbh :lol:

 

BTW, yes I can see that there are a lot more songs flopping these days, and each model has its flaws, particularly in the development of new artists, but it's really up to radio to change things now because switching release strategies back is going to have no impact at all come a year from now.

 

Sure, there's a good case to be made for songs picking up more support if they go top ten, but whatever the strategy, the top ten is going to be harder than ever to crack once streams come to make up 90% of the market. And though the chart is slower, and I wish people would move on more quickly rather than listening to the same five songs over and over again for months, that's something only radio and streaming platforms themselves can change by each refreshing their respective playlists far more quickly.

Edited December 31, 201510 yr by gooddelta

I'd wager that MOS/AATW held back releases won't be able to garner enough support to debut in the top ten come a year from now, rendering the release model completely redundant. They may as well have a 45-35-24-30-35 run than a 12-28-52 run, because at the end of the day, when you're missing the top ten anyway - which they will - it will make little difference to anyone.

Well there's one easy way to find out very soon, DJ Fresh releases a new song in February which has been online since over a month ago.

 

 

I expect this to have a very short chart run and miss the top 10 to be honest (which would hopefully send the message that holding back releases for 3 MONTHS is not a good idea in 2016 (I'm not fully against holding back as I explained earlier but 3 months is ridiculous especially now)).

I think you need to look at Little Mix, they obviously have a solid fanbase and a held back record of theirs can probably go top 10 but Love me like you has shown that a more spread out release instead of everything impacting first week and then falling fast has hugely helped the single and the album.

 

Love me like you is going to be their 2nd longest running single in the top 40 tomorrow and could well become their 2nd biggest single sales wise in the long run.

 

It has sustained their album in the top 10 too.

 

In my mind there is no doubt if you put a single up for pre-order for 5 weeks you will lose sales through people downloading illegally or streaming it that would just download it if it was on sale from the get go. Also something has to be at the top of the charts, so if everything is getting OA/OS the songs that eventually rise to the top will be getting the exposure and those that don't obviously didn't connect with the public.

 

Love Me Like You has admittedly done a lot better than it looked like it was going to a few weeks in, but I don't think that it's done better than it would've done held back. It would have debuted in the top 3 and it wouldn't have fallen off the chart any quicker. The label must've felt for a long time that this single has been hard work to get going and if anything would be an example of why OAOS is more trouble than it's worth. And it still hasn't made the top 10, which looks bad regardless of how many it has sold.

Love Me Like You has admittedly done a lot better than it looked like it was going to a few weeks in, but I don't think that it's done better than it would've done held back. It would have debuted in the top 3 and it wouldn't have fallen off the chart any quicker. The label must've felt for a long time that this single has been hard work to get going and if anything would be an example of why OAOS is more trouble than it's worth. And it still hasn't made the top 10, which looks bad regardless of how many it has sold.

 

Looks bad for who? Bar a few people on here who follow the charts closely if you asked most people they would just assume Love me like you was top 10 as it has been a long running hit that they have streamed, brought or heard a lot on the radio over the last 3 months.

 

Given they have never had an album stay top 10 for more than 2 weeks before this album and now their album is a mainstay of the top 10 right now I'd say everything looks good for them and no one has been put off buying the album or single and actually the exact opposite. As I say it could easily end up being their 2nd biggest selling single and Get Weird will be their biggest selling album.

 

No one has been put off them the single or album by it not going top 10 and being OA/OS and both album and single sales speak for themselves as does their longevity.

Looks bad for who? Bar a few people on here who follow the charts closely if you asked most people they would just assume Love me like you was top 10 as it has been a long running hit that they have streamed, brought or heard a lot on the radio over the last 3 months.

 

Given they have never had an album stay top 10 for more than 2 weeks before this album and now their album is a mainstay of the top 10 right now I'd say everything looks good for them and no one has been put off buying the album or single and actually the exact opposite. As I say it could easily end up being their 2nd biggest selling single and Get Weird will be their biggest selling album.

 

No one has been put off them the single or album by it not going top 10 and being OA/OS and both album and single sales speak for themselves as does their longevity.

 

But is this because of or in spite of OAOS? Being held back didn't exactly damage Black Magic did it?

 

In any case, I don't think anyone is disputing that OAOS can work for big acts such as Little Mix. But I don't think it has actually benefited them either.

But is this because of or in spite of OAOS? Being held back didn't exactly damage Black Magic did it?

 

In any case, I don't think anyone is disputing that OAOS can work for big acts such as Little Mix. But I don't think it has actually benefited them either.

 

It has helped by keeping the album selling, if Love me like you was held back and had shorter chart run it might be out of the charts now thus not keeping the album selling and keeping Little on the radio in the public's mind. It has also become a big selling single for them with a longer chart run than even their top 10 hits and #1 single wings.

 

 

Part of the reason Love Me Like You stayed so stable was its promo. They performed it so many times and gave it a boost every time it seemed to be falling on iTunes, until commercial radio finally took notice and started playing it a lot more, which is why it's still so stable. Obviously they have the budget for that, lots of smaller artists won't have the same opportunities that Little Mix have.

i think the case of John Newman allows for a good comparison of held back vs OAOS release for a relatively-known but not super famous artist, both being pre-album singles Come and Get it went top 5, Tiring Game didn't even make the top 40... John Newman doesn't have the fan base to go top 40 on OAOS

 

personally I'd go for something in the middle, premiere the song and put it on iTunes 2 weeks after debuting on air...