But what would that election resolve? Probably we'd end up with what we've got now- and even less time to resolve Brexit.

 

A new poll from ComRes makes even more troubling viewing...

 

On "asking the EU to renegotiate the current deal if the House of Commons votes against it on 11th December":

Support: 45%

Oppose: 25%

 

~~

 

On "extending the date when the UK leaves the EU beyond 29th March 2019":

 

Support: 34%

Oppose: 46%

 

~~

 

On "the UK remaining a full member of the EU":

 

Support: 44%

Oppose: 45%

 

~~

 

On "holding a second referendum on whether to Remain or Leave":

 

Support: 40%

Oppose: 50%

 

~~

 

On "implementing in full the deal negotiated by Theresa May and agreed by the EU":

 

Support:: 26%

Oppose: 42%

 

On "having a 'no deal' or 'clean break' Brexit":

 

Support: 34%

Oppose: 41%

 

via @ComRes, 30 Nov - 02 Dec

 

And finally...

 

LAB: 39% (-1)

CON: 37% (+1)

LDEM: 9% (-)

UKIP: 6% (-1)

GRN: 3% (-)

 

 

So no majority support for the current deal, none for extending A50, massively split on whether to stay in the EU, and no majority support for a 2nd referendum, nor for having a 'no deal' Brexit.

 

In chess they'd call that zugzwang !

Most recent polls have shown a majority in favour of a referendum on the deal. I suspect the language used may make a difference. "Second referendum" makes it sound like people are being told "You got it wrong, try again" (as Mayhem may be saying to MPs next week). "A referendum on the deal" is a more accurate description of what people ar calling for.

Most recent polls have shown a majority in favour of a referendum on the deal. I suspect the language used may make a difference. "Second referendum" makes it sound like people are being told "You got it wrong, try again" (as Mayhem may be saying to MPs next week). "A referendum on the deal" is a more accurate description of what people ar calling for.

 

The name of the referendum matters little, only the wording of the question.

The name of the referendum matters little, only the wording of the question.

You’ve missed the point. The point is that it would not be a re-run of the 2016 referendum. It remains the case that polls generally show public support for a vote on the deal.

You’ve missed the point. The point is that it would not be a re-run of the 2016 referendum. It remains the case that polls generally show public support for a vote on the deal.

 

UNfortunately the HoC is far more divided...

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 39% (+1)

LAB: 39% (-)

LDEM: 6% (-2)

UKIP: 6% (-)

GRN: 4% (-)

 

via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec

Chgs. w/ 14 Dec

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 39% (+1)

LAB: 39% (-)

LDEM: 6% (-2)

UKIP: 6% (-)

GRN: 4% (-)

 

via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Dec

Chgs. w/ 14 Dec

 

It can't be that encouraging for Labour that, no matter how much the Tories f*ck-up, they can't consistently break the 40% barrier.

It's a result of the polarised nature of British politics at present - democratic socialism for labour will only attract so many voters so the others turn to the tories (people who hate corbynism and won't vote LDs due to their history this decade under clegg) so the two big parties are stuck at a plateau at present. Is it not worrying for tories that JC labour reached 15 points higher than anyone from the right believed they would pre June 2017?

 

UKIP steady on 6% after I thought they'd disappeared must be the result of the threat to Brexit at present?

It's a result of the polarised nature of British politics at present - democratic socialism for labour will only attract so many voters so the others turn to the tories (people who hate corbynism and won't vote LDs due to their history this decade under clegg) so the two big parties are stuck at a plateau at present. Is it not worrying for tories that JC labour reached 15 points higher than anyone from the right believed they would pre June 2017?

 

UKIP steady on 6% after I thought they'd disappeared must be the result of the threat to Brexit at present?

 

THIS

 

The Tories are BRICKING it as even their fake establishment polls have Labour higher than them! Dictatorships don't like that.

UKIP steady on 6% after I thought they'd disappeared must be the result of the threat to Brexit at present?

 

Whatever their poll ratings, as long as Brexit goes through they'll put up few candidates, so their supports will have to make another choice.

 

 

THIS

 

The Tories are BRICKING it as even their fake establishment polls have Labour higher than them! Dictatorships don't like that.

 

Is a GE a 'fake establishment poll' too? :thinking:

via Britain Elects:

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 40% (-1)

LAB: 34% (-5)

LDEM: 10% (+3)

GRN: 4% (-)

UKIP: 4% (+1)

 

via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan

Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

 

Brett-Butler's usual caveats about reading too much into one opinion poll applies, but if this isn't an errant poll, then the Lib Dems must be rather proud with themselves, and Labour less so. I'm also choosing to believe that a few % of the "other" not featured in this poll is going to the SDP...

Pfft. YouGov is an old people's Tory poll. I don't belive Miss 400 Seat Tory Majority YouGov for one second

 

YouGov was the poll that was closest to predicting the seat share in 2017, but whatever makes you feel good.

It said Tories would have 400 seat majorities. It loves the Tories.

YouGov was the poll that was closest to predicting the seat share in 2017, but whatever makes you feel good.

 

It even predicted a worse result for the Tories than they actually achieved...

 

It said Tories would have 400 seat majorities. It loves the Tories.

 

Not the ones close to polling date.

 

Besides, just because a poll suggests something, doesn't make it true.

 

 

 

via Britain Elects:

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 40% (-1)

LAB: 34% (-5)

LDEM: 10% (+3)

GRN: 4% (-)

UKIP: 4% (+1)

 

via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan

Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

 

Brett-Butler's usual caveats about reading too much into one opinion poll applies, but if this isn't an errant poll, then the Lib Dems must be rather proud with themselves, and Labour less so. I'm also choosing to believe that a few % of the "other" not featured in this poll is going to the SDP...

I suspect you are over-estimanting the number of people aware that the SDP is still a thing.

I suspect you are over-estimanting the number of people aware that the SDP is still a thing.

 

ARe you sure he didn't mean SNP?

 

The SDP 'died' nearly 30 years ago.

 

As for UKIP, now they seem to be flirting ever more closely with racists, I think that 4% is too high.

ARe you sure he didn't mean SNP?

 

The SDP 'died' nearly 30 years ago.

 

As for UKIP, now they seem to be flirting ever more closely with racists, I think that 4% is too high.

The SDP never fully died. It has continued since most of the membership merged with the Liberal Party. Similarly, the Liberal Party has never officially disbanded.

I suspect you are over-estimanting the number of people aware that the SDP is still a thing.

 

 

ARe you sure he didn't mean SNP?

 

I *did* mean the SDP (Social Democratic Party), albeit somewhat tongue-in-cheekly. Their membership has increased quite a bit in the past few months (albeit from a very small base), mainly from disgruntled Brexiteers of all different stripes, and they've even gained an MEP (Patrick O'Flynn defected from Ukip to them). I do think that they are going to start picking up a bit more support and press coverage over the next 12 months, albeit not to the extent that they are become a default option on opinion polls, or that they seriously challenge for any seats, either at a local or national level.

Pfft. YouGov is an old people's Tory poll. I don't belive Miss 400 Seat Tory Majority YouGov for one second

 

 

Neither do I. All I can see at the next election, whenever that may be, is another hung parliament. Labour won't get a majority until they ditch Corbyn and I'd bet my house on that.