December 8, 20213 yr The Lib Dems are now narrow favourites to win N Shropshire next week. It's been a conservative seat for almost 200 years. Lib Dems winning it would send quite the message. Fingers crossed their lead continues to grow with the current ongoing mess for the government. Another 8 days to go!
December 8, 20213 yr A 10% swing from Tory to Labour is the biggest swing towards Labour in a by election since they were in government (the other bigger swings in he last ten years have been Tory to Lib Dem or in a couple of cases Tory to UKIP) and this is a safe Tory seat and it shows the polls are correct for now and they are recovering from 2019 so what exactly do you want? :huh: Deny all the problems Labour are actually trying to fix now and just let the racists back in? Do you think they should have tried to score points at the height of the crisis and vote against restrictions so more people can die just inflict a defeat on the government? (because apparently 'opposition' is just opposing for the sake of it and shouting at people according to some) This is a long game and Labour are slowly fixing the problems they have and only then can really add any meat to the bones of what they've presented so far in terms of what they'd do and then announce more in terms of policy closer to an actual election. People are only starting to listen to them again now after they've shown they will actually respect voters (and news isn't dominated by covid) so what is your big quick fix? Who is the so called charismatic person who will magically turn things around in an instant you have in mind? Starmer hasn't been perfect but at least he's serious about tackling the problems with Labour and making them a party of government again rather than a protest group full of people who only want to use the Labour brand for their own personal agendas. Going from 26 points behind to being neck and neck at this stage is certainly an achievement and the gloves are off now so unless you live in a twitter bubble I don't see why anyone say he's the problem right now especially as his ratings have recovered to the point that he's actually way ahead of both Miliband and Corbyn at this stage but there is still a lot of work to do and they've been all over the corruption scandals right now so I don't see what the magic solution is here. Racists?? :unsure:
December 10, 20213 yr Author The Tories were defending six seats last night in council byelections. I have seen the results from three of them and the Tories lost them all, two to Labour (including one in true-blue Bracknell) and one to the Lib Dems.
December 10, 20213 yr Author The other by-elections were in Tonbridge & Malling in Kent. Three Tory defences and one Independent. The Tories gained the Ind seat. The Lib Dems might well have won it without the intervention of a Green candidate. Of the other three, the Tories held one and lost one to each of the Lib Dems and Greens. I don’t think the Tories have had as bad a night as that all year.
December 16, 20213 yr Well, if anything, North Shropshire is showing just how futile a "progressive alliance" would be. Labour and Lib Dem activists tearing shreds out of each other over Twitter - though numbers and media talk do seem to favour Lib Dem as the "correct" choice. I predict the Tory squeaking home within 3,000.
December 16, 20213 yr Having not really paid any attention, how come the alternative has changed from 2019? Whenever I see anything it is as you suggest, people saying to vote Lib Dem as the only chance to stop and others saying but Labour are the choice as they were a comfortable second last time. Is it just somewhere that normal tory voters will only move away if unsatisfied to a party that isn't Labour or is there something specific that's cause the swing?
December 16, 20213 yr Can see you the Tories holding this by virtue of a split Lib Drm / Labour alliance. The comment on futility of a progressive alliance is wrong, the idea is it let's parties agree where to stand down to avoid this situation wherethry both think they have claim as best alternative
December 16, 20213 yr Having not really paid any attention, how come the alternative has changed from 2019? Whenever I see anything it is as you suggest, people saying to vote Lib Dem as the only chance to stop and others saying but Labour are the choice as they were a comfortable second last time. Is it just somewhere that normal tory voters will only move away if unsatisfied to a party that isn't Labour or is there something specific that's cause the swing? Lib Dems have a party machine focused towards winning by-elections especially in constituencies like these, at the least they can ship everyone in their party who matters in. It's mostly a very rural place so I'd guess the thinking is that outside of those who voted Labour last time, there's very few remaining voters who'd consider voting Labour, but a fair few Tory voters who might be persuaded to vote Lib Dem or stay home. Though straight conversion numbers don't seem to indicate so much Tory -> Lib Dem, maybe about 8% at most, so I think if there is a Lib Dem victory, it'll be because Labour voters from 2019 also go over to Lib Dem and there's very low turnout.
December 16, 20213 yr Can see you the Tories holding this by virtue of a split Lib Drm / Labour alliance. The comment on futility of a progressive alliance is wrong, the idea is it let's parties agree where to stand down to avoid this situation wherethry both think they have claim as best alternative But they won't. Ever. Both are committed to being national parties and they have very different things they're trying to offer the electorate - and they won't stand down due to denying voters that distinction. At the moment they're attacking completely different parts of the Tory base, Labour going for those who like the new big state left-wing Tory economic philosophy and Lib Dems targeting those who like the supposed Tory commitment to freedom and lower taxes. Non-aggression might work and potentially COULD on a general election scale, whereby as a general rule Labour stand paper candidates in the country and Lib Dems stand paper candidates in cities and then focus campaigning money on their strong areas. But particularly for by-elections and in seats like these where there's a debate about the closest non-Tory, it's not going to hold.
December 16, 20213 yr Author It really is infuriating that Labour seem to have stepped up their campaign (on social media at least) in the last few days. It is obvious from the bookies' odds that the Lib Dems are the only challengers to the Tories, but it seems that some Labour supporters would prefer a Tory win to a Lib Dem win. To be fair, I have also seen Labour supporters despairing at what they are doing and urging people to vote Lib Dem. As well as Labour's sudden interest in the seat, the Lib Dems also have to contend with the fact that broadcasters have given the Tories two party political broadcasts this week and Labour one. The other parties haven't been granted any.
December 16, 20213 yr It is infuriating and will mean the Tories will continue to be in power ad infinitum causing great misery and despair for the most unfortunate in society. And our oppositions will have done nothing to stop it.
December 16, 20213 yr Based off Old Bexley 2 weeks ago, about 3 hours from now, though local factors may vary.
December 16, 20213 yr Based off Old Bexley 2 weeks ago, about 3 hours from now, though local factors may vary. Judging by the lack of overnight live feeds it looks like the press are expecting a morning announcement.
December 17, 20213 yr Anyone know what time the by-election result is supposed to be announced? The media were briefed '0200-0500' and it'll probably be around 0300. It would be a massive shock if the Tories lost the seat (average age is 50.8, leave vote was 60%- it's gammon central guys), most pundits saying it'll be within 2% though.
December 17, 20213 yr It's a protest vote. Nothing more. A lib Dem special that will go back to Tories next election.
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