They've still got a long way to go to beat the shambles of Florida 2000.

They've released the preliminary results, based on 62% of the votes counted, which give:

 

26.9% – Buttigieg

25.1% – Sanders

18.3% – Warren

15.6% – Biden

12.6% – Klobuchar

1.1% – Yang

 

It seems odd (and some would say...suspicious) that they've released partial results; as we don't know if this 62% is a representative sample, a different set of winners could have emerged if the remaining 38% were counted. Buttigieg will be happy that he appears to be the fake frontrunner at the moment; his name will dominate all the headlines and allow him to shape the media narrative over the next few days.

Yang may drop out soon then.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if he did. I suspect Yang didn't think he'd win the candidacy anyway; likely saw it as helping to leverage name recognition for a future run for Congress or to the Senate.

So er... Buttigieg is apparently leading the delegate count in these partial results despite Bernie having (quite a few) more actual votes. Caucuses are really ridiculous and need to be scrapped.

 

Fair play to Mayor Pete though, he's done much better than expected (whether or not he ends up 'winning'), shame for him that the media attention will be more on 'the entire caucus was a shitshow' than his strong performance.

At the least this should sink Biden. Getting no or very few delegates from Iowa for a candidate who's trading on ""electability"" is really not good.

 

I do reckon that the final 38% of that result will end up with Sanders narrowly ahead, but Buttigieg is going to do well out of this.

If you want to have some political geekery fun with the results that HAVE been announced, 71% at last count, then I can recommend this page from the New York times, that shows the result of every precinct on a lovely coloured political map..

 

For the really rural precincts, you can easily imagine how the caucus in the village hall or whatever turned out. For example, there's a Klobuchar (green) precinct at the north of the state where in total 3 people turned up, one Biden, one Sanders and one Buttigieg and decided amongst themselves to award their precinct delegate to a candidate no one had as their first choice.

 

And those maps are why I think Sanders will edge ahead, there's marginally more urban districts left to announce than rural districts, and he does better there.

Trump's approval ratings are on the rise now,at 49%. Not brilliant but doing better.

 

How childish of Nancy Pelosi for tearing up Trump's State Of The Union speech whilst standing behind him. Likened to what a 5 year-old would do. All this will hopefully play in to his hands and hand him 4 more years in November.

Trump's approval ratings are on the rise now,at 49%. Not brilliant but doing better.

 

How childish of Nancy Pelosi for tearing up Trump's State Of The Union speech whilst standing behind him. Likened to what a 5 year-old would do. All this will hopefully play in to his hands and hand him 4 more years in November.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nickn...by_Donald_Trump

 

Finally starting to play his game.

Trump's approval ratings are on the rise now,at 49%. Not brilliant but doing better.

 

How childish of Nancy Pelosi for tearing up Trump's State Of The Union speech whilst standing behind him. Likened to what a 5 year-old would do. All this will hopefully play in to his hands and hand him 4 more years in November.

He remains the only president in polling history never to have had an approval rating of 50% or more.

 

Why haven't you commented on Trump's childish behaviour is refusing to shake Pelosi's hand before the speech?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nickn...by_Donald_Trump

 

Finally starting to play his game.

 

 

Why haven't you commented on Trump's childish behaviour is refusing to shake Pelosi's hand before the speech?

*crickets*

 

 

She really is the gif that keeps on giving.

@1225170253778444291

 

Christ could this get any more incompetent. Results delayed for 2 days and counting to make sure they're accurate and they still manage to put out an incorrect update?

 

As more of the results have come in it appears Pete now has the lead in the popular vote as well (for now at least), he's a few thousand behind Bernie in first preference votes but narrowly ahead after realignment (so Biden/Klobuchar voters flocked to Pete in areas where those two couldn't get to 15%, makes sense).

 

New Hampshire cannot come soon enough.

Sanders is now 2,000 ahead on the popular vote statistics I'm seeing even after final alignment, and 5,000 ahead on first alignment should that mean anything... yet he has 19 less state delegate equivalents than Buttigieg, democracy.

 

Still the same number of national delegates at least but this shit will probably end up with Buttigieg edging ahead on that as well.

 

550-547 on the 'media focus but eventually means nothing' state delegate equivalent metric that is the ONLY one that Buttigieg is still ahead of Sanders on with 97% reporting!!!

 

@1225296610386743296

I mean honestly, if this shit had happened in a Latin American or African country there'd be op-eds filling American newspapers on how this undermines democracy and we need to intervene to sort it out.

 

They literally staged a coup for this in Bolivia last year. Hypocrites.

I mean honestly, if this shit had happened in a Latin American or African country there'd be op-eds filling American newspapers on how this undermines democracy and we need to intervene to sort it out.

 

They literally staged a coup for this in Bolivia last year. Hypocrites.

It’s still a relatively minor muddle when compared with Florida 2000.

Sanders is now 2,000 ahead on the popular vote statistics I'm seeing even after final alignment, and 5,000 ahead on first alignment should that mean anything... yet he has 19 less state delegate equivalents than Buttigieg, democracy.

 

Still the same number of national delegates at least but this shit will probably end up with Buttigieg edging ahead on that as well.

 

Yeah Bernie pulled back out into the lead on the next update after I posted that. Back to 'this system is stupid and needs to be abolished'.

 

I didn't know before now that the Iowa caucuses used this arcane electoral college style system - this year is actually the first time they've ever even announced the popular vote. Given that Buttigieg seems to be getting a significant advantage in 'state delegate equivalents' from rural counties, and looking back at 2016 when Hillary won by a fraction of a percentage point in SDEs, probably fair to say that Bernie probably got more actual votes last time as well?

 

(and lol if it now turns out Bernie actually could have won on SDEs as well! I'm sure there'll be blanket media coverage of his clear win if that turns out to be the case xx)

 

Small side note: the app involved in this mess is literally called Shadow. Are they trying to make this look like a conspiracy or.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/06/butti...-iowa-caucuses/

 

The Iowa result seems to have boosted both Bernie and Pete, at the expense of Biden and (despite actually doing quite well in Iowa) Warren. Bernie up 3 points and Biden down 5 over the course of just two days giving Bernie the lead in this particular poll for the first time (although still statistically tied with Biden).

 

Also a fun observation, FiveThirtyEight's model for the primaries currently has Bernie favoured to win every single state. Now wouldn't that be fun. Although that has come with a footnote that the model is based on the assumption that the winner of Iowa would get a big boost from media attention but that is likely to be less impactful this year since the media focus was mostly on the caucuses as a whole being a giant mess, and also more focused on the success of Pete than Bernie, so the model is almost certainly overestimating him.

The DNC have stole Bernie's victory speech. He has declared victory now, but the national DNC want a review into these awful results. Anyone see the UTTERLY FAKE coin tosses too?! No wonder Bernie has never won a single one. Wow!