Some of the released polling (not an 'Exit Poll') is suggesting a small majority for the conservative/far right coalition but it looks v tight at the moment.

With the majority of the votes counted it looks like the conservatives don't have their majority - and Sanchez' PSOE have done better than expected by even gaining some seats.

 

Of course PP are the biggest gainers and seemingly Vox have lost the most but this was already pretty much priced in, PP + Vox is a little bit short of a majority, while PSOE + Sumar is a bit further behind but the smaller regional parties would probably work with them over the right-wing coalition. Looks like a lot of dealmaking to be done and very good that Vox themselves are not the kingmakers.

 

honestly given how the polls were this is a decent result.

Yes that is a good but not great result. Aren't the left wing coalition on fewer seats than before? That makes the decision to call a General election a bit foolhardy even if democratic.

Looks like if the result isn’t changed by the final couple of percent to be counted, then it’s gonna be a fairly unstable parli. Couple be looking at a second election this year

Latest figures I have seen give the Socialists and allies 172 seats against 171 for PP and allies. Catalan nationalists have the remaining seven seats. Vox lost just over one-third of their seats.

I'm guessing if the left block does align with the separatists to get a paper thin majority that would be a poisoned chalice as Junta would demand too high a price.

 

In the same way that Labour would never coalition with the SNP

The Spanish are probably getting another election soon, and there might even be momentum on Sanchez' side, despite the Conservatives claiming victory due to being in first, he can definitely claim his decision to catch the opposition off-guard with an early election was a good one.

 

If it stays as it is (as Suede posted above), left bloc beats the right bloc but it would be a razor-thin thing. No idea how Junts would play but they wouldn't in a way that benefits the right more than the left.

They are in theory a right-wing party as I understand it, but they’d never align with hyperunionists like PP or the actually fash Vox

 

 

But mixed, but the fall of Vox is welcome. However how much of that is because PP has been expanding into their airspace idk.

 

 

 

 

Talking of the mainstream right flirting with Nazis, the current head of the CDU said it was fine to work with the current iteration of the Nazis, the AfD, at the local level. He’s had to try to frantically row that back. It is concerning tho as the great firewall of German politics is the only thing that is preventing the Nazis from taking over the eastern half of the country, gaining entry to the upper house and starting to derail and dismantle German democracy. A town elected a Nazi mayor last month for the first time since the 30s. After 16 of stability under Merkel, it’s quite a concerning outlook ahead. The 2024 state elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and most of all Saxony are going to be very tense

Latest figures I have seen give the Socialists and allies 172 seats against 171 for PP and allies. Catalan nationalists have the remaining seven seats. Vox lost just over one-third of their seats.

 

Looks like it was a gamble that ultimately paid off then to call a snap election to shock and test the momentum building after the local elections. In the end- an inconclusive result with no stable coalition possible, meaning further elections later in the year, which as Iz says could potentially be great for Sánchez in the longer run. The bigger story here, and it's great to see that fall in support for Vox, is that pandering to the far-right and the 'war on woke' (note: a word that can't ever be defined by those who use it most, apart from pointing towards a vague sense of 'things I don't like') only has limited mileage when it comes to crucial elections.

PP and Vox going in to coalition in towns seems to have scared a lot of people and posters like the one below seem to be mobilising the left/progressive alliance successfully more than generating support for the opposition.

 

@1683388905217839104

 

Final result:

 

Jacinda Ardern resigning as New Zealand PM next month.

 

Damn, she was really good, but best to go out while you can still be remembered fondly (and whenever I see Kiwis online they're always ready to talk her down so I get the sense she was getting somewhat less popular domestically)

 

9 months later, New Zealand does a drastic swing to the right in their elections and Chris Hipkins, who took over from Jacinta Arden, after her surprise resignation in January, concedes defeat to Christopher Luxon of the centre right National party who may govern with the populist New Zealand first party.

 

Yet another country's progressiveness bites the dust....

Edited October 14, 20231 yr by Smint

and nearby in Australia the general public have overwhelmingly voted no to a proposed consistutional change to give their indigenous peoples a voice in parliament.

9 months later, New Zealand does a drastic swing to the right in their elections and Chris Hipkins, who took over from Jacinta Arden, after her surprise resignation in January, concedes defeat to Christopher Luxon of the centre right National party who may govern with the populist New Zealand first party.

 

Yet another country's progressiveness bites the dust....

 

On the surface this does look a lot like the voters punishing the incumbent government for a few years of tough times (in particular the Covid response), in which case we could see a lot more governmental change around the world on the horizon, no matter the ideological leanings.

 

Jacinda had a bit of star power that Hipkins clearly has failed to muster though, and he seems to have been more centrist than her, making centrism completely unelectable... ahem. While the National government promises tax cuts etc.

Looks like good news in Poland as Law & Justice is probably getting removed from power after 8 years of ruling Poland as a hard-right 'conservative family' party. They're still winning the most seats but are falling short of a majority and the coalition of liberal and left parties is quite likely going to be the only group in the Sejm capable of forming a majority.

 

also this is the projected vote of Poles who live in Britain:

KO 45,9% (liberal centrist opposition)

PiS 13,7% (Law & Justice, governing far right)

Lewica 13,3% (The Left, leftists)

Trzecia Droga 12,7% (Third Way)

Konfederacja 11,2% (far-right people fortunately won't work with the other far-right people)

 

that's a 75% vote of liberals and leftists among that specific group, very good going from them.

Congratulations to Pedro Sánchez who has seen off a challenge from the right and been confirmed as PM of Spain again. *.*

 

In doing so they had to grant an amnesty to people involved in the Catalan independence movement during the past decade.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanch...prime-minister/

Good he got in but in a weaker position than before he voluntarily called a GE right?

Good he got in but in a weaker position than before he voluntarily called a GE right?

The election was only a few months earlier than scheduled. He didn't do a Theresa May.

From what I understand the general consensus is that he pulled a bit of a blinder by calling the bluff of the right wing (as they had momentum off the locals) and they got some performance anxiety. The socialists were widely predicted to suffer badly and I remember on election night reading everywhere how much better they did than expected and how it was the right call to go a few months earlier

Argentina on the other hand have elected a Far right populist President Javier Milai Happy fash today - although maybe not so much in the UK as he wants the Falklands back. :coffee:

And not looking good in Netherlands either with Geert Wilders '(whose been around for aeons) getting most seats with the Far right Party for Freedom party. Which sounds fun but isn't...

 

Early hours mind

And not looking good in Netherlands either with Geert Wilders '(whose been around for aeons) getting most seats with the Far right Party for Freedom party. Which sounds fun but isn't...

 

Early hours mind

 

Well his closest competitor is 10 seats behind (out of 150, so quite a reach) so they'll never close that gap. The first polls are usually only off by 2 seats max.

 

A sad day indeed...