The postal vote thing in America is so strange, why is Trump so against postal votes?

 

I could be wrong but I'm sure postal votes demographically in the UK are used more by older people for example.

Because he's already spent months telling his base that mail-in voting is fraud. So Republicans who would otherwise vote by mail and might have trouble making it to polling stations risk not voting at all. NOT taking action to make it difficult to vote by mail would be suicidal because Trump through his own rhetoric has decided to make mail-in votes Dem-favoured. It's all entirely predictable.

 

 

I am plugging my own tweet here but x

Edited August 14, 20204 yr by Harve

My heart goes out to President Trump on the death of his younger brother. Condolences Sir. Very hard to lose a family member.

The latest CNN poll is not good reading for Biden fans.

 

Nationwide Biden leads Trump but only 50% to 46% with the margin of error being +-4% and in battleground states Biden has the support of 49% to Trump's 48%.

 

Lord, if that man gets another 4 years,....Not my words lol.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics...gust/index.html

Michelle Obama made a great speech at the Democratic Convention.

 

My eyes were teary as soon as she start her speech!!!

 

That needs to be added into commercial and campaign adds till Nov 3 and after!!!!

 

:clap:

 

 

If she'd stood she'd beat Trump in a huge landslide, probably biggest ever, but she said she hates politics.

Hmm, I get that the DNC is trying to do a reach across the aisle thing, and I was fine with them inviting John Kasich, he represents 'sensible conservatives' who could be swayed over by Trump, but now they've got Colin Powell in the lineup - the man who justified the Iraq War... I can't help but feel that this conservative outreach is going a little too far.

 

My agreement with the part of the American left that is supporting Biden is based on the idea that he can be moved while in office easier than Trump and it's a damn sight better than whatever fascist nonsense Trump will spew up. My problems are when the Democrats start looking so conservative that enough people decide to not vote out of sheer lack of enthusiasm to cost him a few states.

 

However despite the poll posted above, the majority of polls still have Biden at around a 10-point lead, I'm interested to see where they are after the conventions.

 

meanwhile the Republican party is having a normal one:

@1295936130198769665

 

like, this person won't win because it's a safe Democrat seat but major political parties need to have some form of oversight (not that it'd be alright if she were clever enough to be a racist piece of shit in private either but...)

A few US election facts

 

A president has won every state three times. In 1788 and 1792, George Washington won all the electoral votes running effectively unopposed, and in 1820, James Monroe, running unopposed, carried all twenty-three states in the union at that time (although one electoral vote was cast for John Quincy Adams and two electors died prior to casting votes).

 

A complete fifty-state victory has not been accomplished since the fiftieth state was admitted into the union, though there have been several landslide victories:

 

In 1936, Franklin D. Roosevelt carried forty-six of forty-eight states, losing only Maine and Vermont.

In 1972, a 49 state sweep with Richard Nixon losing only Massachusetts

In 1984 another 49 state sweep with Ronald Reagan losing only his rival's home state of Minnesota.

 

A candidate has lost the election after winning the popular vote 5 times:

 

The last was Hillary Clinton in 2016. Others were Al Gore versus George W Bush in 2000, Grover Cleveland in 1888; Samuel Tilden in 1876; and Andrew Jackson in 1824.

 

Some commentators think Trump may win again without winning the popular vote but just sneaking an Electoral College victory.

Edited August 29, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

RNC was predictable policy-lite, feelings over facts nonsense from what I've gathered - when most of the featured speakers are the President's idiot family you're not on to a good thing. Less ratings than the DNC too.

 

Models are still hovering with Biden around 85% chance, Trump around about 15%, but still well within the realms of possibility. If he's going to do it at all it will be on the Electoral College and not popular (because like hell has he expanded his base from 2016 to any significant degree!), but Biden just has to win a few of the swing states to win, Trump has to win most of them.

 

I would count swing states this election as Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. To give an indication for how much of a task Trump has, the next state on that list would be Texas, so he has to play defense even there. I mean, he can win with Biden still taking Minnesota/Michigan/Pennsylvania (and that would be a 270-268 job), but that requires all of the other tossups to go his way.

 

https://www.270towin.com/ recommended for experimenting with different scenarios x

I’d say it’s almost certain that Biden will win the popular vote, assuming they actually count all the votes.

There are many millions of shy Trump voters that some analysts think will see him back or very nearly. They daren't even tell pollsters they support him. I read a lot of US sites and in the Comments below, some even say they'd lose their job if it was found out they supported Trump. I don't foresee a Trump landslide but think he'll get back in.

 

 

 

Michael Moore posted this:

 

From The Guardian

 

 

Film-maker says enthusiasm for president in swing states is ‘off the charts’ and urges everyone to commit to getting 100 people to vote

 

Moore identified opinion polling in battleground states such as Minnesota and Michigan to make a case that the sitting president is running alongside or ahead of his rival.

 

“The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?” Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.

 

“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he later added.

 

He continued to voters: “Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!”

Edited August 30, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

Very hard to disprove a negative, but Trumpers are generally far from shy as a class, and those that could fall into that category would be undecideds and old conservative Republicans, i.e. NOT the MAGA cult.

 

And would those break again for Trump when Biden is about as good for their interests as a Democratic president is likely to get? Had a search and this seems relevant, pollsters have corrected for errors in 2016 and in theory are ready for Trump's unique appeal among the electorate: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/the...ularly-shy.html

 

Michael Moore has good instincts though, I was reading his post from 2016 on a similar issue: https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/- and of his five main points, which did prove to be true then, while point 3 no longer holds (no Hillary), and for point 1, the Rust Belt is set to back Biden (many protests have been there and Biden comes across likeable to that sort of voter, and he also helps deal with point 2), but to an extent, points 2, 4 and 5 still hold true if slightly changed by varying circumstances of the intervening 4 years. The white man will still feel threatened by progressive identity issues, though BLM more than feminism this time, the fairweather energetic Bernie bro is again not going to be motivated to get people out and vote (+ pandemic reality and mail-in situation screwing the whole ideal of voter encouragement up) and 5 will forever be a constant as long as democracy exists.

 

There's definitely something to what he's saying and Americans should not get complacent. I have seen some models hold Michigan up as an 95%+ Biden chance pickup, I hope they're not wrong.

Primary season is (I think) all but over now, and has finished on a high with long-time progressive Senator Ed Markey (Senate author of the Green New Deal) seeing off 'useless scion' Joe Kennedy III - grand-nephew of that Kennedy (real quote: 'Not a single patient should be forced to fight off medical bankruptcy in the midst of a global pandemic without a lawyer by their side' 🤡). One final victory for the progressives before hopefully the majority of those that came through the primary season (like Cori Bush), win their election to Congress/Senate.

 

Anyway, first time a Kennedy has lost a race in Massachusetts, may it be a very long time, if ever, before they win another.

Trump furiously denies ever having any mini-strokes.

 

 

President Trump blasted Matt Drudge, owner of the right-leaning Drudge Report website, on Tuesday for the site's coverage of his remarks from earlier in the day denying that a series of "mini-strokes" had sent him to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

 

In a tweet Tuesday evening, Trump accused Drudge of harboring a bias against his candidacy for president that he argued also was prevalent during the 2016 election.

 

"Drudge didn’t support me in 2016, and I hear he doesn’t support me now. Maybe that’s why he is doing poorly. His Fake News report on Mini-Strokes is incorrect. Possibly thinking about himself, or the other party’s 'candidate'," the president wrote.

My 'I never had any mini-strokes at Walter Reed Medical Center' t-shirt is raising a lot of questions already answered by my t-shirt.

"I didn't have a mini stroke, I've never had a mini stroke. If I wanted a mini stroke, yes, I probably can go out and get one, because I AM WHAT? SICKENING. You could never have a mini stroke because you are NOT THAT KIND OF GIRL."

CNN have this today:

 

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

 

0-1 points: just 6%!

1-2 points: 22%

2-3 points: 46%

3-4 points: 74%

4-5 points: 89%

5-6 points: 98%

6-7 points: 99%

One of Trump's former legal advisers has suggested that, if he has to admit defeat, Trump will resign before inauguration day. That will allow Mike Pence to take over and, in his very brief term of office, grant the orange thing a pre-emptive pardon, protecting him from being prosecuted.

One of Trump's former legal advisers has suggested that, if he has to admit defeat, Trump will resign before inauguration day. That will allow Mike Pence to take over and, in his very brief term of office, grant the orange thing a pre-emptive pardon, protecting him from being prosecuted.

 

 

Yes have read that too today. To be honest, we can never be sure what Donald may do under pressure.

 

We may not know the result for a few days. Trump may be declared the winner by the networks on the night but could end up being Biden when all postal votes are counted. Trump's then expected to go to court to somehow get them declared invalid and ramin the winner.

Yes have read that too today. To be honest, we can never be sure what Donald may do under pressure.

 

We may not know the result for a few days. Trump may be declared the winner by the networks on the night but could end up being Biden when all postal votes are counted. Trump's then expected to go to court to somehow get them declared invalid and ramin the winner.

It has been clear for some time that Trump is likely to claim victory in some states before a result can safely be declared. No doubt Fox News will assist. After all, he has been doing all he can to discredit the integrity of postal voting and trying to ensure that his supporters are more likely to vote on the day while Democrats are more likely to vote by post.