October 22, 2024Oct 22 If my maths is correct, Brown Eyed Girl will almost certainly be back at the expense of Homesick next week.
October 22, 2024Oct 22 Author If my maths is correct, Brown Eyed Girl will almost certainly be back at the expense of Homesick next week. I agree as there may well not be any other new or re-entries next week. “Carnival” is also heading swiftly for the exit but may last 1 more week.
October 22, 2024Oct 22 I agree as there may well not be any other new or re-entries next week. “Carnival” is also heading swiftly for the exit but may last 1 more week. Is Carnival now behind Never Lose Me? Thought it would last longer than the latter... Can't complain about it missing out :D
October 22, 2024Oct 22 Author Is Carnival now behind Never Lose Me? Thought it would last longer than the latter... Can't complain about it missing out :D Yes “Never Lose Me” seems to have had a very slight rally recently and only dropped 93-94 this week - expect it to be gone pretty soon nonetheless.
October 22, 2024Oct 22 Yes “Never Lose Me” seems to have had a very slight rally recently and only dropped 93-94 this week - expect it to be gone pretty soon nonetheless. Never Lose Me was very briefly back in the Spotify top 200 for a few days a couple of weeks ago, so that tracks.
October 22, 2024Oct 22 Author Not enough time for Espresso to catch Stick Season is there? No - in fact with the incredible “Beautiful Things” stability it could be close for #2.
October 22, 2024Oct 22 Brown Eyed Girl down 94 spots to #198 on Spotify today, unless that's a one-off low day, it will not be able to make the year end with those kind of numbers.
October 23, 2024Oct 23 It's the freshest top 10 since 2019. Perhaps, although even then, one of those songs first reached #1 in 2018, albeit right at the end ('Sweet But Psycho') Looks like the last time all the songs in the EOY top 10 first peaked that same year was 2013! Edited October 23, 2024Oct 23 by jimwatts
October 24, 2024Oct 24 The best selling single this year not to top the chart is Lose Control by Teddy Swims
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Author Week 43: 1 1 1,804,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (2.34m) 2 2 1,555,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 3 3 1,519,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (1.63m) 4 4 1,512,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 5 5 1,284,000 Hozier - Too Sweet 6 6 1,141,000 Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 7 7 993,000 Dasha - Austin 8 9 965,000 Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather 9 8 960,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please 10 10 956,000 Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe 11 11 932,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (2.12m) 12 12 912,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em 13 13 871,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (1.48m) 14 14 824,000 Myles Smith - Stargazing 15 15 790,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.79m) 16 16 772,000 Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help 17 17 756,000 Artemas - I Like The Way You Kiss Me 18 18 740,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (1.20m) 19 19 738,000 Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight 20 20 713,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start 21 21 697,000 Djo - End Of Beginning 22 22 672,000 Ariana Grande - We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love) 23 24 666,000 The Killers - Mr Brightside (5.96m) 24 23 665,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (990k) 25 25 662,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.85m) 26 26 655,000 Eminem - Houdini 27 27 644,000 Mark Ambor - Belong Together 28 28 618,000 Tommy Richman - Million Dollar Baby 29 29 602,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi 30 30 572,000 Ariana Grande - Yes, And? 31 32 568,000 Benson Boone - Slow It Down 32 31 567,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (730k) 33 33 553,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (1.33m) 34 34 552,000 Taylor Swift - I Can Do It With A Broken Heart 35 36 548,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (740k) 36 35 547,000 Tyler - Water (900k) 37 37 542,000 Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us 38 38 540,000 Fleetwood Mac - Everywhere (3.49m) 39 39 536,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (4.13m) 40 40 526,000 Kenya Grace - Strangers (1.04m) 45 501,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Taste 48 489,000 Bl3ss & CamrinWatsin featuring Bbyclose - Kisses 54 478,000 Chappell Roan - Hot To Go! 83 391,000 Chase & Status and Stormzy - Backbone 92 378,000 Charli XCX & Billie Eilish - Guess “Brown Eyed Girl” back replacing “Homesick”
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Author I had a proper go at estimating some of the likely future new entries: Kehlani 360k Wildflower 355k Die With A Smile 347k Somedays 295k I Love You, I’m Sorry 265k Sailor Song 260k
October 29, 2024Oct 29 How well are we predicting Christmas songs to do this year? Predicting a big sales increase from last year but lower end of year positions. Mariah, Wham and Brenda all nailed on but can anyone others make it? Based on trends I predict Wham finishing at 28, Mariah at 37 and Brenda at 65
October 29, 2024Oct 29 I’d give the Pogues a 50/50 shot at making it probably. Do you have an estimate for 360 Julian? That may have a better chance than I initially predicted.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Author Do you have an estimate for 360 Julian? That may have a better chance than I initially predicted. Getting 353k. It dropped to around 11k last week but if it stabilises around that level it could maybe make it.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Getting 353k. It dropped to around 11k last week but if it stabilises around that level it could maybe make it. Thank you! I imagine it probably won't hold up well enough tbh. I expect Move to be more of a factor, that didn't drop at all this week and I have that at ~320,000 so I think that could definitely make it.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Author Thank you! I imagine it probably won't hold up well enough tbh. I expect Move to be more of a factor, that didn't drop at all this week and I have that at ~320,000 so I think that could definitely make it. Yeah “Move” is tricky to estimate as it didn’t chart for its first few weeks, but it’s done 118k just in the 6 weeks after going silver, so 320k seems on the conservative side if anything. A couple of other songs starting to struggle now aside from the ones I’ve mentioned before. I’m not convinced “Don’t Look Back In Anger” will hold as it’s #96 and now back to its long term level of 7k per week or so. “Take On Me” at #90 seems to be down to 6k per week. “Dance The Night” I had thought was very safe but it’s really fading now and moved 78-81 this week implying it did less than 5k.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 A couple of other songs starting to struggle now aside from the ones I’ve mentioned before. I’m not convinced “Don’t Look Back In Anger” will hold as it’s #96 and now back to its long term level of 7k per week or so. “Take On Me” at #90 seems to be down to 6k per week. “Dance The Night” I had thought was very safe but it’s really fading now and moved 78-81 this week implying it did less than 5k. Oh wow, my estimates for Take on Me and Dance the Night have been far too generous recently in that case. I’m very surprised as to how short-lived the Oasis boost has been and agree that Don’t Look Back in Anger is in trouble. How would you rate Naive’s chances? Its Spotify numbers have dropped a lot in the past month or so.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 Author How would you rate Naive’s chances? Its Spotify numbers have dropped a lot in the past month or so. Moved 84-86 this week but still seems to be doing 7.5k per week or so. I think more likely to survive than not.
October 29, 2024Oct 29 So on the current list the ones unlikely to survive are: Exes Take On Me My Love Mine All Mine Dog Days Are Over Never Lose Me Don't Look Back In Anger Popular Carnival Brown Eyed Girl Home? 10 more slots to fill Wham Mariah Brenda Sailor Song I Love You I'm Sorry Kehlani Wildflower Gaga and Bruno Somedays Move?
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