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At this point, Perfect's weekly sales are basically fluctuating so it's about 50/50 whether they increase or decrease each week. That makes it look like there's about a 1 in 8 chance of it decreasing for any given 3 weeks in a row for it to hit ACR.

 

Once you consider (a) if it falls one week it has more chance of rising the next, and (b) it has to fall more than the market to count towards ACR, it's probably more like a 1 in 16 or even 1 in 20 chance.

:mathswoman:

At this point, Perfect's weekly sales are basically fluctuating so it's about 50/50 whether they increase or decrease each week. That makes it look like there's about a 1 in 8 chance of it decreasing for any given 3 weeks in a row for it to hit ACR.

 

Once you consider (a) if it falls one week it has more chance of rising the next, and (b) it has to fall more than the market to count towards ACR, it's probably more like a 1 in 16 or even 1 in 20 chance.

:mathswoman:

:mathswoman:

:mathswoman:

It makes sense if you see its average position as a sort of equilibrium that it fluctuates around due to intangible factors. Like, say someone had it on a playlist of theirs that they listened to on a Friday instead of a Wednesday, it's effectively transferring a stream of the song from one tracking week to the other, taking a stream from the first and adding it to the second, and giving it a net gain of +2 streams week on week compared to if they had listened to it on Wednesday instead. As it is a ''new'' (read: modern) song, I would expect that it should gradually drop over time as it reaches its capacity for exposure, but if not, then indeed a slow week could suggest it's more likely to pick up next week.

 

Alternatively, if you have a pair of dice and you roll low, there's a greater chance that your next roll will be better than that, even if not necessarily a high roll in isolation. Rolling successively lower results 3 times in a row is fairly unlikely, and that's all Perfect needs to avoid.

Falling on ACR just in time for Watermelon Sugar’s ascent up the chart; hopefully it reaches a new peak.
Am I right thinking Stupid Love can’t go back to SCR until it’s leaves the Top 100 - unless it gets a manual reset?
Am I right thinking Stupid Love can’t go back to SCR until it’s leaves the Top 100 - unless it gets a manual reset?

It needs to experience a 25% increase in streams. The 'rule' about leaving the Top 100 got scrapped (but wasn't really in place anyway as 'Swish Swish' got re-set whilst still Top 100).

It needs to experience a 25% increase in streams. The 'rule' about leaving the Top 100 got scrapped (but wasn't really in place anyway as 'Swish Swish' got re-set whilst still Top 100).

Oh thank you!

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Week ending 4th June 2020

 

1ST 6 | Song is in its first six weeks in the chart so is not affected by ACR.

6ix9ine - GOOBA

Agust D - Daechwita

Aitch - Raw

AJ Tracey feat. MoStack - Dinner Guest

Ariana Grande & Justin Bieber - Stuck With U

Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy

DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR

Daði Freyr - Think About Things

Don Toliver - After Party

Drake feat. Giveon - Chicago Freestyle

Ellie Goulding - Power

Fredo - Hickory Dickory Dock

Gunna - WUNNA

Gunna feat. Travis Scott - TOP FLOOR

Gunna feat. Young Thug - DOLLAZ ON MY HEAD

Headie One - Rose Gold

Juice WRLD - Righteous

Katy Perry - Daisies

KSI feat. Aiyana-Lee - Killa Killa

KSI feat. Offset - Cap

KSI feat. Swarmz & Tion Wayne - Houdini

Kygo & OneRepublic - Lose Somebody

Lady Gaga & Ariana Grande - Rain On Me

Live Lounge Allstars - Times Like These

Machine Gun Kelly - Bloody Valentine

Marshmello & Halsey - Be Kind

MIST feat. Fredo - House Party

Niko B - Who's That What's That

Regard & RAYE - Secrets

Sam Smith & Demi Lovato - I'm Ready

Sia - Together

StaySolidRocky - Party Girl

Surf Mesa feat. Emilee - ‎ily (i love you baby)

The 1975 - If You're Too Shy (Let Me Know)

The 1975 - Nothing Revealed / Everything Denied

The 1975 - Tonight (I Wish I Was Your Boy)

Travis Scott & Kid Cudi present THE SCOTTS - THE SCOTTS

 

SCR | Song is older than six weeks but is currently on zero weeks of decline.

220 KID & GRACEY - Don't Need Love

Ava Max - Kings & Queens

Dua Lipa - Break My Heart

Ed Sheeran - Perfect

Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar

HOSH & 1979 feat. feat. Jalja - Midnight (The Hanging Tree)

JP Saxe feat. Julia Michaels - If the World Was Ending

Little Mix - Break Up Song

Megan Thee Stallion - Savage

Natalie Taylor - Surrender

Nathan Dawe feat. Jaykae - Flowers

Robbie Doherty & Keees. - Pour the Milk

S1mba feat. DTG - Rover

Sam Fischer - This City

The Weeknd - In Your Eyes

Topic & A7S - Breaking Me

twenty one pilots - Level of Concern

Young T & Bugsey feat. Headie One - Don't Rush

 

DCL-1 | Song has declined for one week.

Doja Cat - Boss Bitch

Harry Styles - Adore You

Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN

Melanie Martinez - Play Date

PARTYNEXTDOOR & Rihanna - BELIEVE IT

Powfu feat. beabadoobee - death bed (coffee for your head)

 

DCL-2 | Song has declined for two consecutive weeks.

Doja Cat - Say So

Drake - Toosie Slide

Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do

Kygo, Zara Larsson & Tyga - Like It Is

Madison Beer - Selfish

Martin Solveig & Roy Woods - Juliet & Romeo

 

DCL-3 | Song has declined for three consecutive weeks and will be on ACR in the next chart.

Aitch & AJ Tracey feat. Tay Keith - Rain

 

ACR | Song has declined for three consecutive weeks and has its streaming values halved.

Becky Hill feat. Shift K3Y - Better Off Without You

BENEE feat. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely

Billie Eilish - bad guy

Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now

Dua Lipa - Physical

Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care

Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid - Beautiful People

Future feat. Drake - Life Is Good

George Ezra - Shotgun

Halsey - You should be sad

Harry Styles - Falling

Jax Jones & Martin Solveig present Europa with RAYE - Tequila

Joel Corry - Lonely

Justin Bieber feat. Quavo - Intentions

Khalid & Disclosure - Know Your Worth

Kygo & Whitney Houston - Higher Love

Lady Gaga - Stupid Love

Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow

Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go

Lewis Capaldi - Bruises

Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved

Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo

Mabel - Boyfriend

Maroon 5 - Memories

Post Malone - Circles

Regard - Ride It

Roddy Ricch - The Box

SAINt JHN - Roses

Stormzy feat. Ed Sheeran & Burna Boy - Own It

The Killers - Mr Brightside

The Weeknd - Blinding Lights

Tones and I - Dance Monkey

 

RESET | Song has seen an increase of over 25% in streams and will be returning to SCR next week.

N/A

Go on Little Mix :wub:

 

Thanks for the update Joseph!

Edited by Mr. C. Joel

How's Play Date on DCL-1 already as it's only its second week on the charts?
Shame Stupid Love didn't get a reset but it could mean that an album track manages to chart above it
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How's Play Date on DCL-1 already as it's only its second week on the charts?

It's older than 3 years and got a manual reset to be able to chart

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