October 4, 2024Oct 4 Trump has no basis to claim that he can end the war, it's just his usual ego bullshit - and advocating for ending the war on anything that isn't on Ukraine's terms is Russian apologia (I mean in British and Irish terms this is like the UK coming back for the Republic). Sure you can have an anti-western perspective without being a Russian apologist, but on the issue of Ukraine the western perspective is the correct one, they need to be able to defend themselves from aggressive actors and money sent to Ukraine is directly defending the sphere of democracy by proxy. I find most anti-western perspectives on Ukraine tend to ignore it being its own state actor with desires to defend its own territory and instead focus on it being a pawn between Russia and the West, which makes it easier to justify Russian talking points.
October 4, 2024Oct 4 His foreign policy is basically: Russian apologism, Western cringe, and unrealistic idealism. We should be glad he is FAR away from any serious discussions about foreign policy. He'd hand it all over to Russia and China via naivety.
October 5, 2024Oct 5 If Harris wins, does anyone else think Biden might step down soon after the election?
October 5, 2024Oct 5 If Harris wins, does anyone else think Biden might step down soon after the election? I wish he would. A question on Quora was would she need to be sworn in twice. Yes she would. If she didn't and became President for a few weeks would she be shortest serving ever? Didn't one die very soon after being sworn in?
October 5, 2024Oct 5 I'm hearing they are discarding votes cast in Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Georgia!! WOW. The Republicans aren't even pretending to care about democracy anymore.
October 5, 2024Oct 5 I wish he would. A question on Quora was would she need to be sworn in twice. Yes she would. If she didn't and became President for a few weeks would she be shortest serving ever? Didn't one die very soon after being sworn in? Roosevelt died shortly after being inaugurated for a fourth term, before the two-term limit was introduced. My question specifically related to Harris winning the election, so your question isn't relevant. It would simply mean Harris being sworn in a couple months early and, potentially serving just over eight years as president. If a VP becomes president in the second half of a presidential term, that time does not count towards the two-term limit. It is, theoretically, possible for someone to serve ten years as president.
October 5, 2024Oct 5 And theoretically possible for someone to serve as many terms as they like as VP!
October 5, 2024Oct 5 Bodes another question is the US system anti democratic in that many presidents could get more than 2 terms but people simply can’t vote for them?
October 5, 2024Oct 5 Quite a long read but Michael Moore predicts a Harris victory and possibly even a landslide caused by women voting for her. https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/do-the-math-trump-is-toast
October 6, 2024Oct 6 I can't believe people are holding up the Israel stuff as a reason not to vote for Kamala when Trump has the same position but probably worse. I also can't believe in the entire discourse that people seem to be wilfully ignorant that the entire reason people are 'standing with' Israel is to not go on their target list too...
October 6, 2024Oct 6 I can't believe people are holding up the Israel stuff as a reason not to vote for Kamala when Trump has the same position but probably worse. I also can't believe in the entire discourse that people seem to be wilfully ignorant that the entire reason people are 'standing with' Israel is to not go on their target list too... Can you really be worse? Are we saying we have a genocide now but Trump will be Genocide deluxe version? At what point does it become silly to “but trump” or “lesser evil” a situation? A million dead? What’s the barometer here. You have hundreds of entire bloodlines wiped out. Great grandfathers second cousins they’re all dead. Purely innocent people funded and supported by the current administration. I get the logic from afar but if you think about it properly it’s a pretty preposterous claim. One thing you can say with Trump is that he’s gettable. He can be a room with a UFC fighter and come out saying the war is horrible it’s got to stop. You can use his narcissism almost to pressure him into certain decisions. You can’t do anything with people like Biden and Harris they’ll just keep saying we want the violence to stop but not do anything. It’s been almost a year of calling for a ceasefire while sending weapons that they know will be used to kill masses of innocent people. Should aiding and abetting a genocide really be rewarded with a vote? To me it shows how politics can morally bankrupt people because really they’ve done everything possible to show they don’t deserve anyone’s vote. Especially in the last month. I don’t know what the latter part of your post is referring to but allowing or funding war crimes is surely inexcusable I don’t know what excuse is possible. The lesser evil is currently overseeing some of the most evil things I’ve ever seen in my life. In other important news Jill Stein was successfully sued off the ballot by Democrats in Nevada which could even decide the election as I’m sure she was due to get quite a few disenfranchised votes there. If people care enough they can still write in I guess.
October 6, 2024Oct 6 So I think equivocating it as 'well what can Trump really do that's so bad compared to Biden/Harris aiding & abetting Israel' does miss just how insane Republicans are on the issue of Israel. Trump himself, maybe he's ambivalent (I think he doesn't care and will just respond positively to a Netanyahu ego rub and we know Bibi's been angling for that), but there's enough people who'd make up part of any cabinet in the GOP that would probably happily take every dollar currently going to Ukraine and redirect it straight into the hands of Israel. e.g: @1842243586894778664
October 7, 2024Oct 7 Can you really be worse? Are we saying we have a genocide now but Trump will be Genocide deluxe version? At what point does it become silly to “but trump” or “lesser evil” a situation? A million dead? What’s the barometer here. You have hundreds of entire bloodlines wiped out. Great grandfathers second cousins they’re all dead. Purely innocent people funded and supported by the current administration. I get the logic from afar but if you think about it properly it’s a pretty preposterous claim. One thing you can say with Trump is that he’s gettable. He can be a room with a UFC fighter and come out saying the war is horrible it’s got to stop. You can use his narcissism almost to pressure him into certain decisions. You can’t do anything with people like Biden and Harris they’ll just keep saying we want the violence to stop but not do anything. It’s been almost a year of calling for a ceasefire while sending weapons that they know will be used to kill masses of innocent people. Should aiding and abetting a genocide really be rewarded with a vote? To me it shows how politics can morally bankrupt people because really they’ve done everything possible to show they don’t deserve anyone’s vote. Especially in the last month. I don’t know what the latter part of your post is referring to but allowing or funding war crimes is surely inexcusable I don’t know what excuse is possible. The lesser evil is currently overseeing some of the most evil things I’ve ever seen in my life. In other important news Jill Stein was successfully sued off the ballot by Democrats in Nevada which could even decide the election as I’m sure she was due to get quite a few disenfranchised votes there. If people care enough they can still write in I guess. The alternative is not voting and letting literal fascists win. I think the choice is super clear. They can debate about the problem within Democratic Party when they are safely in power.
October 17, 2024Oct 17 The polls in the last 10 days have been all over the place. A Fox News poll had Trump up 2 nationally but down 6 in battleground states https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-...-nationally.amp That raises the question of whether the Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote. In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP candidate who lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. Seems preposterous and nonsense to me. Other polls will vary from even nationally to Kamala 5 up. Some polls have Trump up 3 in PA others have Kamala up 3 in NC when technically it should be the other way around Current odds Trump 4/7 Kamala 6/4 Trump is now seen as favourite. I still see it 50/50 ish. Avoiding the 3rd debate seems to have worked out for Trump. The one thing that makes me think Trump is winning is that Kamala is doing Fox News interviews and her team are desperate for a new debate etc and also seem to be pushing for a Joe Rogan appearance while the Trump team seem content. The vibes seem to be a little panicky which is maybe why Obama was pleading with black men to show out for Kamala as so far the data is showing they are not. All battleground states can still go either way in my opinion
October 17, 2024Oct 17 Interesting that Kamala responded to being called 'media-shy' by doing debates from radio hosts to podcasts to FOX news, while Trump has been incredibly reclusive. Hopefully enough people take up the 'what has he got to hide' message. I think it's ridiculous that major political office candidates in major democracies still have a 'pick and choose' attitude to debates, a couple of them during the election period is not much of an imposition and whatever format you choose they're good for voters. I would put little stock in the odds, they're being led by Polymarket which both has a huge crypto market and there's reports of a single rich foreign millionaire dumping millions on Trump there that has shifted the odds to reflect. Shouldn't treat them like polls. That and there's a lot of polls with dodgy methodology and funded by Republican donors out there - ostensibly to allow a steal. Overall I've also still got it at 50/50, I'm not sure I'd trust the analysis of someone who thinks otherwise but the early voting stats in Pennsylvania and Georgia have me wanting to believe it'll be okay.
October 17, 2024Oct 17 further info on the Polymarket weirdness, it's quite an interesting sideplot in that this is either a French millionaire with more money than sense or the point man for billionaires (Elon) attempting to shift reality by shifting the odds https://www.newsweek.com/who-polymarket-mys...edi9999-1969646
October 17, 2024Oct 17 Ah, just like the polls ssying Romney was going to beat Obama, then! That too, and McCain with Obama, it's happened before with Republicans though not quite as brazen as this I think. @1846597997507092901 anyway if you're confident in Kamala (I may be...) there's value in those odds.
October 17, 2024Oct 17 Well I’m going by https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-pol...election/winner not polymarket which is very different, they are crypto based. The proper bookmakers are more stable
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