Is that using some odd methodology too :lol:

 

 

No it shows just how popular Boris is compared to the other two

No it shows just how popular Boris is compared to the other two

 

Well it depends who was asked and the sample size :D

Why are you still posting these polls after ws've seen the ridiculous pro-Tory bias of the methodology? No thanks.

Why are you still posting these polls after ws've seen the ridiculous pro-Tory bias of the methodology? No thanks.

 

Because some of us aren't as sceptical as you as to their value. ;)

 

I'll be especially interested in the next MORI poll, as that's the one I took part in. :thinking:

Well it depends who was asked and the sample size :D

 

Presumably not MM, or Corbyn would have came out as 'popular' as Kim Jong-un claims to be in North Korea. :rolleyes:

Kantar's methodology seems a bit off IMO though. 90% turnout among over 65s!? Seriously.. ? You can manipulate the polls to say whatever you want really, though the trends are the thing that is most important and they point to a small (narrow) Conservative majority at the moment.

 

Jesus talk about cooking the data to get the answer you want. To channel Michael for a moment, there is no way that weighting gives you anything other than a Tory majority - regardless of the political climate. It feels manipulated beyond the realms of what is reasonable

 

Jesus talk about cooking the data to get the answer you want. To channel Michael for a moment, there is no way that weighting gives you anything other than a Tory majority - regardless of the political climate. It feels manipulated beyond the realms of what is reasonable

 

I did a bit of googling, but I cannot find anything which confirms those turnout weightings claimed of Kantar, and there is no source quoted in Dr Sleep's original posting of those figures... :thinking:

 

One thing I hope we all share is a distrust of unsourced figures? :unsure:

Edited November 19, 20195 yr by vidcapper

Presumably not MM, or Corbyn would have came out as 'popular' as Kim Jong-un claims to be in North Korea. :rolleyes:

 

Or according to the hard right press and BBTory and simple-minded common sense, Bojo the Bloat is as popular here as Kim is in North Korea!!

Question for Michael...

 

If you're so convinced that the polls are wrong, what % do you think Lab & Tories are really on?

 

Please try to be objective...

Edited November 20, 20195 yr by vidcapper

Question for Michael...

 

If you're so convinced that the polls are wrong, what % do you think Lab & Tories are really on?

 

Please try to be objective...

 

Weren't the polls massively wrong last year? And given the methodology we've seen surely even you as a Tory supporter must also see that they're probably wrong.

 

 

Weren't the polls massively wrong last year? And given the methodology we've seen surely even you as a Tory supporter must also see that they're probably wrong.

 

I agree that they're probably overstating the Tory lead somewhat, but whether that's due to flawed methodology or simply late swing, will be determined on Dec 12th. However, it might be dangerous for Labour to simply *assume* they are wrong again, which is certainly what MM is doing... :blink:

 

And, once again, I am not a *Tory* supporter, just an 'anyone but Corbyn' one!

Edited November 20, 20195 yr by vidcapper

I agree that they're probably overstating the Tory lead somewhat, but whether that's due to flawed methodology or simply late swing, will be determined on Dec 12th. However, it might be dangerous for Labour to simply *assume* they are wrong again, which is certainly what MM is doing... :blink:

 

And, once again, I am not a *Tory* supporter, just an 'anyone but Corbyn' one!

 

For someone who isn't a Tory supporter, you bang on about how good they are enough.

 

And that danger is the same for the Tories thinking they have it in the bad and if anything will make them more complacent.

For someone who isn't a Tory supporter, you bang on about how good they are enough.

 

And that danger is the same for the Tories thinking they have it in the bad and if anything will make them more complacent.

 

1. I don't think I do that - criticising Corbyn is not the same as praising Tories.

 

2. After last time, I am certain they won't fall into that trap again,

 

1. I don't think I do that - criticising Corbyn is not the same as praising Tories.

 

2. After last time, I am certain they won't fall into that trap again,

 

You seem blind to every fault of the Tories, Johnson and how they go about things and forever big them and their polices up, so if that isn't supporting I don't know what is

You seem blind to every fault of the Tories, Johnson and how they go about things and forever big them and their polices up, so if that isn't supporting I don't know what is

 

 

All I am saying is that on this occasion, I consider the Tories the lesser of two evils. If you choose to interpret that as support, then so be it, but I *will not* be voting for the Tories!

Not sure if people realise but the Tories are said by polling expert John Curtice to only be able to get a majority in this election if there's a 10 point difference on election day. According to him so long as there's a 10 point gap then the others don't matter. So 40-30 does it. If the Tories stay on 40 and Labour rise above 30 then no Tory majority. If Labour stay on 30 and Tories go higher than 40 then a bigger Tory majority. Also if Tories remain at 40 but Labour drop below 30. Those are his calculations anyway. I can see the polls narrowing before the final week.

Edited November 20, 20195 yr by common sense

Not sure if people realise but the Tories are said by polling expert John Curtice to only be able to get a majority in this election if there's a 10 point difference on election day. According to him so long as there's a 10 point gap then the others don't matter. So 40-30 does it. If the Tories stay on 40 and Labour rise above 30 then no Tory majority. If Labour stay on 30 and Tories go higher than 40 then a bigger Tory majority. Also if Tories remain at 40 but Labour drop below 30. Those are his calculations anyway. I can see the polls narrowing before the final week.

 

That doesn't make sense - in 2017 the Tories were only a few short of a majority on a lead of just 2.5% - just a 1% greater swing and they'd have had 19 more seats - giving a majority of 24...

AND labour were 2000 votes shy of an overall majority in 2017 too :) How on earth you can call the evil vile Tories the lesser of two evils is just BEYOND ME. They are evil, privatising the nhs, lying at every turn and Bojo thinks he was born to rule!! URGH.

AND labour were 2000 votes shy of an overall majority in 2017 too :) How on earth you can call the evil vile Tories the lesser of two evils is just BEYOND ME. They are evil, privatising the nhs, lying at every turn and Bojo thinks he was born to rule!! URGH.

 

How about we just take your opinion on the Tories as read, to save you repeatedly posting it many times a day. :rolleyes:

 

Not until you admit they are far, FAR worse than Labour and Bojo is far, FAR worse thsn the statesman Corbyn :) It's veeery telling you've never criticised the Tories under Mad May or Bojo the Clown. I have criticised Corbyn and Labour more than you have the Tories!! I criticised him over the winter election and you RAN into the thread to try and score some points on it. Have you nothing bad at all to say aboot the worst political party in the modern world after the Republicans??