There are rumours of a big announcement by Kamala Harris tomorrow, probably an endorsement of Biden and putting herself in position to be his VP choice.

 

Biden himself has effectively confirmed it anyway when he said something about how he'd like his VP to be a "woman or a person of colour".

Edited February 10, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

http://i.imgur.com/LCzbO77.png

 

Biden doing... not so great. x

 

The latest national poll has Bernie 8 points ahead with a huge drop for Biden (though in this one it's Bloomberg picking up the most and nearly overtaking Biden, though Bernie and Pete both made solid gains too), again the first time Bernie has been in the lead with that particular pollster.

Biden is currently 5th in New Hampshire with ~10% reporting...! Is he this election's Jeb?

 

Bernie with a fairly solid lead so far, Pete Buttigieg battling against Amy Klobuchar (!) for 2nd. #klomentum?

 

edit: also apparently Andrew Yang has now dropped out.

Biden is currently 5th in New Hampshire with ~10% reporting...! Is he this election's Jeb?

 

Bernie with a fairly solid lead so far, Pete Buttigieg battling against Amy Klobuchar (!) for 2nd. #klomentum?

 

edit: also apparently Andrew Yang has now dropped out.

 

Clinton lost his first 10 states and then won with S Carolina and the south. That's why the DNC moved S Car up - to give Joe a bigger boost. They knew that was his model.

 

Yang dropped out. 1-5% boost for Bernie, probably more 2%-ish as a lot ONLY support Yang.

 

Klobuchar is now polling better than Warre. Warren might bow out soon. Centrist vote from here on out will be split between FIVE candidates. Earren's voters will split between Klobuchar and Bernie.

 

time to start klobbering!!!

 

Good stuff for Bernie so far and sad to see the back of Yang but hopefully he or his ideas can get another shot in the future.

 

this is apparently where the candidates are leading according to the New Hampshire exit poll:

 

klobuchar and buttigieg have double teamed Biden and obliterated him on the few issues that Sanders doesn't satisfy people on.

And Michael Bennet has now also dropped out.

 

*tumbleweed*

literally hu?

 

he was doing a lot of campaigning in NH so less votes than Deval Patrick on current numbers is not a good look

Pete closed the gap a bit (in percentage terms at least, I think he's been around 3-5k behind in raw votes the entire time) but NH has been called for Bernie now. Not as comfortable a win as he'd have wanted but a win is a win.

Iowa's result: Pete 26.2%, 14 delegates, Bernie 26.1%, 12 delegates.

 

New Hampshire's result: Bernie 26.0%, 9 delegates, Pete 24.4%, 9 delegates

 

I know the delegate numbers from this thing don't matter in the long run but that feels wrong. Would have been better for Bernie to win a bit stronger but this is very good for him nevertheless. Nevada still looks good for him.

How ridiculous. Getting 1.6% more votes yet the same number of delegates exactly. :rolleyes:

Reuters reporting this morning that Bietenieg in second and Kloubuchar in 3rd and yet no word of the winner 🤔

 

The establishment will reign in behind those two clearly!

From BBC News:

 

 

Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary contest, on a terrible night for former vice-president Joe Biden.

 

The left-wing senator took a tight victory over centrist former mayor Pete Buttigieg, who offered a different Democratic vision in the race to take on President Trump in November.

 

Mr Sanders declared the night "the beginning of the end" of Mr Trump.

 

Success in New Hampshire - like Iowa - offers momentum for the race ahead.

 

Finishing behind Vermont senator Mr Sanders were two moderates - Mr Buttigieg and Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, who emerged as a surprise contender by taking third place.

 

Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and Mr Biden - two erstwhile frontrunners - finished in fourth and fifth places.

 

Technology entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Colorado senator Michael Bennet both dropped out of the race.

I am slightly disappointed by Bernie’s NH performance, I’d have like him to take the lead in totoal number of delegates over Pete but I’d imagine that will happen in a week or two anyway

I am slightly disappointed by Bernie’s NH performance, I’d have like him to take the lead in totoal number of delegates over Pete but I’d imagine that will happen in a week or two anyway

 

It's okay. A lot of Republicans probably voted in it, and for all their bluster in lublic, in private they are verybworrief about Bernie. The Republican primary numbers were VERY low, and the state is a swing state. There was a massive uptick in moderate and conservative voters in the primary this year. It makes sense they were Republican/ rep lean.

 

Also, the whole Iowa fiasco happened specifically to deny Bernie his momentum. Instead, it wwnt to Pete.

 

Interesting that Warren (and Bernie to a lesser extent, by about 2%) underperformed, whilst Amy and Pete dramatically overperformed. Note, that the opinion polls asked registered DEMOCRATS, not Republicans, which brings me back to point A.

 

If it stays this close throughout, ans I think it will, with Bwrnie winning and a different no.2 in each state, Biden here, Bloomberg, Pete, Amy therr, wuth Warren staying in as a spoiler, then the moderatrs will band together and take the nomination at a split convention. They'll say they got more votes combined. And Trump will win.

 

Good news for Nevada:Bernie is going in with massive Latino support. Pete polls between 0 -9% with non-white voters, and Amy doesn't do much better. Bernie has momentum, Biden's electability argument (never won a single dem primary or caucus yet) not doing so well, meaning Biden support should splinter. Bernie is the most popular 2nd choice option among Biden voters. However, Pete or Amy will benefit too, so at least one of them will get 15%, I think.

 

Also, Yang has suspended his campaign, and his followers overlap with Bernie's. An endorsement would be nice here!

 

Progressives (including Steyer) got 44 5% from a quick glance. But that eas in an open primary where Republicans and lean Repubs also voted. The democratic base is moving left, so being more moderate than in 2016 is unlikely ... unless they voted Bernie so as not to vote for Hillary. She had bad favourability.

 

 

I am slightly disappointed by Bernie’s NH performance, I’d have like him to take the lead in totoal number of delegates over Pete but I’d imagine that will happen in a week or two anyway

 

 

That should happen next I'd think.

Some UK bettings sites like Betfred and Coral now have Bloomberg just as likely to win the Presidency as Bernie! I mean they all had Clinton winning the election so it's not reliable but it is interesting that so many people are willing to put their money behind Bloomberg this early on

Interesting article from Five Thirty-Eight:

 

 

The Democratic primary is in a confusing state at the moment. And our forecast model is a little confused, also. There are a couple of assumptions it’s making about how the polls may react to New Hampshire that may not be entirely right. The model is also limited by the lack of polling in states after New Hampshire, most notably Nevada and South Carolina. So we’d encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in.

 

But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:

 

Model takeaway No. 1: Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.

 

Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing.

 

I’m going to be relatively brief here as I’m writing this at 2 a.m. in the morning. But let’s take the Sanders conclusion first. The model’s contention that he’s the closest thing to a frontrunner in this race seems inescapable to me. Sanders won the popular vote in each of the first two states (and he may eventually win the state delegate equivalent vote in Iowa). He leads in national polls (having recently overtaken Joe Biden). He’s raised a ton of money. He polls fairly well in Nevada (or at least he did back when people bothered to poll it). And he has a reasonably diverse coalition that should net him at least some delegates in almost every state and congressional district.

 

There are also some negatives for Sanders. While he won New Hampshire — although pledged delegates were split evenly between Sanders and Buttigieg, which the model gives Buttigieg a tiny bit of credit for1 — his 25.7 percent of the vote there underperformed our projections by 2 to 3 percentage points. New Hampshire is a state that by all rights ought to have been fairly strong for him (as Iowa should also have been). And although Sanders leads in national polls, he averages only 22 percent of the vote in them, unusually low for the national leader at this stage of the race. Between the slight underperformance in New Hampshire and a couple of mediocre polls coming in for Sanders while our model was frozen awaiting New Hampshire results, he actually fell slightly in the forecast from where he had been 24 hours earlier.

 

Still, Sanders’s 38 percent chance of a pledged delegate majority is far better than any other Democrat. He also has a 52 percent chance of a pledged delegate plurality. Even if this isn’t the strongest possible version of Sanders, he’s come far closer to actualizing his potential than anyone else in the field. Furthermore, the tactical considerations of the race are setting up well for Sanders: The moderate “lane” still very crowded and perhaps even getting more crowded (no longer just Biden and Buttigieg but also Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg!), and Sanders has pulled well ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the progressive lane.

 

But New Hampshire is also good news if you’re rooting for chaos. Our forecast has the chance of no pledged delegate majority up to 33 percent, its highest figure yet, and roughly double what it was before Iowa.

 

Almost everything went well from the standpoint of a contested convention. Sanders won, but with a smaller share of the vote than the model expected. Moreover, the second and third place candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, may or may not be poised to take advantage of any post-New Hampshire surge they get, having begun the evening at just 10 percent and 4 percent respectively in national polls, and not having any obvious strength in Nevada or South Carolina. Meanwhile, the two candidates apart from Sanders who had seemed to have built the broadest national coalitions, Warren and Biden, did terribly in New Hampshire. (Although the race is so wide-open that they can’t entirely be counted out either — especially not Biden — at least not until we see some Nevada and South Carolina polling.) Meanwhile, Bloomberg continues to rise in polls, including having his first polling lead of the campaign in any state in an Arkansas poll that came in while the model was frozen.

Edited February 12, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Also, the whole Iowa fiasco happened specifically to deny Bernie his momentum. Instead, it wwnt to Pete.

Please.

 

Iowa was a shitshow, but if it denied somebody momentum, then it wasn't denied to the candidate whose win had been anticipated for weeks prior to the caucus. It was denied to the candidate who was expected to finish 3rd or even 4th but instead came very close to winning, and that candidate was Pete.

Please.

 

Iowa was a shitshow, but if it denied somebody momentum, then it wasn't denied to the candidate whose win had been anticipated for weeks prior to the caucus. It was denied to the candidate who was expected to finish 3rd or even 4th but instead came very close to winning, and that candidate was Pete.

 

Explain them releasing partial data beneficial to Pete and refusing to even OPEN vote boxes from Bernie areas, PLUS Pete's rigged coin flips, Bernie not winning a single coin flip EVER in caucuses, and we have it on video lol, PLUS irregularities benefitting Pete, and there you have it. Momentum went to Pete. It's just what rhe Dems wanted. Sorry.

I can't believe this and surely he wouldn't agree. They're desperate to stop Sanders it seems.

 

 

WASHINGTON—As the beginning of primary season upped the stakes in their search for an alternative candidate, Democratic National Committee officials reportedly mulled Monday asking Donald Trump to run for president as a Democrat in an effort to stop Bernie Sanders. “He’s obviously not our first choice, but Trump has a track record of winning elections, not to mention he does well with the conservative voters we’ll need to swing some red states blue—if that’s who we need to ask to ensure Bernie doesn’t win, we’ll do it,” said DNC chairman Tom Perez...................