Turnout shocking for a competitive by-election (unlike Southend W say)

 

Birmingham Erdington parliamentary by-election, turnout:

 

27.0% (-26.3)

17,016 votes cast

Birmingham Erdington, by-election result:

 

LAB: 55.5% (+5.2)

CON: 36.3% (-3.8)

TUSC: 2.1% (+2.1)

REFUK: 1.7% (-2.4)

GRN: 1.4% (-0.4)

LDEM: 1.0% (-2.7)

 

Slight swing to Labour. Would it have been bigger without the Labour candidate controversy? Maybe a little but not by much.

Almost certain to be a by-election in Wakefield following this shocking news -

 

@1513535404707926016

 

Polling suggests that Labour have a very strong chance of taking this seat.

It had been a Labour seat for decades before 2019 although often with a fairly small majority.

Imran Ahmad Khan's selection for the last election was very late. The previous Tory candidate, who had stood in the previous two elections, stood down after Islamophobic and misogynist tweets were uncovered.

Almost certain to be a by-election in Wakefield following this shocking news -

 

@1513535404707926016

 

Polling suggests that Labour have a very strong chance of taking this seat.

One reason for it being such a shock is that there have been no reports from the trial. Someone seems to have succeeded in making sure it was kept quiet until the verdict meant that was no longer possible.

And isn't there likely to be a juicy one in Somerton and Frome with David Warburton's cocaine and sexual abuse scandal? Easy Lib Dem win there.

Don't rule out Reigate too.

 

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/11/tory-mp-blas...d-boy-16447741/

Almost certain to be a by-election in Wakefield following this shocking news -

 

@1513535404707926016

 

Polling suggests that Labour have a very strong chance of taking this seat.

He's resigned, so the byelection is on.

Hopefully Labour will win the by-election with a decent sized vote swing.

He's resigned, so the byelection is on.

It seems he hasn't actually gone ahead with his resignation yet. Another broken Tory promise.

Another one bites the dust. Neil Parish has resigned as MP for Tiverton after it was revealed he was the MP caught watching porn in the Commons chamber. Before he was outed as the offender, he actually went on Gammon News to discuss the matter.

 

Logically, Labour will concentrate on Wakefield and ignore Tiverton with the Lib Dems reciprocating. Labour came second in Tiverton last time but have never been anywhere near winning. The Lib Dems came close in 1997.

The Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton byelections will be on 23 June. It seems pretty certain the Labour and Lib Dems will each concentrate on just one of them.

I'm going to predict it now - Lib Dems win Honiton and Tiverton. Conservatives hold Wakefield

And looks like there may be yet ANOTHER one coming very soon.... :o

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/ma...commons-reports

Edited May 17, 20223 yr by Smint

The candidates for the Wakefield by-election on the 23rd June, held following Imran Khan's conviction for sexual assault, have been announced -

 

Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative)

Akef Akbar (Ind)

Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance)

Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance)

Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony)

Jayda Fransen (Ind)

Jordan Gaskell (UKIP)

David Herdson (Yorkshire Party)

Therese Hirst (English Democrats)

Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party)

Simon Lightwood (Labour)

Jamie Needle (Lib Dem)

Ashley Routh (Green)

Ashlea Simon (Britain First)

Chris Walsh (Reform UK)

 

Labour lost this seat in 2019, so would be hoping to win this back given the circumstances of the election, mixed with the Tories' growing unpopularity. The Northern Independence party stands its first candidate in a Westminster by-election (it didn't feature on the ballot paper for the Hartlepool by-election owing to an admin error, so its candidate was listed as an independent). The far-right Britain First are standing, alongside one of its former leaders. Freedom Alliance still seem to be running candidates, long after their main raison d'etre has been declared moot.

 

I'm predicting a Labour victory, albeit not as strong a victory as you'd expect given the circumstances.

The candidates for the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on 23rd of June have also been announced, held due to Conservative MP Neil Parish loving tractors a little to much:

 

Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party)

Andy Foan (Reform UK)

Richard Foord (Lib Dem)

Helen Hurford (Conservative)

Liz Pole (Labour)

Frankie Rufolo (For Britain)

Ben Walker (UKIP)

Gill Westcott (Green)

 

A smaller candidate list here, although the far-right anti-Muslim, anti-Catholic For Britain are running a candiate here. The Tories won by 60% here in 2019, even with a concerted campaign by the Lib Dems I still predict they'll hold it.

What’s the Heritage Party?

What’s the Heritage Party?

 

Socially conservative spin-off from UKIP. They stood a candidate in the NI Assembly election last month and got less than 200 votes.

Wakefield by-election will be the biggie - even if Labour lose it, you would hope it would be a bit more of a closely run contest and give hope for 2024.