In addition to the above by Silas, which all appears to be the case, it seems that Prighozin is more interested in removing Shoigu and Garasimov than he is Putin, or at least he's stopped short of naming Putin in his reasoning for this.

I don't know what to think.

 

My instinct is to say this is a psyop, designed to get Ukrsine to make a mistake, or to hsve an excuse for a nuclesr "accident" at thr plsnt in Ukraine...

 

HOWEVER, with the reports thst Putin fled Moscow, recorded a video from his private jet - due to the engine whine in the backround - and that there id a huge uptick in private jets leaving Moscow with destinations in Turkey, or undefined, plus soldiers mining the main rosd into Moscow and building trenches...

 

I just don't trust Russian propaganda at all though.

Well the Ukrainian forces won't be rushing into the breach, they'll need to make their own assessments of how much, if any of the front lines have changed and that'll take time. But I do expect them to step up counteroffensives soon.

 

The recordings from Rostov are pretty clear and the reports of Wagner forces of some number between Moscow and Rostov are somewhat verified and fire does seem to be being exchanged.

 

and IF Putin has fled after his speech this morning then that is very funny

That speech was reportedly done on his jet, due to the enginr whine in the background. The PM has also evacuated.

Welp that's Russia in turmoil then :kink:

 

But given Wagner's involvement in the entirety of the invasion, I don't see the situation in Ukraine will improve much soon, even if Putin is toppled?

It depends. If Russia collapses, then Nato can step in and sort out the invaders in Ukraine. Not sure if they would retake Crimea though. Brsides, Wagner would need to consolidate power, and the front lines would be a mess. He'd have no choice but to declare peace.

This is all very reminiscent of 1991….

The thing to consider is that Rostov was the HQ of the war operations for Russia and the start point of a significant portion of their logistics. Interrupted logistics take time to filter through to the front lines. The Ukrainians have also been attacking these supply lines. (Russian logistics are like 95% rail. Take out the train line and the Russian military just stops functioning. See the 40km column to Kyiv)

 

Very nervy game of timing now for the Ukrainians. Hit at the right moment and the occupiers will disintegrate

Maybe the pause had something to do with this... I thought it was just due to Russia being too strong defensively (which it was). Maybe the Ukrainians had intrrcepted comms suggesting an upcoming coup attempt.

Ukraine right now needs to get its reconnaisance right. See where the gaps have been left by Wagner's redeployment (believed to be near Bakhmut) and see if any Russian troops are being forced in to relocating in response. If Ukraine can redeploy themselves to those areas quickly enough they could feasibly breakout in force.

 

 

 

The biggest question is around what the Moscow defences will do. Fight Wagner or step aside?

The biggest question is around what the Moscow defences will do. Fight Wagner or step aside?

 

So far it looks a lot more like the latter. They're getting only token resistance which is insane to think about unless you consider that much of the Russian MoD control over the country was very weak.

 

Prigozhin has to have realised that doing this will weaken the front lines in Ukraine - even though he would be in favour of continuing the war, from past statements at least.

So far it looks a lot more like the latter. They're getting only token resistance which is insane to think about unless you consider that much of the Russian MoD control over the country was very weak.

 

Progozhin has to have realised that doing this will weaken the front lines in Ukraine - even though he would be in favour of continuing the war, from past statements at least.

It does look that way but there are units that are very loyal to Putin and with no free media there they won't know the full story of events. We still have no true picture of how many Wagner troops are in this convoy either. There's supposedly up to 50,000 in total but they're holding Rostov-on-Don so can't have mobilised them all. But apparently they're only 200k away from the capital so should be there tonight

 

Whoever wins out in this (and I still think Putin might) it leaves a dangerous situation. Prigozhin is a violent war criminal and Putin will be drastically weakened. Who knows what vile characters are waiting to swoop in. It's like Game of Thrones but with nukes instead of dragons

Edited June 24, 20232 yr by Severin

Theres reports of the Russian military leaving the front line to go back to Russia to defend Russia from the Russians. Perhaps the wildest sentence I’ve ever typed.

 

 

Ukraine liberated a town in the Donetsk region they lost in 2014 (!!!) and are allegedly on the move in Bakhmut

Ukraine is on the move in various places, starting a new, full-on countrroffensive, according to reports!

NOW Wagner is sayinf the rebellion is over and he we will return to Ukraine... Psyops.

This coup/civil war reminds me of the 'Novaya Russia' campaign in a computer game I used to play called Empire Earth.

 

Of course its serious and very worrying.

 

 

Don't worry. It's already over. For now. He couldn't even do a revolution right.

Looks the Prigozhin will take up permanent residence in Belarus and his mercenaries will be excused of their crime of treason, with some being absorbed in to the army.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he got Trotskyed off at some point.

 

 

However you look at it though there's seemingly no upside for Putin. He's been made to look weak and his aura of supreme control is gone, his defensive lines have been compromised and he has a problem of trust in the Wagner PMC who have by far been his best fighting unit of the war. On top of this his regular army will have suffered a huge morale blow, the public will further question what's really going on and any political rivals will feel his vulnerabilities have been exposed and can be exploited. This should have a knock on and further damage his re-election campaign next year. It also gives Ukraine and the West a stronger bargaining position to push for an end to the war.

 

It'll be interesting to see how he tries to spin this one.

Looks like Wagner backed down and took up exile in Belarus?

Why do I have an inkling this is a bait?