September 3, 20213 yr Author Nothing very exciting this week. In Cheshire, a Wilmslow Residents candidate won easily, despite a hefty fall in their vote. The Tories, Lib Dems and Greens all gained. There was no Labour candidate. There were two contests in Calderdale, West Yorkshire. One of them them was in a ward that has generally been solidly Tory but where there was one Independent who won comfortably in 2019. The net effect was that his vote went more or elss equally to the Tories and Labour, so the Tories won. Labour held the other Calderdale contest very easily with 83% of the vote.
October 8, 20213 yr There will be a by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup following the death of Conservative MP and former NI Secretary James Brokenshire from lung cancer. He had a thumping majority so likely to be a Tory hold, but the last few by-elections have been quite unpredictable.
October 8, 20213 yr Author There will be a by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup following the death of Conservative MP and former NI Secretary James Brokenshire from lung cancer. He had a thumping majority so likely to be a Tory hold, but the last few by-elections have been quite unpredictable. Ted Heath gained Bexley by 133 votes in 1950. The seat (with a few boundary changes) has been Tory ever since.
October 8, 20213 yr There will be a by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup following the death of Conservative MP and former NI Secretary James Brokenshire from lung cancer. He had a thumping majority so likely to be a Tory hold, but the last few by-elections have been quite unpredictable. Will be a good barometer though, suspect it will be a Tory hold still with such a large majority but the effects of Brexit could show here in terms of the size of the majority.
October 8, 20213 yr Aye, for example, it hasn't had a strong Lib Dem presence in the past but you can imagine that they'll want to try for an outer London middle class seat to build off Chesham and Amersham. Estimated a decently strong Brexit seat though, it'll be quite a long shot for anyone but the Tories, I feel predictability will return for this one.
October 8, 20213 yr I'm hoping for a Lib Dem upset - the Chesham and Amersham swing was huuuuge. The only thing is that the Tories will be fighting harder for this as it wouldn't be such a surprise and they are Uturning on the housing policy which affected C&A. But with the country going to hell on a handcart with rising covid cases, supply issues, fuel crisis, cost of living the voters are going to respond in some way.
October 8, 20213 yr Author The Lib Dems were some way behind Labour in 2019 and have come third (or worse) from 1992 onwards. It also voted 61% Leave.
October 8, 20213 yr Said I'm hoping than expecting - by elections can be very unpredictable. Certainly interesting to see who the main opposition is out of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens and how much the Tories fall.
October 14, 20213 yr Author The Tory Police and Crime Commissioner for North Yorkshire has resigned following his comments on the Sarah Everard murder. The law says that a byelection must be held within 35 days which may mean it happens at the beginning of December.
October 14, 20213 yr There's the likelihood on a by-election in Leicester East after MP Claudia Webbe (formerly Labour, now independent) was found guilty of threatening and harassing a woman. If she loses her appeal and is sentenced to more than a year, then she's automatically disbarred from being an MP. If it's less than a year (which is more likely), then there'll be a recall petition, which will trigger a by-election if 10% of the constituency sign the recall petition. Presuming that she doesn't resign of course. Labour won this seat with 50.8% of the vote in 2019, albeit with a reduced share from 2017, and their majority is only 6k. Interestingly, this isn't the first time the MP for this constituency could lose their seat in ignominious circumstances. Webbe's predecessor was one Keith Vaz.
October 14, 20213 yr If she loses appeal I think it's a given she'll be recalled. If they get a better candidate they can win still a la Batley.
October 17, 20213 yr Author As expected, Labour and the Lib Dems will not be contesting the Southend West byelection after the murder of David Amess.
November 9, 20213 yr Author The North Shropshire byelection has been called for 16 December. The Tories clearly don't want either Labour or the Lib Dems building up the momentum required to have a chance of winning.
November 9, 20213 yr The North Shropshire byelection has been called for 16 December. The Tories clearly don't want either Labour or the Lib Dems building up the momentum required to have a chance of winning. I mean at the current time, the tories are building up momentum for the other parties themselves. :lol: Don't expect an upset though, but a much reduced margin would be a good sign.
November 9, 20213 yr Author The Old Bexley and Sidcup byelection is on 2 December, two weeks before N Shropshire. Labour will be looking for a strong performance to give them a boost for N Shropshire. If Labour perform poorly, the Lib Dems will aim to present themselves as the main challenger in N Shropshire.
November 10, 20213 yr The anti-sleaze candidate should it happen might be a shoe-in for Paterson's seat.
November 20, 20213 yr Author The Lib Dems clearly think they have a good chance of doing well in North Shropshire. All their effort seems to be concentrated on this seat with Old Bexley & Sidcup being ignored. The gamble is that a poor showing in OB&S (which is highly likely) will not damage the chances of a good performance in Paterson's old seat. Even if the Tories still win them both, a decent showing by their main opponent will be encouraging for those of us who want to see the back of them asap.
November 26, 20213 yr The candidates for the North Shropshire by-election on December 16th following the resignation of Owen Patterson have been announced - Independent - Suzie Akers-Smith UKIP - Andrea Allen Rejoin EU - Boris Been Bunged Reclaim - Martin Daubney Party Party - Russell Dean Heritage - James Elliot Monster Raving Loony - Alan "Howling Laud" Hope Freedom Alliance - Earl Jesse No description - Yolande Kenward Green - Duncan Kerr Liberal Democrats - Helen Morgan Conservative - Neil Hurst-Shastri Reform UK - Kirsty Walmsley Labour - Ben Wood A bumper 14 candidates at this by-election; I'm not sure why but it seems that in this parliament there's been a lot more candidates/parties willing to put themselves forward for by-elections than usual. Rejoin EU continue their quixotic quest, this time selecting a Boris Johnson impersonator as their vandidate. Martin Daubney is a former Brexit Party MEP, he's now standing for Laurence Fox's Reclaim Party for reasons known only to himself. Continuity Brexit Party is also standing, and Freedom Alliance, a party I thought would peter out once lockdown stopped is running again; presumably news of vaccine passports has spurred them on. The Tories won this seat with over 50% of the vote in 2019, but given the circumstances of Patterson's resignation, one of the other parties might think they've got a shot. Labour were 2nd in 2019 with 22% and Lib Dems 3rd on 10%
November 26, 20213 yr Reform UK is Farage's new outfit too. The right wing members of Shropshire North have plenty of choice which is good for progressives.
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