June 22, 20169 yr Are Northern Ireland not voting? Wales will vote to stay for the most part I'd assume.
June 22, 20169 yr Yes they are, Colm is from the Republic though ;) I'm not sure about Wales, they leaned fairly UKIP in May. I think they'll vote leave but NI and Scotland will vote to stay. The only one I can't call is England. As Dr Blind alluded to earlier, Scotland can save a English leave vote to force all of us into staying, but it requires a 66/33 split in Scotland and no more than a 48/52 split in England. More than 52% and England is just too populous for the other three to save the United Kingdom. (Because if we vote to leave then by the time that negotiation is concluded the United Kingdom of Great Britian and Northern Ireland will have ceased to exist.)
June 22, 20169 yr The status of the island of Ireland is another issue on which the Leave side are totally incoherent. Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary who you might have thought would feel obliged to have a vague idea what she was talking about, insists that the current border arrangements could remain in place if (as she wants) the UK leaves the EU. She hasn't explained how we can be said to control our borders if people can simply travel here via Ireland.
June 22, 20169 yr The status of the island of Ireland is another issue on which the Leave side are totally incoherent. Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary who you might have thought would feel obliged to have a vague idea what she was talking about, insists that the current border arrangements could remain in place if (as she wants) the UK leaves the EU. She hasn't explained how we can be said to control our borders if people can simply travel here via Ireland. That's a huge issue here. There are all sorts of repercussion for travel and for politics here if the UK votes to leave. For the fist time ever the Norther Ireland and Rep of Ireland will have different statuses regarding EU membership so the border will become more visible. This will irk Sinn Fein. As you say, if the border stays as it is it creates a backdoor into the UK and another backdoor into the EU. Edited June 22, 20169 yr by Colm
June 23, 20169 yr Author What? Well that's where I usually hang out, and my non-PC political opinions don't get aired there, so they don't rub people up the wrong way.
June 23, 20169 yr Author I've always thought it was likely that Remain would prevail, given that most of the establishment & business community was batting for them. For me though, the economic arguments never carried much weight, it was always about the freedom to control our own destiny. I originally predicted 51-49 in favour of leave, but in the light of recent polls, it seems more likely to be 52-48 in favour of Remain. In a strange way, a loss would be less disappointing for me if the polls had never been close, as then my hopes would not have been raised. I also predict a probable chorus of triumph from the Remain camp, followed over the next few months by 'We told you so' from the Brexit camp when the EU reveals the plans it has been hiding in order to avoid influencing the referendum against them.
June 23, 20169 yr I've always thought it was likely that Remain would prevail, given that most of the establishment & business community was batting for them. For me though, the economic arguments never carried much weight, it was always about the freedom to control our own destiny. I originally predicted 51-49 in favour of leave, but in the light of recent polls, it seems more likely to be 52-48 in favour of Remain. In a strange way, a loss would be less disappointing for me if the polls had never been close, as then my hopes would not have been raised. I also predict a probable chorus of triumph from the Remain camp, followed over the next few months by 'We told you so' from the Brexit camp when the EU reveals the plans it has been hiding in order to avoid influencing the referendum against them. Swiftly followed by the UK government (and, possibly, others) saying they will veto any of the proposals they don't like.
June 23, 20169 yr I also predict a probable chorus of triumph from the Remain camp, followed over the next few months by 'We told you so' from the Brexit camp when the EU reveals the plans it has been hiding in order to avoid influencing the referendum against them. That's as much true for the remain camp as it is for the leave camp. Although I fully expect the leave camp to be A LOT louder if they win than remain being loud if they win.
June 23, 20169 yr That's as much true for the remain camp as it is for the leave camp. Although I fully expect the leave camp to be A LOT louder if they win than remain being loud if they win. The Leave camp will more likely have "WE'RE DOOMED" headlines if we stay.
June 23, 20169 yr Author The Leave camp will more likely have "WE'RE DOOMED" headlines if we stay. Now you've spoiled the surprise... :lol:
June 23, 20169 yr I hope Nigel Farage has the decency to step down as an MEP if Remain win, he has no right to be there taking his massive paycheck when he so clearly doesn't want to be there.
June 23, 20169 yr I hope Nigel Farage has the decency to step down as an MEP if Remain win, he has no right to be there taking his massive paycheck when he so clearly doesn't want to be there. His style of campaigning is also the reason lots of Leavers were put off, so if we were to stay, it'd be partially down to him.
June 23, 20169 yr 52-48 to Remain but with at least 80% turning out. The Scottish referendum had nearly 85% and the buzz to get registered in the run up to this feels the same.
June 23, 20169 yr I hope Nigel Farage has the decency to step down as an MEP if Remain win, he has no right to be there taking his massive paycheck when he so clearly doesn't want to be there. I think the only thing Nigel Farage has ever convinced me of is that he lacks even the slightest MODICUM of decency.
June 23, 20169 yr I hope Nigel Farage has the decency to step down as an MEP if Remain win, he has no right to be there taking his massive paycheck when he so clearly doesn't want to be there. He'll stay in his job until he dies/is voted out/UK pull out of EU, whichever one come first. After all, if you hate something and can't leave, the next best option is to destroy it from the inside.
June 23, 20169 yr He'll stay in his job until he dies/is voted out/UK pull out of EU, whichever one come first. After all, if you hate something and can't leave, the next best option is to destroy it from the inside. If it was as undemocratic as he claims they'd have told him to f*** off years ago
June 23, 20169 yr The latest election odds from William Hill (other bookmakers are available) - Remain - 1/8 Leave - 5/1 Looks quite decisive as things stand. Bookies tend to be well informed about these kind of things.
June 23, 20169 yr Leave 54% Remain 46% Turnout 65% (I'm actually not sure which one will win but I'm being pessimistic so if I'm wrong here, I still win since we'll remain in the EU :kink:)
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