fyi - Ghostbusters would actually have re-entered the top 40. SYL would indeed have dropped out too.

Thanks! Was very hard to estimate 30-50 this week obviously. It seems the paid for sales which don't get halved on ACR are even lower than I thought.

Update for week ending 19 November:

 

1 1 Positions (1)

2 2 Mood (1)

3 4 Head & Heart (1)

4 3 Lemonade (3)

5 16 Sweet melody (5)

6 5 See nobody (5)

7 9 Midnight Sky (7)

8 6 You broke me first (6)

9 7 What you know bout love (7)

10 10 Really love (5)

11 11 WAP (1)

12 8 Ain’t it different (3)

13 13 Holy (11)

14 17 Levitating (14)

15 14 Looking for me (5)

16 15 Diamonds (15)

17 19 Lasting lover (14)

18 18 Tick tock (13)

19 21 Blinding lights (1)

20 22 Savage love (1)

21 23 Giants (19)

22 24 Take you dancing (9)

23 28 Lonely (23)

24 12 34 + 35 (12)

25 40 Train wreck (25)

26 25 Lighter (3)

27 26 Mood swings (6)

28 27 Watermelon sugar (6)

29 45 Wonder (29)

30 29 Dynamite (3)

31 43 Someone you loved (1)

32 38 Dreams (22)

33 33 For the night (17)

34 - All I want for Christmas is you (1)

35 31 POV (31)

36 42 Dance monkey (1)

37 - Holiday (23)

38 - Confetti (38)

39 - Paradise (39)

40 37 UFO (14)

41 39 Laugh now cry later (5)

42 - Daisy (40)

43 - Put your records on (41)

44 46 Rockstar (1)

45 - I miss u (45)

46 - Breaking me (4)

47 - Come over (41)

48 - Before you go (1)

49 - Princess cuts (14)

50 41 Chingy (28)

Edited November 21, 20204 yr by JulianT

I read in the sales thread that Mariah would be #22 without ACR?

 

I read in the sales thread that Mariah would be #22 without ACR?

She would’ve been 22 if only she was on SCR but if everything is on SCR she’ll be lower

As James Masterton said, Mood would otherwise be on 47,420, so that's the lowest '#1 without ACR' sale since video streams were added and the ratios last changed in mid-2018.

That mini-record has fallen again this week, as 'positions' did just 44,348. Unless the BBC song gets a big boost, it looks like next week's #1 (regardless of ACR) could be on even less.

That mini-record has fallen again this week, as 'positions' did just 44,348. Unless the BBC song gets a big boost, it looks like next week's #1 (regardless of ACR) could be on even less.

Yes, and I feel like this could be a long term trend rather than just a phase; we could be regularly seeing 40k odd #1s next year.

 

I guess people aren't hearing current songs in shops as much and so on, but also the streaming demographic has probably become more varied. I bet Spotfiy's overall listenership is up this year but the figures in its chart are well down.

Update for week ending 26 November:

 

Mariah already scarily high and with sales so low at the top it seems highly likely that she will reach Number 1 again on this level playing field chart, however unfavourably the dates have fallen.

 

1 1 Positions (1)

2 - Therefore I am (2)

3 2 Mood (1)

4 3 Head & Heart (1)

5 5 Sweet melody (5)

6 4 Lemonade (3)

7 6 See nobody (5)

8 8 You broke me first (6)

9 - Stop crying your heart out (9)

10 7 Midnight Sky (7)

11 9 What you know bout love (7)

12 14 Levitating (12)

13 10 Really love (5)

14 13 Holy (11)

15 34 All I want for Christmas is you (1)

16 11 WAP (1)

17 16 Diamonds (15)

18 15 Looking for me (5)

19 12 Ain’t it different (3)

20 17 Lasting lover (14)

21 19 Blinding lights (1)

22 25 Train wreck (22)

23 - Last Christmas (2)

24 24 34 + 35 (12)

25 18 Tick tock (13)

26 20 Savage love (1)

27 35 POV (27)

28 22 Take you dancing (9)

29 39 Paradise (29)

30 28 Watermelon sugar (6)

31 26 Lighter (3)

32 29 Wonder (29)

33 21 Giants (19)

34 30 Dynamite (3)

35 27 Mood swings (6)

36 23 Lonely (23)

37 31 Someone you loved (1)

38 - Whoopty (38)

39 36 Dance monkey (1)

40 - Fairytale of New York (2)

41 32 Dreams (22)

42 33 For the night (17)

43 45 I miss u (43)

44 44 Rockstar (1)

45 41 Laugh now cry later (5)

46 43 Put your records on (41)

47 40 UFO (14)

48 42 Daisy (40)

49 48 Before you go (1)

50 - Santa tell me (9)

 

Update for week ending 3 December:

 

ACR has saved the official chart from being ridiculously Christmassy in November. Without ACR none of the three official Top 10

new entries would have come even close, and other non Christmas songs would be way down the list. For example I don’t think Golden, the official #27, would even be Top 50.

 

I believe it would be a record for the lowest sales at both numbers 1 and 2 (Ariana with 42.9k and Mariah with 36.4k) since video streaming was introduced. The market is still perfectly healthy but with a much flatter distribution - Lewis is on about 14k so the #1 is only 3x the #50.

 

1 1 Positions (1)

2 15 All I want for Christmas is you (1)

3 3 Mood (1)

4 2 Therefore I am (2)

5 5 Sweet melody (5)

6 4 Head & Heart (1)

7 23 Last Christmas (2)

8 6 Lemonade (3)

9 7 See nobody (5)

10 12 Levitating (10)

11 8 You broke me first (6)

12 40 Fairytale of New York (2)

13 10 Midnight sky (7)

14 11 What you know bout love (7)

15 - Prisoner (15)

16 - Monster (16)

17 - Life goes on (17)

18 13 Really love (5)

19 38 Whoopty (19)

20 - Merry Christmas everyone (1)

21 50 Santa tell me (9）

22 - It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas (5)

23 21 Blinding lights (1)

24 - Do they know it’s Christmas (1)

25 24 34 + 35 (12)

26 14 Holy (11)

27 34 Dynamite (3)

28 16 WAP (1)

29 18 Looking for me (5)

30 - Underneath the tree (13)

31 22 Train wreck (22)

32 17 Diamonds (15)

33 - Step into Christmas (6)

34 20 Lasting lover (14)

35 29 Paradise (29)

36 19 Ain’t it different (3)

37 - Rockin’ around the Christmas tree (9)

38 - Driving home for Christmas (9)

39 25 Tick tock (13)

40 27 POV (27)

41 28 Take you dancing (9)

42 - I wish it could be Christmas everyday (4)

43 26 Savage love (1)

44 36 Lonely (23)

45 30 Watermelon sugar (6)

46 - Get out my head (46)

47 35 Mood swings (6)

48 32 Wonder (29)

49 - Merry Xmas everybody (1)

50 37 Someone you loved (1)

Seeing Mariah posting incredibly high Spotify streams already this week, but still falling just short of double those of 'positions', makes me realise just how brutal ACR can be, and how hard it is to get to #1 on ACR in an increasingly stream-heavy age. When Despacito and 3 Lions did so, their pure sales were much higher and these weren't affected:

 

Despacito's 1st week at #1 on ACR (2017)

52,387 (21,309 SES, 31,078 pure sales)

17% ahead of Wild Thoughts at #2 (44,810)

if on SCR, would be 73,696 (64% ahead)

 

Despacito's 2nd week at #1 on ACR (2017)

40,891 (18,759 SES, 22,132 pure sales)

5.9% ahead of Wild Thoughts at #2 (38,601)

if on SCR, would be 59,650 (55% ahead)

 

3 Lions' week at #1 on ACR (2018)

79,779 (36,410 SES, 43,369 pure sales)

4.6% ahead of Shotgun at #2 (76,253)

if on SCR, would be 116,189 (52% ahead)

 

Contrast to Mariah's 2 weeks at #2 on ACR:

 

AIWFCIY's 1st week at #2 on ACR (2018)

65,004 (61,794 SES, 3,210 pure sales)

0.23% behind Sweet but Psycho at #1 (65,156)

if on SCR, would be 126,798 (95% ahead)

 

AIWFCIY's 2nd week at #2 on ACR (2019)

74,076 (70,623 SES, 3,453 pure sales)

5.3% behind River at #1 (78,193)

if on SCR, would be 144,699 (85% ahead)

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by jimwatts

Update for week ending 10 December:

 

Mariah would have done around 70k (the highest #1 since Head & Heart in August) and Wham! around 63k (the highest #2 since Blinding Lights and Roses were fighting it out in April).

 

I believe there would have been 12 Christmas songs in the Top 13, with Positions dropping all the way to #8 and not even being Ariana’s most consumed song of the week. One place above it I have Santa Tell Me reaching a new peak of #7. There would be other Christmas songs reaching new peaks, notably Bublé at #4 and Kelly at #11. And this week is set to be even crazier!

 

1 2 All I want for Christmas is you (1)

2 7 Last Christmas (2)

3 12 Fairytale of New York (2)

4 22 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas (4)

5 20 Merry Christmas everyone (1)

6 24 Do they know it’s Christmas (1)

7 21 Santa tell me (7)

8 1 Positions (1)

9 33 Step into Christmas (9)

10 37 Rocking around the Christmas tree (Brenda Lee) (9)

11 30 Underneath the tree (11)

12 38 Driving home for Christmas (9)

13 42 I wish it could be Christmas everyday (4)

14 3 Mood (1)

15 5 Sweet melody (5)

16 6 Head & heart (1)

17 49 Merry Xmas everybody (1)

18 13 Midnight Sky (7)

19 - One more sleep (3)

20 8 Lemonade (3)

21 4 Therefore I am (2)

22 - It’s the most wonderful time of the year (18)

23 - Holly jolly Christmas (23)

24 - Jingle bell rock (22)

25 - Wonderful Christmastime (6)

26 - Happy Xmas (2)

27 10 Levitating (10)

28 - Mistletoe (19)

29 11 You broke me first (6)

30 9 See nobody (5)

31 25 34+35 (12)

32 19 Whoopty (19)

33 14 What you know bout love (7)

34 15 Prisoner (15)

35 23 Blonding lights (1)

36 - Sleigh ride (27)

37 - Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (30)

38 18 Really love (5)

39 - Santa baby (39)

40 - Rockin’ around the Christmas tree (Bieber) (40)

41 35 Paradise (29)

42 - Feliz Navidad (42)

43 28 WAP (1)

44 29 Looking for me (5)

45 31 Train wreck (22)

46 16 Monster (16)

47 36 Ain’t it different (3)

48 - This Christmas (48)

49 32 Diamonds (15)

50 27 Dynamite (3)

 

In an ACR-free world, Last Christmas would already be on a record 9th week at #2 without reaching #1! Probably due a 10th this Friday and maybe more after that too. Mariah's song would be on its 4th different run at #1 (something Blinding Lights also would have done) and, going by Joseph's post and the end of p2 plus your placements since, Someone You Loved would have just dropped out of the top 50 after 98 consecutive weeks.

 

I haven't seen what Mariah's exact SCR total would be this week, but 70k would put her 82% ahead of 'positions', so still a considerably bigger margin than Despacito and 3 Lions had (looks like she'll be joining that exclusive club anyway...)

Update for week ending 17 December:

 

The Christmas songs were dominant enough in the official chart - without ACR they would almost monopolise the Top 20.

Mariah’s 85k is the highest #1 sale since No Time to Die. I think every other position would be seeing it’s highest sale since last Christmas, including Wham!’s 78k at #2. There’d also be several other new peaks for Christmas songs.

 

1 1 All I want for Christmas is you (1)

2 2 Last Christmas (2)

3 3 Fairytale of New York (2)

4 5 Merry Christmas everyone (1)

5 4 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas (4)

6 6 Do they know it’s Christmas (1)

7 9 Step into Christmas (6)

8 7 Santa tell me (7)

9 10 Rocking around the Christmas tree (Brenda Lee) (9)

10 12 Driving home for Christmas (9)

11 11 Underneath the tree (11)

12 13 I wish it could be Christmas everyday (4)

13 19 One more sleep (3)

14 17 Merry Xmas everybody (1)

15 22 It’s the most wonderful time of the year (15)

16 26 Happy Xmas (2)

17 23 Holly jolly Christmas (17)

18 25 Wonderful Christmastime (6)

19 8 Positions (1)

20 24 Jingle bell rock (20)

21 28 Mistletoe (19)

22 14 Mood (1)

23 15 Sweet melody (5)

24 16 Head & heart (1)

25 36 Sleigh ride (25)

26 35 Blinding lights (1)

27 37 Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (Martin) (27)

28 39 Santa baby (28)

29 20 Lemonade (3)

30 31 34+35 (12)

31 32 Whoopty (19)

32 48 This Christmas (32)

33 18 Midnight Sky (7)

34 42 Feliz Navidad (34)

35 21 Therefore I am (2)

36 30 See nobody (5)

37 - Christmas lights (13)

38 27 Levitating (10)

39 29 You broke me first (6)

40 33 What you know bout love (7)

41 34 Prisoner (15)

42 - Without you (42)

43 40 - Rockin’ around the Christmas tree (Bieber) (40)

44 - White Christmas (5)

45 41 Paradise (29)

46 - Have yourself a merry little Christmas (46)

47 - Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (Sinatra) (47)

48 38 Really love (5)

49 - Santa’s coming for us (36)

50 46 Monster (16)

Edited December 19, 20204 yr by Jingle Jules

Think I missed out one of the #2 weeks for Wham! in last week's tally - this week would be the 11th: 5 on original release, 1 in 2017, 1 in 2018, 2 last year (forgot the Christmas chart where they would have been #2 behind Ladbaby but ahead of Mariah), and 2 so far this year. With yet another on the way.

 

I think Step Into Christmas would have a #6 peak from last year. Although I hadn't considered that Santa Tell Me might be ahead of it this week once streams were doubled.

mod intervention :P

Kelly still wouldn't be top 10 under Old Rules (just missing out to Chris Rea), and Elton would be just ahead of Ariana.

great work as ever though, I couldn't estimate it this accurately!

mod intervention :P

Kelly still wouldn't be top 10 under Old Rules (just missing out to Chris Rea), and Elton would be just ahead of Ariana.

great work as ever though, I couldn't estimate it this accurately!

Ah OK - thanks as usual for the help! :)

Update for week ending 24 December:

 

Taylor’s impact would have been much more muted than with Folklore, mainly due to the very high bar at the moment (I make it 46k for the Top 10 and over 21k for the Top 40). In fact the chart rules were her friend as it looks like she’s only have had 3 in the Top 40 anyway and they would have placed massively lower, with Willow being #17 according to my estimates.

 

1 1 All I want for Christmas is you (1)

2 2 Last Christmas (2)

3 3 Fairytale of New York (2)

4 4 Merry Christmas everyone (1)

5 6 Do they know it’s Christmas (1)

6 7 Step into Christmas (6)

7 5 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas (4)

8 10 Driving home for Christmas (8)

9 8 Santa tell me (7)

10 12 I wish it could be Christmas everyday (4)

11 9 Rocking around the Christmas tree (Lee) (9)

12 11 Underneath the tree (11)

13 14 Merry Xmas everybody (1)

14 13 One more sleep (3)

15 15 It’s the most wonderful time of the year (15)

16 16 Happy Xmas (2)

17 - Willow (17)

18 18 Wonderful Christmastime (6)

19 20 Jingle bell rock (19)

20 17 Holly jolly Christmas (17)

21 19 Positions (1)

22 21 Mistletoe (19)

23 25 Sleigh ride (23)

24 22 Mood (1)

25 37 Christmas lights (13)

26 23 Sweet melody (5)

27 28 Santa baby (27)

28 32 This Christmas (28)

29 27 Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (Martin) (27)

30 24 Head & heart (1)

31 31 Whoopty (19)

32 29 Lemonade (3)

33 30 34+35 (12)

34 - Champagne problems (34)

35 26 Blinding lights (1)

36 34 Feliz Navidad (34)

37 - No body, no crime (37)

38 43 Rockin’ around the Christmas tree (Bieber) (38)

39 33 Midnight Sky (7)

40 39 You broke me first (6)

41 38 Levitating (10)

42 42 Without you (42)

43 - Gold rush (43)

44 41 Prisoner (15)

45 - Tis the damn season (45)

46 - Baby it’s cold outside (Menzel) (24)

47 40 What you know bout love (7)

48 - Baby it’s cold outside (Elderedge) (48)

49 44 White Christmas (5)

50 47 Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (Sinatra) (47)

Update for week ending 31/12/20:

 

Lad Baby would still have made it despite Mariah and Wham! both being in 6 figures. I'’m estimating 113k for Mariah and 108k for Wham! I think Blinding Lights would not quite have managed to spend the whole year in the Top 40 but would still be Top 50.

 

Obviously Jess and Bieber's Rocking Around (as well as the Kunts) benefitted heavily from ACR rules this week. Without most of the competition being on ACR the whole Amazon exclusive project wouldn'’t really work.

 

However ironically the song Bieber probably wanted to get the attention was instead hurt by ACR, without which it would have been comfortably Top 40.

 

1 - Don’t stop me eatin’ (1)

2 1 All I want for Christmas is you (1)

3 2 Last Christmas (2)

4 3 Fairytale of New York (2)

5 4 Merry Christmas everyone (1)

6 5 Do they know it’s Christmas (1)

7 6 Step into Christmas (6)

8 8 Driving home for Christmas (8)

9 7 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas (4)

10 10 I wish it could be Christmas everyday (4)

11 9 Santa tell me (7)

12 12 Underneath the tree (11)

13 11 Rocking around the Christmas tree (Lee) (9)

14 13 Merry Xmas everybody (1)

15 14 One more sleep (3)

16 16 Happy Xmas (2)

17 15 It’s the most wonderful time of the year (15)

18 28 This Christmas (18)

19 20 Holly jolly Christmas (17)

20 18 Wonderful Christmastime (6)

21 19 Jingle bell rock (19)

22 - Boris Johnson is a f**king c**t (22)

23 22 Mistletoe (19)

24 27 Santa baby (24)

25 25 Christmas lights (13)

26 23 Sleigh ride (23)

27 38 Rocking around the Christmas tree (Bieber) (27)

28 29 Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (Martin) (27)

29 46 Baby it’s cold outside (Menzel) (24)

30 36 Feliz Navidad (30)

31 - Holy (11)

32 48 - Baby it’s cold outside (Elderedge) (32)

33 49 White Christmas (5)

34 - Have yourself a merry little Christmas (34)

35 24 Mood (1)

36 - Santa’s coming for us (36)

37 21 Positions (1)

38 50 Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! (Sinatra) (38)

39 - Santa Claus is coming to town (33)

40 26 Sweet melody (5)

41 - Christmas (17)

42 30 Head & heart (1)

43 31 Whoopty (19)

44 - 2000 miles (15)

45 - The Christmas song (40)

46 - All you’re dreaming of (46)

47 35 Blinding lights (1)

48 33 34+35 (12)

49 - I’ll be home (49)

50 - Lonely this Christmas (1)

Edited December 29, 20204 yr by Jingle Jules

surely Snowman would've been top 50?

surely Snowman would've been top 50?

No, but somewhere in the 50s.

Thanks for this, interesting to see as with every week, but with so much of the chart on ACR at the moment it really does alter the picture!

 

I'd be surprised if Holy would be that much higher in this chart - difficult to tell with so few sales figures available of course, but with its streams being relatively low still (audio streaming up from #99 to #82 this week) I think it could get leapfrogged by a few more ACR songs which are lower officially (perhaps even Head & Heart which is #44 on streaming and #60 officially) if all their streaming totals were doubled.