Voting intention for both Westminster & EU polls. As it stands, Labour ahead in EU polls, with Brexit Party & Ukip eating into the Tories at the same level:

 

@1116964782005997568

Voting intention for both Westminster & EU polls. As it stands, Labour ahead in EU polls, with Brexit Party & Ukip eating into the Tories at the same level:

 

 

Very fragmented, especially for the Euro's!

Edited April 13, 20196 yr by vidcapper

Pretty bad for the Conservatives, but also bad for Labour, it's far away from the very polarised 2017 GE result. But on the other hand, it looks like trending to be more polarised on Brexit, that's a great result for the Brexit party at this early stage, less so for CUK.

 

Of course, no campaigning on EU elections yet but that may just hurt the Tories further, could they perhaps be coming to top EU Parliament 2014 as their worst ever election result?

Pretty bad for the Conservatives, but also bad for Labour, it's far away from the very polarised 2017 GE result. But on the other hand, it looks like trending to be more polarised on Brexit, that's a great result for the Brexit party at this early stage, less so for CUK.

 

Of course, no campaigning on EU elections yet but that may just hurt the Tories further, could they perhaps be coming to top EU Parliament 2014 as their worst ever election result?

 

I've a funny feeling they won't be calling a GE anytime soon... :w00t:

Yes but they WILL have to call one in 2022, and it's only going to get worse for them. Recent Onward report:

 

The tipping point age – the average age at which the probability of voting Conservative exceeds the probability of voting Labour – has risen from

47 years old in 2017 to 51 years old today. This means that in the 18 months between the 2017 election and our fieldwork, the point at which people were more likely to vote Conservative increased by 4 years.

Yes but they WILL have to call one in 2022, and it's only going to get worse for them. Recent Onward report:

 

That's assuming the upward trend will continue, of course.

That's assuming the upward trend will continue, of course.

 

Indeed.

 

I guess implementing a Brexit that the young resolutely don't want will really reverse that trend won't it ?

Indeed.

 

I guess implementing a Brexit that the young resolutely don't want will really reverse that trend won't it ?

Indeed. There was an article in the i on Friday written by someone from Conservative Home. He failed to mention that rather large elephant in the room as a potential cause of the shift.

Indeed.

 

I guess implementing a Brexit that the young resolutely don't want will really reverse that trend won't it ?

 

They were just the ones handed the poisoned chalice - if they were in power, they'd be the ones taking the hit.

They were just the ones handed the poisoned chalice - if they were in power, they'd be the ones taking the hit.

Eh? They were handed it by themselves. They called the referendum. They chose to make it advisory with, as a result, no threshold. They chose to plough on regardless of the closeness of the result. They chose to ignore all the breaches of electoral law. This is a mess entirely of their own making.

Eh? They were handed it by themselves. They called the referendum. They chose to make it advisory with, as a result, no threshold. They chose to plough on regardless of the closeness of the result. They chose to ignore all the breaches of electoral law. This is a mess entirely of their own making.

 

Excuse me? there was a GE in 2017 - if voters were that unhappy with the Tories, they should have taken the chance to remove them then.

Excuse me? there was a GE in 2017 - if voters were that unhappy with the Tories, they should have taken the chance to remove them then.

They still sought to keep hold of the poisoned chalice.

What I'm getting from that one EU election poll is that Change UK is already looking like a totally pointless failed experiment.

They still sought to keep hold of the poisoned chalice.

 

What were they *going* to say - vote Labour and let them deal with it instead? :wacko: :rolleyes:

Edited April 16, 20196 yr by vidcapper

What I'm getting from that one EU election poll is that Change UK is already looking like a totally pointless failed experiment.

 

 

Indeed, their branding & persuasion game has been woeful since their stronger TIG opening. I found this short Tweet-discussion from the weekend very interesting, explaining that whilst CHUK's branding has been completely off base, the Brexit Party have hit all the right notes:

 

@1117057339734089728

Excuse me? there was a GE in 2017 - if voters were that unhappy with the Tories, they should have taken the chance to remove them then.

 

The electorate removed their majority and gave a hung parliament. The Tories carried on as if buying some DUP votes could solve the whole issue instead of modifying their approach and sorting themselves out first. There was no unified approach to Brexit taken from the GE result, which is what the people voted for quite clearly when the Tories got a shock hammering.

What I'm getting from that one EU election poll is that Change UK is already looking like a totally pointless failed experiment.

 

Except that it gave both obstinate parties a kick in the ass forcing their leadership to realise that they risk falling apart if they both continued to pursue their own self-interested stances. Falling on your sword for the greater good can often work better than moaning from within and being ignored.

Indeed, their branding & persuasion game has been woeful since their stronger TIG opening. I found this short Tweet-discussion from the weekend very interesting, explaining that whilst CHUK's branding has been completely off base, the Brexit Party have hit all the right notes:

 

@1117057339734089728

 

The Brexit Party IS UKIP with a name-change. UKIP was all about Farage, self-evidently as it imploded as all the nutters hadnt a clue once he ran off to get rich and stick his nose in foreign right-wing affairs. Farage acolytes were always going to switch, so it's not really a new party, it's the Farage Party.

 

Change UK was a bunch of rebels just pissed off with the leadership of their parties, and in that respect they represent most of us, but it's not a new party in the sense that it has organised, financed, worked out policies and so on. It's been forced to have been created. The SDP was much easier because it was one party, by and large, pissed off with the far-left. Circumstances in 2019 are much more messed-up and complex.

Indeed, their branding & persuasion game has been woeful since their stronger TIG opening. I found this short Tweet-discussion from the weekend very interesting, explaining that whilst CHUK's branding has been completely off base, the Brexit Party have hit all the right notes:

 

@1117057339734089728

 

Very interesting and I completely agree, particularly that last bit about the colours. Colour wheel wise, going with turquoise doesn't line up with the Brexit Party's aims, but it's such a good calming colour it's a surprise no one has taken it before.

 

Imagine if Change UK had branded themselves The Remain Party. It's not the sole reason why they exist, sure, but they weren't going to cut out a unique place in British politics any other way.

Very interesting and I completely agree, particularly that last bit about the colours. Colour wheel wise, going with turquoise doesn't line up with the Brexit Party's aims, but it's such a good calming colour it's a surprise no one has taken it before.

 

Imagine if Change UK had branded themselves The Remain Party. It's not the sole reason why they exist, sure, but they weren't going to cut out a unique place in British politics any other way.

 

The problem with naming themselves the "Remain" Party is that it is far too negative - it gives the impression of a party that is merely going to uphold the status quo, which would damage its chances psychologically. They could have gone for something along the likes of the "European Party", which tells everyone what they are without as many negative connotations (except among those who don't consider themselves as having a European identity, a population that also includes many Remainers), or possibly the Cosmopolitan Party (a bit more of a long shot, but definitely stands out). Change UK is perhaps the dullest possible name they could go for, plus it gives their enemies lots of pre-built ammunition - "you want to stop us changing from being in the EU etc..."