March 21, 20223 yr An early back-of-a-fag-packet prediction Semi 1 Safe predictions: Albania Lithuania Netherlands Ukraine Armenia Greece Norway On the bubble: Moldova Switzerland (Sasha is stage director and I think juries will really take to this) Latvia Semi 2 Should be fine: Poland Sweden Israel Serbia (I think the media gossip ahead of the show will really drive this) Azerbaijan Estonia On the bubble: Czech Republic Ireland Cyprus Georgia Semi 2 is really tricky as I can easily envisage Australia and Finland making it. Edited March 21, 20223 yr by ScottyEm
March 21, 20223 yr I agree that Serbia will make it in Semi 2, I think it will pick up surprising televote support from outside the expected countries due to it standing out and having the pre-show media buzz. Sweden, Poland and Estonia are the only three I'd be absolutely certain of making it through at this point though. Belgium I think should make it too though, I can see it getting very good jury support and not bad televote support.
March 21, 20223 yr I largely agree with Lex on semi 1, except in the past couple of days I've started to feel that Switzerland aren't making it and I think people might be being swayed just because they're coming off two really strong results. The song is a big nope. I'm with Scotty regarding Serbia right now. Well, maybe, I might have it borderline but there are a few songs I'd say have more of a struggle. Speaking of, to my ears, Israel is one of the most sure fire NQs of the year along with Slovenia, Bulgaria and San Marino. It was bad already, then they obviously got worried that a strong performance could still see them through so decided to ramp up how awful the song is to get rid of any shot it had.
March 21, 20223 yr Israel don't want to do well so they sabotaged a bad entry that might have turned out to be popular? Is MBD in on this? Edited March 21, 20223 yr by Colm
April 9, 20223 yr Author So I've done my own simulation of the semis and this is broadly how I see the semis going (a very fine margin of error especially from 7th to 12th). Semi One 01 Greece 02 Norway 03 Albania 04 Ukraine 05 Netherlands 06 Portugal 07 Iceland 08 Austria 09 Moldova 10 Latvia 11 Armenia 12 Lithuania 13 Denmark 14 Switzerland 15 Croatia 16 Bulgaria 17 Slovenia Semi Two 01 Sweden 02 Poland 03 Australia 04 Estonia 05 Cyprus 06 Finland 07 Belgium 08 Czech Republic 09 Montenegro 10 Ireland 11 Romania 12 Malta 13 Georgia 14 Azerbaijan 15 Israel 16 North Macedonia 17 Serbia 18 San Marino
April 16, 20223 yr Author Is it not commonly expected that Serbia will qualify? My take on Serbia is that the fans on twitter might think it's a laugh but virtually nobody beyond the balkans will get it at all. And that might be enough for Serbia some times but their only strong points are going to be coming from Montenegro, North Macedonia and maybe Romania. Rough guide is you need at least 100 points to qualify but even if all three of those countries give Serbia the double 12 then it'd still only be on 72 points (and I actually think Montenegro is the balkan vote magnet so that's not even very likely).
April 16, 20223 yr If Serbia incorporate a few translations into the performance in the way they did it at Israel Calling, to help get the message across, I think the appeal is going to extend far beyond the Balkans. (I hated it at first but it's probably the grower of the season for me now)
April 17, 20223 yr Semi-final 1: Sure qualifier: Ukraine, Netherlands, Greece, Norway Likely qualifier: Albania, Austria Toss-up: Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Denmark, Armenia Unlikely qualifier: Switzerland, Slovenia, Moldova, Iceland Sure non-qualifier: Bulgaria, Croatia Semi-final 2: Sure qualifier: Australia, Poland, Sweden Likely qualifier: Finland, Serbia, Cyprus, Estonia Toss-up: Azerbaijan, San Marino, Ireland, Romania, Montenegro, Belgium Unlikely qualifier: Israel, Georgia, Malta, Czech Republic Sure non-qualifier: North Macedonia Semi-final 2 is a bloodbath imo
April 24, 20223 yr Semi 1 01. Ukraine: 'Stefania' by Kalush Orchestra - Televote winner 02. Greece: 'Die Together' by Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord - Jury winner 03. Norway: 'Give That Wolf A Banana' by Subwoolfer 04. Netherlands: 'De Diepte' by S10 05. Albania: 'Sekret' by Ronela Hajati 06. Armenia: 'Snap' by Rosa Linn 07. Lithuania: 'Sentimentai' by Monika Liu 08. Denmark: 'The Show' by Reddi 09. Moldova: 'Trenulețul' by Zdob și Zdub & Frații Advahov 10. Latvia: 'Eat Your Salad' by Citi Zēni --- 11. Croatia: 'Guilty Pleasure' by Mia Dimšić 12. Iceland: 'Með hækkandi sól' by Systur 13. Switzerland: 'Boys Do Cry' by Marius Bear 14. Austria: 'Halo' by LUM!X ft. Pia Maria 15. Portugal: 'saudade, saudade' by Maro 16. Bulgaria: 'Intention' by Intelligent Music Project 17. Slovenia: 'Disko' by LPS Semi 2 01. Sweden: 'Hold Me Closer' by Cornelia Jakobs - Jury and televote winner 02. Czech Republic: 'Lights Off' by We Are Domi 03. Australia: 'Not The Same' by Sheldon Riley 04. Estonia: 'Hope' by Stefan 05. Finland: 'Jezebel' by The Rasmus 06. Serbia: 'In corpore sano' by Konstrakta 07. Poland: 'River' by Ochman 08. Cyprus: 'Ela' by Andromache 09. Ireland: 'That's Rich' by Brooke 10. Georgia: 'Lock Me In' by Circus Mircus --- 11. Belgium: 'Miss You' by Jérémie Makiese 12. Romania: 'Llámame' by WRS 13. Montenegro: 'Breathe' by Vladana 14. San Marino: 'Stripper' by Achille Lauro 15. Israel: 'I.M' by Michael Ben David 16. Azerbaijan: 'Fade To Black' by Nadir Rustamli 17. Malta: 'I Am What I Am' by Emma Muscat 18. North Macedonia: 'Circles' by Andrea
May 1, 20223 yr As I just talked about the chances of all the semi 1 songs on the ESCXtra livestream, I feel confident making a rare prediction. Rehearsals are still coming out but we have a little bit of an idea of the direction they're all going now. This might contain spoilers for dresses and outfits if you care about that sort of thing. Semi 1 01. Ukraine: Kalush Orchestra - Stefania This rehearsal looks spot-on, I don't think Ukraine are going to quite be such a landslide winner everyone thinks they are but they should dominate the semi at least. 02. Greece: Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord - Die Together Definitely one to keep an eye on, I think this has been underrated outside this forum but it's one of the strongest pop songs in the contest . 03. Norway: Subwoolfer - Give That Wolf A Banana coming round to this one's technical brilliance if not my love of it as an entry, no problem qualifying 04. Lithuania: Monika Liu - Sentimentai yes I'm biased but everything seems to be going right for them, Monika looks a competent performer and her outfit and staging look incredible 05. Moldova: Zdob și Zdub & Frații Advahov - Trenulețul looks like typical good Eurovision craziness 06. Netherlands: S10 - De Diepte looks like a ballad a lot of people are excited about, I think the lyrics not translating will work against it, but it looks and sounds beautiful. 07. Switzerland: Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry This is dangerous. I think we've been writing it off because the Eurofans genuinely despise it but there's an audience out there and it will hit with those. Feel like it'll knock out a favourite. 08. Albania: Ronela Hajati - Sekret strong opener, will probably do enough to sneak in but could get knocked out. 09. Austria: LUM!X ft. Pia Maria - Halo yes we're all worried about her live vocals but it sounds like they're taking steps to correct that and the staging SOUNDS really promising, plus it's after a long pretty dead zone as a party song, I think it could be okay. 10. Iceland: Systur - Með hækkandi sól very good folk song for the audience at home and I think it will also strike enough interest to squeak over the line, their vocals should be on point. --- 11. Denmark: Reddi - The Show the one could be the exception to that dead zone but I'm not certain it's instant enough even though its tempo change makes it more interesting than I think many have been touting. Easily could get knocked out by Iceland. 12. Croatia: Mia Dimšić - Guilty Pleasure the rehearsal looks strong on this one but I think this has been outclassed in simple pop songs and it's in an unfortunate position in the running order where it can't take advantage of being a calm between the storms, which it could have if it were next to Moldova or Norway. 13. Armenia: Rosa Linn - Snap going to get completely memory-holed by people recovering from space wolves 14. Latvia: Citi Zēni - Eat Your Salad also will get memory-holed by space wolves in a different way, this looks like a huge hot mess and looks amateurish as a joke entry for voters comparing it against Subwoolfer 15. Portugal: Maro - saudade, saudade starts off the portugal > croatia > denmark death train, I think it's very possible all three of these fail to qualify. This looks nice and fits the theme but it's far too downer to get a wide audience I think. 16. Slovenia: LPS - Disko apparently going to have a disco ball. I don't think that'll save them being forgotten. 17. Bulgaria: Intelligent Music Project - Intention we stan, I'm going to love this performance and then immediately forget about it as I concern myself with hoping that Lithuania and Moldova qualify.
May 7, 20223 yr Author So now we've had all the rehearsals I'm thinking something like this Semi One 01 Greece 02 Ukraine 03 Norway 04 Armenia 05 Albania 06 Netherlands 07 Portugal 08 Austria 09 Switzerland 10 Latvia 11 Moldova 12 Lithuania 13 Denmark 14 Iceland 15 Croatia 16 Slovenia 17 Bulgaria Semi Two 01 Sweden 02 Poland 03 Australia 04 Czech Republic 05 Ireland 06 Cyprus 07 Serbia 08 Estonia 09 Finland 10 San Marino 11 Israel 12 Romania 13 Belgium 14 Georgia 15 Azerbaijan 16 Montenegro 17 Malta 18 North Macedonia Semi Two in particular is a nightmare predictions wise - 15 potential qualifiers going for 10 spots so wouldn't be surprised if I'm way off with these ones (I still think Serbia is this year's Telemoveis but it seems to have struck a chord in rehearsals). Assuming those qualifiers were the finalists then I'd see the final going like this 01 Sweden 02 United Kingdom 03 Spain 04 Ukraine 05 Italy 06 Norway 07 Greece 08 Poland 09 Czech Republic 10 Australia 11 Ireland 12 Albania 13 Serbia 14 Armenia 15 Netherlands 16 Cyprus 17 Latvia 18 Portugal 19 France 20 Estonia 21 Finland 22 Austria 23 San Marino 24 Switzerland 25 Germany
May 8, 20223 yr Semi 1 01. Ukraine: 'Stefania' by Kalush Orchestra - Televote winner 02. Greece: 'Die Together' by Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord - Jury winner 03. Norway: 'Give That Wolf A Banana' by Subwoolfer 04. Netherlands: 'De Diepte' by S10 05. Albania: 'Sekret' by Ronela Hajati 06. Armenia: 'Snap' by Rosa Linn 07. Lithuania: 'Sentimentai' by Monika Liu 08. Denmark: 'The Show' by Reddi 09. Moldova: 'Trenulețul' by Zdob și Zdub & Frații Advahov 10. Latvia: 'Eat Your Salad' by Citi Zēni --- 11. Croatia: 'Guilty Pleasure' by Mia Dimšić 12. Iceland: 'Með hækkandi sól' by Systur 13. Switzerland: 'Boys Do Cry' by Marius Bear 14. Austria: 'Halo' by LUM!X ft. Pia Maria 15. Portugal: 'saudade, saudade' by Maro 16. Bulgaria: 'Intention' by Intelligent Music Project 17. Slovenia: 'Disko' by LPS Semi 2 01. Sweden: 'Hold Me Closer' by Cornelia Jakobs - Jury and televote winner 02. Czech Republic: 'Lights Off' by We Are Domi 03. Australia: 'Not The Same' by Sheldon Riley 04. Estonia: 'Hope' by Stefan 05. Finland: 'Jezebel' by The Rasmus 06. Serbia: 'In corpore sano' by Konstrakta 07. Poland: 'River' by Ochman 08. Cyprus: 'Ela' by Andromache 09. Ireland: 'That's Rich' by Brooke 10. Georgia: 'Lock Me In' by Circus Mircus --- 11. Belgium: 'Miss You' by Jérémie Makiese 12. Romania: 'Llámame' by WRS 13. Montenegro: 'Breathe' by Vladana 14. San Marino: 'Stripper' by Achille Lauro 15. Israel: 'I.M' by Michael Ben David 16. Azerbaijan: 'Fade To Black' by Nadir Rustamli 17. Malta: 'I Am What I Am' by Emma Muscat 18. North Macedonia: 'Circles' by Andrea Post rehearsals, I'm taking out Moldova in semi 1 for Portugal, and in Semi 2 I'm taking Finland & Georgia out for Israel & Azerbaijan.
May 8, 20223 yr After the rehearsals: Semi-final 1: Sure qualifier: Ukraine, Greece, Norway Likely qualifier: Netherlands, Albania, Austria, Portugal Toss-up: Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, Armenia, Slovenia Unlikely qualifier: Switzerland, Moldova, Iceland Sure non-qualifier: Bulgaria, Croatia Semi-final 2: Sure qualifier: Australia, Poland, Sweden Likely qualifier: Serbia, Romania Toss-up: Azerbaijan, San Marino, Ireland, Belgium, Finland, Cyprus, Estonia, Czech Republic Unlikely qualifier: Israel, Malta, Montenegro Sure non-qualifier: North Macedonia, Georgia
May 9, 20223 yr Semi 2 01. Sweden: Cornelia Jakobs - Hold Me Closer ez 02. Australia: Sheldon Riley - Not The Same one of the most visually memorable performances plus doing a sound that generally does well 03. Poland: Ochman - River 04. Finland: The Rasmus - Jezebel will sate the rock fans enough 05. Estonia: Stefan - Hope 06. Serbia: Konstrakta - In Corpore Sano again, weird enough to stick in the mind even after being on 3rd, and I don't think this semi has enough strong performances where something this esoteric will get lost 07. Azerbaijan: Nadir Rustamli - Fade To Black dark horse that no one was talking about 08. Montenegro: Vladana - Breathe good draw, dramatic enough to sneak through 09. Ireland: Brooke - That's Rich little iffy on this but it's done good on the draw for a pop song 10. San Marino: Achille Lauro - Stripper will come across like too much of a tribute act to last year's winner but there's probably some support for that and it's had good rehearsals --- 11. Czech Republic: We Are Domi - Lights Off this COULD easily qualify but it's coming after Sweden and I think people will have made their mind up by that point 12. Cyprus: Andromache - Ela feels like this one will slip through the cracks 13. Belgium: Jérémie Makiese - Miss You the success of this depends upon people's ability to enjoy modern RnB and I don't think this is nailed on like some songs of that genre would be plus there has to be a bit of racism tax tacked on sadly 14. Malta: Emma Muscat - I Am What I Am this is stuck between two memorable songs which will make people forget this 15. Romania: WRS - Llámame don't think this is what's people are going for in Eurovision 16. Georgia: Circus Mircus - Lock Me In sounds like a really interesting stage performance for this but it feels just too esoteric (unlike Serbia, which is more widely appealing musically) to get high support from either jury or televote 17. North Macedonia: Andrea - Circles unquestionably one of the weaker songs in this semi and is surrounded by pop songs doing pop better. 18. Israel: Michael Ben David - I.M. second in the running order, seems like a mess of a song, nothing is going right honestly though outside of Sweden winning and North Macedonia/Israel failing I feel nothing is nailed on
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