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No matter the Reform and Tory %s I’m still think we will see a fair standard ‘landslide’ in that Labour will get near 400 seats, Tories 180-190 and Reform 1 or 0 seats. These predictions of the tories on less than 150 seats don’t happen in FPTP no matter what has happened!

Polls showing the tories May win the West Midlands and teeside mayoral elections which the party would try and claim as a coup! Would it be bough to save Rishi for now though!?

Tories down to 18pc in the latest YouGov, a new record low. Reform climb to 15.

 

@1785894700496388140

 

If repeated at a GE, the Tories would retain just 32 seats with Rishi Sunak losing his seat..

 

Thoughts and prayers for Laura Kuenssberg at this difficult time x

Polls showing the tories May win the West Midlands and teeside mayoral elections which the party would try and claim as a coup! Would it be bough to save Rishi for now though!?

 

I know the West Midlands mayor has campaigned on a pro Andy Street ticket without mentioning the Tories. So a personal vote (I don't follow that area enough to know if he is actually very good but he was very vocal re the HS2 being reduced debacle). The Teeside mayor, Ben Houchen was miles ahead.

 

It depends on the other votes. Some are saying that if these two provide Sunak with enough of a consolation prize to avoid a leadership challenge and the other results are diabolical then that would be worse for the Tories. If all results including them are bad we may get Mordaunt as PM and you know that she won't do as badly as Sunak at the GE.

 

Blackpool South MP by election today too. Result should be a big Labour win. Depends by how much.

Edited May 2, 20241 yr by Smint

Tories down to 18pc in the latest YouGov, a new record low. Reform climb to 15.

 

@1785894700496388140

 

If repeated at a GE, the Tories would retain just 32 seats with Rishi Sunak losing his seat..

 

Thoughts and prayers for Laura Kuenssberg at this difficult time x

 

Crikey Sunak's going to have a hard time staying as PM if the local election results line up anything like that.

 

Going to have to suffer Kuenssberg presenting the local elections overnight. Thankfully it'll be Jo Coburn during the day tomorrow when the more significant results come in. It's times like this you really miss David Dimbleby. Shame he quit.

Who knew that continually gaslighting people and telling everyone there isn't anything wrong (when there clearly is) and that they have a plan (which they don't) could cause them to lose so much support...

 

Its good though that even if they managed to somehow claw back everyone who has gone to Reform, they'd still be trailing Labour by 11pts.

I’ve said it before but there’s no way the tories will fall to 32 seats. It would be one of the biggest moments in British political history. Reform will be on 2% and 0 seats on election night I’m sure!

What’s the lowest amount of seats the tories have held?

Tories down to 18pc in the latest YouGov, a new record low. Reform climb to 15.

 

@1785894700496388140

 

If repeated at a GE, the Tories would retain just 32 seats with Rishi Sunak losing his seat..

 

Thoughts and prayers for Laura Kuenssberg at this difficult time x

 

:lol: That Tory turd should be nowhere near the supposed impartisl national broadcaster. Her glee whwn a Tory wins, or when she was making news up about Corbyn... jesus!!

I’ve said it before but there’s no way the tories will fall to 32 seats. It would be one of the biggest moments in British political history. Reform will be on 2% and 0 seats on election night I’m sure!

 

Very much doubt they will be as low as 2%. I think they will do what UKIP did in the 2015 general election and manage ~10%+ and perhaps even 1 or 2 seats. But instead of winning votes at the expense of Lib Dems, reform will win votes at the expense of the conservatives instead.

 

What’s the lowest amount of seats the tories have held?

 

Over the last 190 years or so of the conservative party existing the lowest seats they've had are 156 in 1906 followed by 165 in 1997. Even dropping below 150 seats would be unprecedented. The fact they could even struggle to get 100 is potentially historic.

The 1906 election was the promise of the People Budget by chancellor Lloyd George to introduce old age pensions and the Tories tearing themselves apart over free trade vs protectionism.

Very much doubt they will be as low as 2%. I think they will do what UKIP did in the 2015 general election and manage ~10%+ and perhaps even 1 or 2 seats. But instead of winning votes at the expense of Lib Dems, reform will win votes at the expense of the conservatives instead.

Over the last 190 years or so of the conservative party existing the lowest seats they've had are 156 in 1906 followed by 165 in 1997. Even dropping below 150 seats would be unprecedented. The fact they could even struggle to get 100 is potentially historic.

 

Oh wow a potentially historic low then. I’m surprised it took this long for the country to see sense.

For the record I’d be surprised if they went below 150!

Oh wow a potentially historic low then. I’m surprised it took this long for the country to see sense.

 

I really can't see them going that low - polls generally narrow towards an election.

Very much doubt they will be as low as 2%. I think they will do what UKIP did in the 2015 general election and manage ~10%+ and perhaps even 1 or 2 seats.

 

I can't see Reform winning a seat off their own back - even UKIP only ever had two MPs due to defections from Tories.

 

Lee Anderson is almost certain to lose his seat (thankfully) so won't be re-elected under the Reform banner.

 

BTW Laurence Fox and Dan Wooton have both vowed to move out of London after Khan's win. Our cup really overfloweth.

They got no chance with Sunak, guy has no redeeming qualities. Until he is gone you can just dismiss them entirely

Even Sunak's Nazi style round up of asylum seekers for detention camps pre Rwanda didn't help..maybe the British public is just not as nasty as the Tories think they are.

I can't see Reform winning a seat off their own back - even UKIP only ever had two MPs due to defections from Tories.

 

Lee Anderson is almost certain to lose his seat (thankfully) so won't be re-elected under the Reform banner.

 

BTW Laurence Fox and Dan Wooton have both vowed to move out of London after Khan's win. Our cup really overfloweth.

 

Crap, to where?! Keep them in that there London!! We don't want thode two flittering about the country, like Nazi Farage!!