That leaves me with genuine concern Nigel Farage could end up being Prime Minister in 5 years time if they keep hacking away :unsure:

 

It certainly looks to be heading that way. :(

Just remember your history guys. In the history of British politics the tories have NEVER fallen below 153 seats in any General Election. It would be a historic moment for it to happen. Remember this history stretches through civil wars, absolution crisis, the Wall St crash and world wars. The chances of it actuallly happening would be totally unprecedented so il believe it when it actually happens. The tories will get 100+ seats for me which would be disasterous but recoverable!

I really wouldn't be surprised if Farage becomes the leader of the Tories at some point though.

He may if they need rescued after this!

"Anti-Brexit group Best for Britain says its analysis confirms that Labour is in a strong position to win Clacton and stop Nigel Farage becoming an MP."

 

Bur it's39% vs Labour's 27% in second!!! Hopefulky Greens and Lib Dems and centre Tories all band together.

Labour leads by 25%.

 

Tied-lowest Conservative % (worse than Truss).

 

Highest Reform %.

 

🇬🇧 Westminster VI (14/6-17/6):

 

Labour 43% (+1)

Reform UK 18% (+1)

Conservative 18% (–)

Lib Dem 12% (-1)

Green 5% (–)

SNP 3% (–)

Other 1% (–)

 

Changes +/- 12/6-13/6

 

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/lat...14-17-june-2024

 

 

Yes Labour!! :cheeseblock: At least the gap between Labour and Reform hasn't shrunk!

I hope these trends continue. Not that I like to see Reform so high, but they will completely split the conservative vote making way for Labour/Lib dem gains and destroying the conservatives. We could be looking at less than 100 seats for the conservatives which is unprecedented :cheeseblock: Single digits perhaps? :cheeseblock: Ok maybe the latter is a bit too optimistic :lol:

Edited June 17, 20241 yr by Envoirment

🚨New Voting Intention🚨

Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.

Con 19% (-2)

Lab 46% (-)

Lib Dem 10% (+1)

Reform 16% (+4)

SNP 2% (-2)

Green 5% (-)

Other 1% (-1)

Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024

Sample: 1,383 GB adults

(Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

 

https://deltapoll.co.uk/polls/voteint240617

 

 

Yeah I can’t imagine single digits. :lol: I can still see a chance of them getting triple digits tbh. :(

This one a bit of a surprise

 

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 34% (-5)

SNP: 30% (+1)

CON: 13% (+1)

LDM: 8% (=)

RFM: 7% (+3)

GRN: 6% (-1)

 

Via @YouGov, 3-7 Jun.

Changes w/ 13-17 May.

 

Nvm ignore that a week old poll these stupid twitter accounts

Edited June 18, 20241 yr by Liam sota

NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB - Poll 2/4:

 

CON 20% (-3)

LAB 41% (-)

LD 12% (+2)

REF 15% (+3)

GRE 6% (-)

SNP 2% (-1)

OTH 5% (+1)

 

F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024.

 

Survation also did a Clacton poll

 

Farage - 42%

Tories - 27%

Labour - 24%

 

Big Yougov MRP coming at 5pm and given postal voting starts tomorrow it should be a fairly significant indicator into actual results

Survation also did a Clacton poll

 

Farage - 42%

Tories - 27%

Labour - 24%

 

Big Yougov MRP coming at 5pm and given postal voting starts tomorrow it should be a fairly significant indicator into actual results

 

That poll was commissioned by a former UKIP donor (Aaron Banks - going by Twitter), so potentially may be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

As there is also this from yesterday, which suggests its closer:

 

@1803193197612470551

 

But then I guess you could argue as that's from Labour, its showing what they want as well :D

Edited June 19, 20241 yr by ElectroBoy

NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB - Poll 2/4:

 

CON 20% (-3)

LAB 41% (-)

LD 12% (+2)

REF 15% (+3)

GRE 6% (-)

SNP 2% (-1)

OTH 5% (+1)

 

F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024.

 

Survation also did a Clacton poll

 

Farage - 42%

Tories - 27%

Labour - 24%

 

Big Yougov MRP coming at 5pm and given postal voting starts tomorrow it should be a fairly significant indicator into actual results

 

Glad to see Labour stable and comfortably ahead while the Tories continue to fall. Reform though. :puke: and Clacton ewww. :puke2:

 

Can't wait for this biggie at 5pm! Praying its nothing worrying.

@1803442656955244861

Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history

 

Labour: 425 (+223)

Conservative: 108 (-257)

Lib Dem: 67 (+56)

SNP: 20 (-28)

Reform UK: 5 (+5)

Plaid: 4 (±0)

Green: 2 (+1)

 

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/4980...otal-in-history

Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history

 

Labour: 425 (+223)

Conservative: 108 (-257)

Lib Dem: 67 (+56)

SNP: 20 (-28)

Reform UK: 5 (+5)

Plaid: 4 (±0)

Green: 2 (+1)

 

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/4980...otal-in-history

 

Omg is this the most accurate poll? Cons are actually on course to be below 100. :cheeseblock: Labour and LD thriving too. :cheeseblock:

Omg is this the most accurate poll? Cons are actually on course to be below 100. :cheeseblock: Labour and LD thriving too. :cheeseblock:

 

I would say survation and yougov are the top two yeah.

 

On the link they have an interactive map and you can see the % for every seat they've done. While they're not proper 1,000 people polls its a good indication.

 

For Islington North they have it 41% Labour 36% other which is almost all Jeremy Corbyn I imagine, so that one will be close.

 

In mine which is Keir Starmer they have it 59% labour 15% independent which I assume is this guy Feinstein who has been at everybodies door non stop. They're actually really nice but I've never seen so enthusiastic in a race they can't win.

 

Various more interesting results on there.

 

Seems like 140 is now a best case scenario for the Tories and probably 95-120 is most likely with sub 90 worst case :D

Edited June 19, 20241 yr by Liam sota

^ Interesting indeed. Let's name and shame the top Reform voters:

 

Reform UK win:

 

Clacton

Great Yarmouth

Louth and Horncastle

Ashfield

Basildon and Billericay

 

 

 

Top 10 seats where Reform UK come second place:

 

Barnsley North

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley

South Holland and The Deepings

Havant

Barnsley South

Boston and Skegness

Heywood and Middleton North

Maldon

Folkestone and Hythe

Blackpool North and Fleetwood

 

I sadly live quite close to Folkestone. :(

The thing is with Reform, most people won't have read the manifesto. They'll be voting for Farage and because they want change. Usually the root cause is issues with split communities, and plaves which have had little to zero investment.

 

I honesty think Reform will win Clacton at the absolute most, and even then if Labour held up the white flag, the Tories would easily win it.