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OPINION POLLS 2019-2024

Doctor Blind
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Any knowledge of when the final MRP poll will come out? The one that was most accurate in 2019 I mean.
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Any knowledge of when the final MRP poll will come out? The one that was most accurate in 2019 I mean.

 

YouGov's last MRP poll came out 2 days before the election. It was the largest poll (over 100,000 people) and was fairly accurate.

 

YouGov MRP poll vs Election Results:

 

Conservatives: 43% vs 43.6%

Labour: 34% vs 32.1%

Lib Dems: 12% vs 11.6%

SNP: 3% vs 3.9%

Green: 3% vs 2.7%

Brexit: 3% vs 2%

 

Hoping they will do another large MRP poll and release the data a day or two before the election. It should be fairly represenative, although some wiggle room for parties to do a little worse/better by 1-2%.

YouGov's last MRP poll came out 2 days before the election. It was the largest poll (over 100,000 people) and was fairly accurate.

 

YouGov MRP poll vs Election Results:

 

Conservatives: 43% vs 43.6%

Labour: 34% vs 32.1%

Lib Dems: 12% vs 11.6%

SNP: 3% vs 3.9%

Green: 3% vs 2.7%

Brexit: 3% vs 2%

 

Hoping they will do another large MRP poll and release the data a day or two before the election. It should be fairly represenative, although some wiggle room for parties to do a little worse/better by 1-2%.

 

The difference between 2019 and this election is that YouGov have changed their polling methods midway through this campaign because they didn't believe what it was saying - this now means they have the Labour Party a in the mid-to-high 30s whereas every other pollster has them in the high-30s to low-40s. I think a lot of this polling is failing to account for boundary changes and failing to account for the unpopularity of this government.

 

The only poll that will count is the exit poll and shortly after the results.

The difference between 2019 and this election is that YouGov have changed their polling methods midway through this campaign because they didn't believe what it was saying - this now means they have the Labour Party a in the mid-to-high 30s whereas every other pollster has them in the high-30s to low-40s. I think a lot of this polling is failing to account for boundary changes and failing to account for the unpopularity of this government.

 

The only poll that will count is the exit poll and shortly after the results.

 

I think you're probably right! A lot of vsriarion and noise in these polls.

 

The difference between 2019 and this election is that YouGov have changed their polling methods midway through this campaign because they didn't believe what it was saying - this now means they have the Labour Party a in the mid-to-high 30s whereas every other pollster has them in the high-30s to low-40s. I think a lot of this polling is failing to account for boundary changes and failing to account for the unpopularity of this government.

 

The only poll that will count is the exit poll and shortly after the results.

 

You also have to take into account that the we have Reform now as well which will eat up some of Labour's voting. Also YouGov likely changed their methodology due to boundary changes as well. The last Yougov MRP poll had:

 

Labour at 39%

Conservatives: 22%

Reform: 15%

Lib Dems: 12%

Green: 7%

SNP: 3%

 

That still resulted with Labour on 425 seats (range of 401-445). They're likely overestimating the Greens at the expense of Labour. I think their last MRP poll will likely show something similar or perhaps a little more favourable to labour. But this election has quite a lot of seats which are going to be 3-4 way "ties" between Labour/Conservatives/Reform/Lib Dems. Hoping we'll see tactical voting between Labour/Lib Dems/Greens to try to stop conservatives and reform winning various seats.

The difference between 2019 and this election is that YouGov have changed their polling methods midway through this campaign because they didn't believe what it was saying - this now means they have the Labour Party a in the mid-to-high 30s whereas every other pollster has them in the high-30s to low-40s. I think a lot of this polling is failing to account for boundary changes and failing to account for the unpopularity of this government.

 

The only poll that will count is the exit poll and shortly after the results.

 

I’m not sure that’s accurate, their MRP is the same they changed their standard polling to their MRP methodology so technically the MRP is no different to 2019. The reason they have Labour lower in standard polling I think it’s simply majorly due the fact it doesn’t factor in potential tactical voting like the MRP does

 

Who do they ask and how? They never ask me

 

Sign up to yougov

Edited by Liam sota

YouGov's last MRP poll came out 2 days before the election. It was the largest poll (over 100,000 people) and was fairly accurate.

 

YouGov MRP poll vs Election Results:

 

Conservatives: 43% vs 43.6%

Labour: 34% vs 32.1%

Lib Dems: 12% vs 11.6%

SNP: 3% vs 3.9%

Green: 3% vs 2.7%

Brexit: 3% vs 2%

 

Hoping they will do another large MRP poll and release the data a day or two before the election. It should be fairly represenative, although some wiggle room for parties to do a little worse/better by 1-2%.

 

Ok so we should expect one Tuesday. :cheer:

Most seat predictions have the tories on 190 seats now which sounds right!
Most seat predictions have the tories on 190 seats now which sounds right!

Most? I don’t think I’ve seen any predictions showing them winning that many.

I’m doing that over playing them card to be even more jubilant on Friday morning, let me roll with it :D

Edited by Steve201

I’m doing that over playing them card to be even more jubilant on Friday morning, let me roll with it :D

 

Ahh I like your thinking! :D I still think they will do better than the polls suggest, but then also wouldn’t be surprised if this is the one time they actually do worse. :lol:

Lowest Labour total and highest Conservative total for a while. Still gives me Labour on 468-484 seats (depending on how I put in the results on Electoral Calculus, the latter number is when I commit a cardinal sin and use the regional based results with their regional calculator but as this is a mega-poll I can just about get away with it). Tories on 44-69 seats.

 

Reform get a couple of unusual seats in that configuration now, Skipton & Ripon, Barnsley South and North Cotswolds.

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