I wouldn't say its inevitable, but it's definitely a distinct possibility that should not be ruled out. It won't happen whilst the Tories are in power though.

I don't think it's inevitable at all. Well not whilst the Tories are in power. I think all the main parties will be reluctant to have and why? Well because of all the chaos and division this one has caused. Once we're out and we're all used to not being in the EU any morte that'll be it.

 

Because people don't want us to leave the EU and it's a sure-fire way to win votes. All it takes is 15-20 years down the line, things are worse off, you'll soon get Sally from Hartlepool wanting to get back in the EU. I dare say it'll be like an episode of Benny Hill. There's a mandate there to win votes and I'm fairly positive it will crop up on manifestos in 10 years time, or like we had Eurosceptic MPs but we will have Eurounsceptics who just want us back.

I'm sure there'll be another referendum to rejoin, not while the Tories are still in power, but when it all goes to pot, they will be the ones to blame and that will hopefully be the stance that labour/any opposition party will hold against them to take over.

Yes, I am, because of every bit of demographical evidence surrounding that result. The old-young divide has over the last 4 years become the greatest indicator of political leanings in this country, greater than class, ethnic background or education and it's not good long-term news for the party on the wrong side of that divide.

 

The raw numbers of Tory voters didn't actually increase all that much. They need to find a new method of winning back the younger half of the electorate or that younger half will age into always voting and always voting against them.

 

and so we don't forget what topic we're in, the same is also broadly true of the Leave voting demographic.

 

As a counterpoint, one of the more interesting parts of that data set that came out of YouGov's post-election "How People Voted" surveys is the second Tweet below, showing that amongst 18-19 year olds, the share of the vote won by the Conservatives actually INCREASED from the last election. Granted, this was from a relatively low base, but worth noting nonetheless. Interestingly, the data suggests that the Conservatives also lost votes in the 60+ demographics from 2017.

 

@1207412749871075330

 

This is why I dislike a whiggish view of history, as well as "demographic destiny" predictions, because they usually aren't borne out by the evidence. I would be interested to know the reasons why 18-19 year olds voted in such a different way from their 20-24 year old counterparts between 2017 and 2019, who are evidenced as being less likely to vote Tory.

Let's face it EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the next decade will be due to Brexit.

Even the inevitable apocalyptic antibiotic resistance that will DOOM US ALL very soon?

Jesus please no! Those ads have been on flat out!

In all seriousness, increased antibiotic resistance and its consequences is my biggest fear for our planet over the next few decades. More than Brexit, more than climate change, more than anything else. Aside from the millions of deaths it will cause, it will also result it the reversing of every single social advancement from the 60s onwards and lead us into political instability that will be hard to recover form.

Let's face it EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the next decade will be due to Brexit.

 

 

Oh of course the Remoaners will say that when most of it has nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit.

Edited December 26, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

Oh of course the Remoaners will say that when most of it has nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit.

 

 

There are more of us than there are Brexshitters.

There are more of us than there are Brexshitters.

 

 

Well we have no proof of that as we've had no referendum since 2016. Remember opinion polls can be very wrong. Leave won in 2016 and at the moment that's all that matters.

Edited December 27, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

This is why I dislike a whiggish view of history, as well as "demographic destiny" predictions, because they usually aren't borne out by the evidence. I would be interested to know the reasons why 18-19 year olds voted in such a different way from their 20-24 year old counterparts between 2017 and 2019, who are evidenced as being less likely to vote Tory.

I mean we're talking about a difference of 3% (19% of 18-19 y/o voted Tory in 2017 -> 21.5% in 2019) amongst a tiny age group. This is not 'in such a different way', and even if it was, we're talking about a cohort so small that it barely affects anything. Remember that the UK's birthrate was at historic lows at the turn of the century and there are relatively few 18 year olds at the moment.

 

Also the difference with this group compared to all the others is that they contain a completely different cohort to in 2017, and crucially this group are all voting for the very first time so there's absolutely no precedent for them.

 

Iz, sorry but this argument is straight out of the hard-left handbook and it's a load of rubbish. Haven't we been waiting for 40-50 years for older Tory voters to die off and then voye Labour? I don't believe it happens and this whole myth that climate change will make people vote Labour/Greens is complete clutching at straws. Unfortunately as human beings the majority of us are inherently selfish, hence why people vote Tory in their older years.

 

The crucial thing about today's age divide is that it IS new. You're replying to Iz's graph which shows exactly this. People haven't been saying this for 40-50 years? Or if they have, they're wrong. In 1979, Thatcher got 42% of the 18-24 vote and 43% of the 25-34 vote, which was barely different from the 45% she got with the electorate overall.

 

I can't predict the future but the current precedent of voters in their 50s, 60s and 70s massively voting Tory isn't relevant today when in their youth, in the 1970s and 1980s, they didn't actually show particular left-wing tendencies in a world where your vote was largely determined by class and economics rather than your social values.

Edited December 26, 20195 yr by Harve

Well we have no proof of that as we've had no referendum since 2016. Remember opinion polls can be very wrong. Leave won in 2016 and at themonent that's all that matters.

 

You have 20% youth support snd your demographic trends old. You got 17% of the population to vote for brexshit. Do the maths.

Let's face it EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the next decade will be due to Brexit.

 

Or will be *blamed* on them, which is not the same thing. :mellow:

 

There are more of us than there are Brexshitters.

 

In the absence of another referendum, that is unprovable.

 

BTW, I don't use insulting terms like 'Remoaner', so why do you use 'Brexshitters'? :blink:

Or will be *blamed* on them, which is not the same thing. :mellow:

In the absence of another referendum, that is unprovable.

 

BTW, I don't use insulting terms like 'Remoaner', so why do you use 'Brexshitters'? :blink:

 

Because someone ELSE just used it.

 

Because someone ELSE just used it.

 

Seriously - *that's* your justification? :huh:

 

 

Yes. You go low, we go low. That's how a culture war is fought.

Yes. You go low, we go low. That's how a culture war is fought.

 

Ever heard of taking the high road?

Let's take that out of the gutter ('we go low, you go low' isn't supposed to be for insults) and apply it to political conduct. That's how we get things like 'we won the argument' and 'kinder, gentler politics', admirable goals and the warm glow of feeling right, but not stances the right use to because they know that ensuring they are in power, however that gets done, is far more effective.

 

They go low, we go high and they kick us where it hurts the most.

Ever heard of taking the high road?

 

Seriously, just shut up.

 

Your fellow troll actually used that word a few posts above, so I'd say he's justified here.