Until recently, I thought Starmer was unelectable but this week the party have been fighting back and show some grit. Not sure if Labour will win outright at the next election but I expect they will make ground and the Tories will lose most if not all of their majority. Remember, the last election was very different to normal as essentially it was about Brexit and now we’ve moved on from that, voting will differ next time.

Honestly, Labour are never going to stop the Tories if people bang on about bloody Starmer. Labour were never going to win this seat. I think people mis the point deliberately. No matter what Labour's vote share was in 2019, this is never a seat Labour are going to be able to win. But Labour voters can switch to Lib Dems and hope enough Tory voters follow as well.

 

I think the by-election showed that people are starting to get fed up of the Tories. Question now probably is whether they have another election win in them after they kick Boris out before it. But it does seem like people are starting to wake up a little bit.

Back in the 1980s, the BBC would have a programme covering parliamentary byelections. They would involve a lot of discussion while waiting for the result, often going on for hours, with some analysis after the result was declared. One of the great things about those programmes was that the politicians would often say things they wouldn't usually say, The assumption seemed to be that the sort of person watching into the small hours would see through the bullshit so they might as well be more honest.

 

The programmes would often end with a projection of the House of Commons if the swing in the byelection happened across the country. We all knew it was just for a laugh, but it was often a source of great amusement. In that spirit, I have done a couple projections on electoralcalculus.co.uk. The first was based on a straight 34% swing from Tory to Lib Dem with no change in the Labour vote. That gave a Lib Dem majority roughly equal to the Tories' current majority. The second was based on the actual changes in the vote share in N Shropshire. That gave a Lib Dem majority of about 400 :lol: In both case, the Tories were left with no seats at all.

Those by elections normally still happen. Curious the Boris Broadcasting Corporation didn't do one last night.

Honestly, Labour are never going to stop the Tories if people bang on about bloody Starmer. Labour were never going to win this seat. I think people mis the point deliberately. No matter what Labour's vote share was in 2019, this is never a seat Labour are going to be able to win. But Labour voters can switch to Lib Dems and hope enough Tory voters follow as well.

 

I think the by-election showed that people are starting to get fed up of the Tories. Question now probably is whether they have another election win in them after they kick Boris out before it. But it does seem like people are starting to wake up a little bit.

 

Agreed. As much as I despise Johnson it does seem the right wing media and other Tories are throwing him under the bus. But it is Tory ideology which causes most of the woes in this country. I so hope Johnson doesn’t go quietly. Out of Truss and Sunak I would actually prefer Truss to get it as I believe Starmer has a better chance of beating her as she would rub so many up the wrong way and be the subject of many viral videos. Sunak is professional, sensible and comes across well but his policies are basically to protect the rich at all costs, strip the assets from the state to their friends and bash the EU. Yes it would be a big achievement for the U.K. to get a BAME prime minister (and that will be mentioned in the media like 63563689 times) but he would not be good for the country going forwards.

Well said Smint!

The Southend West by-election will take place on 3 February following the murder of David Amess. As the other major parties have stood down out of the respect, the Tories will be up against candidates from UKIP, Constitution Party and an ex-Britain First member. Should be a formality that the Tories win this seat.

 

There will also now be a by-election in Birmingham Erdington following the sudden death of Labour MP Jack Dromey, the husband of former deputy leader Harriet Harman. Labour won this seat with just over 50% of the vote, with the Conservatives second with a majority of 3,600 votes. Birmingham is strongly Labour, only 2 of the 10 seats in the city aren't held by them (Northfield & Sutton Coalfield, both Tories), although this particular seat voted over 60%+ for Brexit, so if that dividing line still exists, it could be an upset. But for now I'd predict a strong Labour hold.

One interesting thing about the seat is that all three main parties have fielded the same candidate in each election since 2010. There can't be many seats where that is the case.

The net gains/losses in local authority byelections since last May are...

 

Con -12

Lab -5

LibD +12

Grn +13

UKIP -1

Ind +1

Oth/Ind -8

 

That includes two byelections held this year so far, a Lib Dem gain from Labour on 6 Jan (unsurprisingly, the turnout was pitiful) and a Green gain from the Tories on the 13th. The figures are for principal local authorities only, i.e. they do not include Parish / Town councils or the two Lib Dem gains in parliamentary byelections.

The Southend West by-election will take place on 3 February following the murder of David Amess. As the other major parties have stood down out of the respect, the Tories will be up against candidates from UKIP, Constitution Party and an ex-Britain First member. Should be a formality that the Tories win this seat.

 

With everything else going on in politics at the moment, as well as the fact that most other major parties have sat this one out, it's easy to forget that this is happening today. Almost definitely a Tory win, in spite of everything going on.

Southend West: CON HOLD

 

Conservative: 12,792 (86.1%)

Psychedelic Movement: 512 (3.4%)

UKIP: 400 (2.7%)

English Democrats: 320 (2.2%)

Others: 834

 

Turnout: 24.0% (down 43.4%)

 

Turnout rock bottom as expected, this was literally the worst voting ballot ever if you're left of Rees-Mogg. Even the psychedelic guy was pretty sus. I'm a 'vote at every opportunity' person but this would have really tested me. For understandable reasons though.

Yes, I would have been somewhat conflicted too. Before the last six weeks or so, I might have held my nose and voted for the Tory (although I would probably have bottled out in the end). By now, there is no way I could have done that but I would still have felt obliged to turn up. I would probably have joined the more than 1,000 others who spoilt their ballot paper (in my case, probably by leaving it blank).

A winning candidate with a sense of decency in last night's circumstances might have thanked Labour, Lib Dems and Greens for standing aside in Southend West. The winning Tory candidate, desperate to feel at home among a bunch of lying charlatans asap, claimed that her majority shows that people like the Tory government.

What the ACTUAL? When her opponents were basically a collection of facists... And anyway, it's completely untrue. She could have said that a year ago but the times have changed!

A winning candidate with a sense of decency in last night's circumstances might have thanked Labour, Lib Dems and Greens for standing aside in Southend West. The winning Tory candidate, desperate to feel at home among a bunch of lying charlatans asap, claimed that her majority shows that people like the Tory government.

 

:angry:

Spoiled ballots came in second, no mainstream party stood and she bested a couple of Nazis. Calm down hun

The candidates for the Birmingham Erdington by-election following the death of Jack Dromey, to be held on 3rd March, are -

• Robert Alden – Conservative Party
• David Bishop - Militant Bus-Pass Elvis Party
• Jack Brookes – Reform Party.
• Lee Dargue - Liberal Democrats
• Paulette Hamilton – Labour Party
• Siobhan Harper-Nunes – Green Party
• Clifton Holmes - Independent
• Michael Lutwyche – Independent
• Mel Mbondiah - Christian Peoples Alliance
• Dave Nellist – Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC)
• Thomas O'Rourke - Independent
• The Good Knight Sir NosDa - Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Dave Nellist was a Labour MP from 83-92 before being thrown out for his links to Militant; TUSC were largely dormant whilst Labour were under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, this is the first time they've run in a House of Commons election since 2015. The Militant Bus-Pass Elvis Party are perennial election losers, having first run in 2001 and barely got more than a handful of votes each times he runs.

 

This will likely be an open-and-shut Labour win, although will be interesting to see if the Tory vote collapses here (they won 40% of the vote in 2019).

 

I predict a comfortable Labour win but the Tory vote will be depressingly high.

By-election tonight in Brimingham Erdington and the Labour candidate, Paulette Hamilton, appears to have made some controversial comments a few years back and the right wing press and Tory MPs are asking for her to be deslected. I personally think it's an overblown way to smear her, the comments were a bit silly but an apology should suffice from her.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labou...ocid=uxbndlbing

 

This may eat into her vote slightly. I expect a win for Labour but not a big one and certainly nothing to worry the Tories. I live in hope to be proved wrong though!

 

 

The Tories' odds have been shortening during the day, albeit Labour are still the overwhelming favourites. Labour will still win, but it could end up being a more marginal win than I originally thought. Interestingly, the current odds seem to be hinting that TUSC could finish third and hold on to their deposit, which if true could have eaten in to Labour's win.