October 29, 2024Oct 29 So Trump has admitted to paying for fake polls on Rogan, and rhe polld themdelved are reflecting the betting markets this year, the first year they have ever done that :lol: Those markets have been hijacked by the uber rich, some French. Elon also has a lot of money to spare, as we saw with his vote buying in Pen. We don't know if we can trust them, or if they are totally wrong again. When polls are even saying NH will switch... with absolutely no rrssoning behind it... After the abortion bans and the literal insurrection... There is reason to be suspicious. Appqrently Republican women are switching in record numbers, and gen z are lsrgely counted as independents, too. And look how indepenfent has suddenly dhot up in Nevada... In 2022 alonw, the polls were WILDLY wrong. They sre hsvibg trouble with Trump and fascism. We'll see whst happens snd if they need to reassess their merhodology. But saying TRUMP is ahesd nationally, when that didn't even happen vs historically unpopular Clinton...
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Didnt half the population of PR work in his hotels?? Anyway as Kingo says on CNN on election night, 'the way we do things here is we have to do the math and count the votes'.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 But Trump is fascist. It is fact. He is also a past incumbent snd things were terrible under him. :lol: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/20...o-harris-latest
October 30, 2024Oct 30 A week from now, will the 6pm BBC1 headline be "Fury worldwide as Trump wins a historic second term" or "Kamala Harris to be the first female President" :)
October 31, 2024Oct 31 A week from now, will the 6pm BBC1 headline be "Fury worldwide as Trump wins a historic second term" or "Kamala Harris to be the first female President" :) I think it’s more likely that we still won’t know the winner. Obviously, Trump will have claimed victory regardless of the evidence.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 My current opinion is that it’s close to 50/50 still I think that Puerto Rican joke really did more than harm than it should have it also deflected from the Middle East which was a big weakness for Harris
October 31, 2024Oct 31 More harm than it SHOULD have??? Msny things should have ended hid campaign and been BIGGER deals, snd this is one of them.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 I’ve voted yesterday. My anxiety is off the roof already and there’s so much at stake if orangina wins!!! My plans to move back to Europe are still in place, whether it will happen sooner than later, it all depends how this election will go!!!
October 31, 2024Oct 31 More harm than it SHOULD have??? Msny things should have ended hid campaign and been BIGGER deals, snd this is one of them. Quite, any other candidate, any other campaign would have been sunk from the huge barrage of racist, fascist rhetoric that has come out, from 'she happened to turn black', to stirring up a pogrom against Haitians after the debate, to John Kelly's relating of his praising of Hitler. These are all individual campaign-ending events, and they only haven't sunk the campaign because he's Trump and the media do not do their due diligence when it comes to condemning him in the way they would do anyone else who said the offensive things he does. The Puerto Rico debacle probably only gained traction because it didn't have Trump at the centre of it, because the media have a huge blindspot for him. That and the Madison Square Garden rally was only not the most fascist thing ever done at that venue in New York because the literal Nazis went on tour there. It would be hilarious and highly deserved if it causes him to lose the big Puerto Rican diaspora states like *checks notes* Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, but something like that should have caused the media cycle to whip up in condemnation long before.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 Would be monumental if he manages to destroy the momentum of Latino voters swinging red because of a series of racist remarks against them
October 31, 2024Oct 31 More harm than it SHOULD have??? Msny things should have ended hid campaign and been BIGGER deals, snd this is one of them. He was a hired warm up comedian. Nothing to do with the campaign or policies probably doesn’t even know Trump. The crowd didn’t laugh or anything. He’s a roast comedian apparently all they do is just out of pocket stuff. Obviously it was a bad choice but o don’t see how it should effect anyone’s vote or endorsement but apparently it is
October 31, 2024Oct 31 He was a hired warm up comedian. Nothing to do with the campaign or policies probably doesn’t even know Trump. The crowd didn’t laugh or anything. He’s a roast comedian apparently all they do is just out of pocket stuff. Obviously it was a bad choice but o don’t see how it should effect anyone’s vote or endorsement but apparently it is Everything that happens at a rally has everything to do with the campaign. If you perform at a rally for a fascist, you support fascism. It’s quite simple.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 Additionally, anyone given a prominent speaker position for a campaign like that, in that manner, has language signed off by the campaign. I don't see why one would defend the Trump campaign (from anything, but specifically this for now) from being associated with this person that they chose to appear at their rally. It's not like he was the only one either, the evening was packed with white nationalists and racists, because that's who the Trump campaign is for.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 Surprised at Pennsylvannia being the closest of the northern swing states when it was Wisconsin last time. I think after reading some of the r/ElectionPolls on reddit that Harris is more likely to win, it just seems like the polls are just too much underestimating youth vote, overcompensaiting for the mistakes in the in 2020 poll together with there being some dodgy 'red' polls. Thats three things possibly boosting Harris vs the current poll averages. On the other hand though, it could have been youth vote underestimated in polls is something that always happens and they still ended up being too pro-Democrat in 2016 and 2020? Still think its more likely for a Harris win though.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 Surprised at Pennsylvannia being the closest of the northern swing states when it was Wisconsin last time. I think after reading some of the r/ElectionPolls on reddit that Harris is more likely to win, it just seems like the polls are just too much underestimating youth vote, overcompensaiting for the mistakes in the in 2020 poll together with there being some dodgy 'red' polls. Thats three things possibly boosting Harris vs the current poll averages. On the other hand though, it could have been youth vote underestimated in polls is something that always happens and they still ended up being too pro-Democrat in 2016 and 2020? Still think its more likely for a Harris win though. They're all about equally close, though the polls tightening and refusing to move in almost all of the swing states this last month has been suspiciously static and has caused suspicions of poll herding for those reasons you state, such that even if some polls find results different from a virtual tie, they compensate their model to adjust closer. FWIW I'm at this stage more confident about Dems winning PA than I am them winning WI. Also yes there are lots of dodgy red polls and commentators. There also seems to be a layer of 'non-partisan' ones that pride themselves on being supposedly neutral yet they always have their priors and results pointing to a Trump and Republican victory. Curious. I think drawing too many conclusions from early vote, crosstabs or poll analysis is getting yourself into the weeds, but the broader picture is that polls that aren't about intention to vote (so enthusiasm, favourability, voter grouping opinions) are looking pretty positive for the Democrats getting a good voting environment to see them over the line.
October 31, 2024Oct 31 He was a hired warm up comedian. Nothing to do with the campaign or policies probably doesn’t even know Trump. The crowd didn’t laugh or anything. He’s a roast comedian apparently all they do is just out of pocket stuff. Obviously it was a bad choice but o don’t see how it should effect anyone’s vote or endorsement but apparently it is Everything that night that was said, it's exactly what Trump campaign and policies are!!! Quote 'America is for americans, and americans only' was said at campaign as well!!!
October 31, 2024Oct 31 Everything that night that was said, it's exactly what Trump campaign and policies are!!! Quote 'America is for americans, and americans only' was said at campaign as well!!! That’s different because that was Stephen Miller who is clearly associated with the campaign. There was a Puerto Rican with 20 million followers who withdrew his endorsement of Trump after that joke I just find it odd how you were endorsing someone but a random comedian makes a joke you don’t like and suddenly you want someone else to win? Really Michigan is going to be a big one to watch because Trump should win it BUT if you look at polls Trump is ahead in a two horse race but with multi candidates he’s not and RFK can’t get his name removed so it really might end up being decided by people voting Stein or RFK. A lot of Muslims will vote Stein whereas if she wasn’t there they might even vote Trump as they’re really against the Biden administration so bizarrely Stein could even be helping Kamala there. I still think he’ll just about take it but it’ll be close. If I was to predict I’d say Trump will get Nevada, Georgia, NC and Arizona then Kamala will get Wisconsin while PA and Michigan are real anything can happen
October 31, 2024Oct 31 Anyone hear the cnn interview where a Republican asked left wing pro Palestinian commentator Mehdi Hasan to ‘watch his bleeper doesn’t go off’ during a debate.
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