It's very complicated I agree, and part of Putin wanting to control an old-USSR. I am not sure there will be a war, but I'm also not sure what level of sanctions the EU and US will impose on Russia. They of course know the hand is weakened through countries relying on them for gas. Obviously I can't speak for any Russian nationals, but I'd likely suspect this will increase civil unrest in Russia rather than dispel it although maybe more Russians are fascinated by the idea of rebuilding the old Soviet Union than those who are not.

 

There’s a fascination amongst the west to believe that Putin is like Hitler trying to create a new USSR but that’s propaganda, is it not the same with the US? They insist on having war bases all across the world and try to enforce economic authority through American organisations like the world bank etc, it’s all one and the same modern day colonialism.

It's very complicated I agree, and part of Putin wanting to control an old-USSR. I am not sure there will be a war, but I'm also not sure what level of sanctions the EU and US will impose on Russia. They of course know the hand is weakened through countries relying on them for gas. Obviously I can't speak for any Russian nationals, but I'd likely suspect this will increase civil unrest in Russia rather than dispel it although maybe more Russians are fascinated by the idea of rebuilding the old Soviet Union than those who are not.

 

A lot of it has to do with NATO. Ukraine can't join if there's an active conflict going on per their rules.

Part of me thinks that these talks are Theatre for the home audience he knows will never succeed so why shouldn’t NATO demand to return of Königsberg. It’s never gonna happen, like NATO withdrawing from Eastern Europe. But if putin wants to play silly c**t and try to destabilise NATO, Ukraine and the EU then you gotta fight fire with fire. Leak a map of the proposed post-war division of Moscow, plans for the Kremlin to become a museum on the dangers of Russian imperial aggression, the division of the Russian Federation into occupation zones but also to smaller independent states, returning territories „acquired“ from other states after WW2.

 

It’s time to start playing his game and calling his bluff.

 

I'd love for this to happen and for it to go that way but brinkmanship and bullishness is risky, as is him passing it off to his population as Western antagonism. Already we've got people who should know better running defense for him because there are ethnic Russians in Ukraine or some bullshit like that. Putin will just have more justification to feel threatened then.

 

If Western countries can fully start cutting off Russian oligarchs, freezing accounts and investments the more aggressive Putin gets, he might back down, but that'd be something that'd get pushback over here too as they do own a lot. But those are the people he'd listen to, as they're the ones keeping him in power.

 

There’s a fascination amongst the west to believe that Putin is like Hitler trying to create a new USSR but that’s propaganda, is it not the same with the US? They insist on having war bases all across the world and try to enforce economic authority through American organisations like the world bank etc, it’s all one and the same modern day colonialism.

 

Huge bloody difference between American bases (which also should be pulled back especially in places like Okinawa and Germany - and even then there's an argument that having them there protects against predatory expansion from Russia and China) and seeking to change the government of an independent state* or even annex them through violence.

 

*and yes of course in cases where the US does this through CIA-backed coups it's also shite, authoritarian interference is bad no matter who it's coming from.

For me there isn’t a huge lot of difference!

If Western countries can fully start cutting off Russian oligarchs, freezing accounts and investments the more aggressive Putin gets, he might back down, but that'd be something that'd get pushback over here too as they do own a lot. But those are the people he'd listen to, as they're the ones keeping him in power.

 

This! 100% - this would absolutely be the most likely threat to get Putin to back down. Money talks, but Londongrad is doing great from all the money laundering so this threat won't be used, and oligarchs will continue to use and abuse the UK’s libel laws.

For me there isn’t a huge lot of difference!

 

'Should the US and NATO expand alliances and their sphere of influence' and 'Does Russia have cause for invading Ukraine' are really not equivalent questions.

 

All superpowers do what the US does, China invests in Africa and South East Asia, Russia with states in its orbit. The US has military bases that are staging grounds almost all within and with the permission of its allies - I'm not going to argue they aren't bad, in some cases like Okinawa and Pacific Islanders, they certainly are, and they do serve to keep the USA's neoliberal internationalism alive, but the problem is what would replace that if it were taken away, and it honestly would be worse. Forget internationalism and state cooperation, the other superpowers are already straining to gain influence and real imperialism over what countries they can, if they didn't have a barrier to doing it... well, Putin would have a Russia-friendly government in Ukraine yesterday, for starters.

I look at the bigger picture in all this and the outcome of the Cold War created a singular world power that dominated and has ate into the Eastern European countries independence swaying them towards US influence ever since and making the Russians seem surrounded it’s inevitable Russia would react.

 

 

Haha, think tank close to Biden administration suggests that the U.K. government is so compromised by Russian money, the US may have to intervene.

 

Liz Truss has said that Britain is sending supplies to its "Baltic allies across the Black Sea". Her grasp of geography is clearly on a par with Dominic Raab's. Still, it's not as if she's anything important such as Foreign Secretary. Oh.

Im sure Georgia is grateful but I’m not sure how Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are feeling

As we've been discussing here for some time, the way to prevent an escalation in Ukraine is to go after the money-

 

That will never happen sadly because the government in the UK is so heavily compromised - but remember if things do escalate and if tragically lives are lost - that our government could have done something about it but chose not to.

 

@1489532519389220865

Absolutely right. The Tories mumble about unexplained wealth orders but in reality they’re toothless and they aren’t given out anywhere near enough. But they won’t go further because their parties funding source would start to run dry pretty quickly.

 

 

 

Latest point of confrontation with the west is Germany va Russia over journalists vs state propaganda. The German authorities told Russia Today, a propaganda network that pretends to be news, that they can’t broadcast with their Serbian license in Germany because they have a studio and full set up here in Germany and so would come under German broadcasting laws and they need a German license to operate (and thus be subject to the conditions that come with that which won’t work with RTs propaganda mission statement). So in retaliation at Germany enforcing their laws within their borders (noting that RT „journalists“ are permitted to work in and report from Germany, they just need to get a proper license to broadcast) the Russian gov revoked all licenses and journalists credentials for DW, threw them on the Foreign Agent list, and basically banned them from operating in the country completely. (DW, or Deutsche Welle - German Wave, is the international public service arms length broadcaster of Germany, basically the bbc world service but with more long words)

 

 

Let’s just say the German gov are furious

Furious enough to support the rest of anti Russian Europe or are they still worried about their gas supply?

Thats a real interesting way to phrase that. Of course a country whose energy sector is heavily reliant on gas is concerned about their gas supply.

 

Let’s see. Hold back, be in the position to play mediator and not get actively involved in a conflict and rising tensions because memories run DEEEEEEEEEEEP of what happened the last time Germany Bit off More than it could chew with Russia. Or poke the bear and risk total economic collapse of Europes largest economy because Putin shuts off the gas and Germany literally runs out of power

 

Don’t be a facetious dick

There’s no need for name calling because I call out the German government for sitting in silence while all this happens. I know your a brand new German now but doesn’t mean they can’t be criticised for their actions!

Edited February 4, 20223 yr by Steve201

Please can I remind everyone of the rules- heated debate is fine but name-calling is not really on!

 

I didn't realise that about the German public service broadcaster - it follows a similar pattern with other western journalists and is deeply worrying.

 

Regarding Nord Stream 2, I think the west was very naive to allow Putin to have even greater control over the European energy market, effectively providing a geopolitical lever from which he'll be able to exert a huge amount of power from.

The source for this story is the Russian foreign minister, so we should accept the possibility that it isn't true.

 

Allegedly, the foreign minister asked Liz Truss whether the UK recognised Russian sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh. Truss replied that the UK would never recognise them as Russian. The UK ambassador had to have a quiet word in her ear to point out that they are Russian regions. Indeed, their status as Russian is about as controversial as the status of Surrey as part of the UK.

I believe it because I wouldn't have fallen for it (eu4 player btw) and on evidence she would have. Even if the Foreign Secretary isn't familiar with EVERY region of a country they go to they should at least know the names of all the contentious regions that Russia is involved in - Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Chechnya, Abkhazia, Ossetia, there we go, easy - and recognise that those aren't among them (additionally, they ARE where Russia is maneuvering its troops which is perhaps the reason the ambassador asked Truss assuming he was acting in good faith and not going for a gotcha). It'd be real nice if one of these days we had a Foreign Secretary who isn't a total moron, geopolitics is so important.

 

She has no natural charisma either, how is she being talked about as a frontrunner?

 

~

 

Despite reports of Biden telling all Americans to leave and BBC seeming to warn that an attack could come at any moment, I am less confident that Russia will do it now, there's too much for them to lose now Ukraine has been clearly armed and supported by the West. At most I can see a strongarm over Donetsk and Luhansk once talks to ease tensions start.

The source for this story is the Russian foreign minister, so we should accept the possibility that it isn't true.

 

Allegedly, the foreign minister asked Liz Truss whether the UK recognised Russian sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh. Truss replied that the UK would never recognise them as Russian. The UK ambassador had to have a quiet word in her ear to point out that they are Russian regions. Indeed, their status as Russian is about as controversial as the status of Surrey as part of the UK.

 

Liz Truss probably doesn’t know where they are and came up with a made up answer….

Liz Truss probably doesn’t know where they are and came up with a made up answer….

That's the point. I wouldn't expect her to be able to list every Russian region. However, she will have been briefed on areas of tension, meaning she should have known the two regions in question were not on that list. The civil servants who prepare briefs for this bunch of numpties must be wondering why they bother.