Nah, I think Polanski will do it, his social media has this acting like a done deal. This is this guy staking his claim for a seat at the next election, possibly also emphasising that the Greens are a democratic party by not technically parachuting in Zack from another part of London.

Zach Polanski has been selected as the Green’s candidate. If he loses (which at the moment is quite likely), then I can see the Greens’ support begin to dry up.

Labour have selected Sagal Abdi-Wali, a Camden councillor and Somalian-born refugee.

I’m predicting a Labour win on this one.

The Greens were very much benefitting from Kier Starmer being leader of Labour and Zach managing to cut through on the left.

But it does feel like things have shifted with Burnham and very much back into Labour's favour. It also feels like the momentum that the Greens had at the start of the year has stalled.

Its a big gamble for Polanski and the Greens in general.

i do hope he wins because it will be nice to have a bit more representation left of labour but if he loses the green party is lowk cooked

well ig there’s a more unified choice for the left next ge if that happens 🤷

The comments under labours candidate selection are as glorious a read as I expected 🙄 vote British for British values but only use and act on said British values if said person to vote for is white. 😔

The candidates for the Holborn & St Pancras by-election have been announced. They are the following -

Sagal Abdi-Wali - Labour

Barmy Brunch - Monster Raving Loony

Ewan Cameron - Conservative

Tom Darwood - Independent

Clare Fischer - Climate

George Galloway - Workers Party

Tyler Johnson - Restore

Briony Kapoor - Rejoin EU

Peter Newman - Reform

Ketankumar Pipaliya - UK Voice

Zack Polanski - Green

Jonathan Silberman - Communist League

Helen Spiby-Vann - CPA

Patrick Spillman - Liberal Democrats

Ben Walker - UKIP

The surprise package on the list is George Galloway, who'll be taking time away from his exile in Russia to stand in this by-election. His proven record at piling up votes among Muslim populations could be crucial to who wins this election. He's not going to win, but the winner could depend on whether he takes more votes away from Labour or the Green Party.

In terms of the other parties standing, there's a whole smorgasbord to appeal to everyone across the political spectrum, from the Communist League on one side to the still surprisingly ongoing UKIP on the other. Of the less known parties, the Climate Party position themselves as a centre-right environmental party, the CPA are an evangelical Christian party, UK Voice have stood in many by-elections and position themselves as a centrist alternative to all the main political parties, whilst the motivation of the party known as Rejoin EU remains a mystery. The downright laugh-a-minute hilarious Count Binface declined to stand.

The Brett-Butler Prognosticator 4000 predicts that this will be a decent win for the Labour Party. They've selected a decent local candidate with experience at a local level, and I can't see Polanski winning this one. The undercard of this election will be an interesting one to look out for. Whilst I can't see either of them come close to winning, whoever gets more votes between the Conservatives and Reform UK will be able to control the narrative as to which party of the right has the momentum with them. If it's the Tories, which is what I predict, it will demonstrate that the Badenoch Bounce is real, and that Reform's controversies have hit is right where it hurts.

And if Labour do win this by-election (which I think they will), then I can see Andy Burnham calling a General Election before the end of the year. I can see some parallels with the 2017 Stoke-on-Trent by-election, when a still strong UKIP put their leader (Paul Nuttall) up in a winnable seat and lost, with Theresa May calling a GE not long afterwards in the belief that her main rival was wouldn't (which was correct, but still backfired). The Greens have been losing momentum since Burnham took over, and their leader not winning this by-election, coupled with stories of issues in the Green Party behind the scenes would give Burnham the confidence to go to the polls to seek a mandate he sorely lacks. It also means that he can see off the threat from the right at the key moment - Reform are currently against the ropes with no hope of getting anywhere near a majority; the Conservatives are currently rising but are at least nine months off being the undisputed leader on the right and a real threat to Labour; if he goes to the polls in this sweet spot he could wound that side of the spectrum for a decade at least, however if he doesn't go this year he runs the risk of entering Brown town a la 2007-2010.

I don't think Burnham has been particularly lacking a mandate? I'm very much getting a feeling that he would view an election as an unnecessary waste of time and is instead riding out the Parliamentary term by attempting to do as much visible stuff as possible to help win another 5 year term. Plus any election is almost certain to lose him a large amount of Labour MPs even if he may well still win a government, I can't see him wanting to go to a less strong party until he's forced to in 2029.

I also don't think with Galloway standing that this is less of a close race between Labour and the Greens, both left-wing parties and Reform make better cases to different parts of the coalitions Galloway has gathered before, plus he offers no narrative better served by the major parties.

Labour win but narrowly I think, with Greens working overtime to show they are still viable in inner London seats.

21 minutes ago, Iz様 🌟 said:

I don't think Burnham has been particularly lacking a mandate? I'm very much getting a feeling that he would view an election as an unnecessary waste of time and is instead riding out the Parliamentary term by attempting to do as much visible stuff as possible to help win another 5 year term. Plus any election is almost certain to lose him a large amount of Labour MPs even if he may well still win a government, I can't see him wanting to go to a less strong party until he's forced to in 2029.

Andy Burnham didn't run in the General Election in 2024, yet is now leading the party that was elected under a manifesto he didn't stand for, and many of his current policy goals could go against what was written in that manifesto. If he doesn't go to the country by the end of the year, I can see his popularity & Labour's tanking come the start of 2027, and a Tory majority becomes realistic by 2029. If he goes to the country this year, he undoubtedly will lose seats, and possibly may have to govern with a Lib Dem minority government, but I think he'll judge it to be worth it if he can cripple the Tories for a generation and destroy Reform for good. Plus he can frame it as doing what the Tories were too cowardly to do in the last parliament by going to the country after changing Prime Minister.

43 minutes ago, Brett-Butler said:

Andy Burnham didn't run in the General Election in 2024, yet is now leading the party that was elected under a manifesto he didn't stand for, and many of his current policy goals could go against what was written in that manifesto. If he doesn't go to the country by the end of the year, I can see his popularity & Labour's tanking come the start of 2027, and a Tory majority becomes realistic by 2029. If he goes to the country this year, he undoubtedly will lose seats, and possibly may have to govern with a Lib Dem minority government, but I think he'll judge it to be worth it if he can cripple the Tories for a generation and destroy Reform for good. Plus he can frame it as doing what the Tories were too cowardly to do in the last parliament by going to the country after changing Prime Minister.

First part is all very true, but arguably this benefits him, he is essentially free to implement his platform and the commentary could well be that Starmer's popularity doing what it did was a rejection by the public of that manifesto. An election would force conversation about his concrete plans for the remainder of his premiership, of course not necessarily a bad thing, but it sets him up to face Starmer's fate even if he wins. The polls even with his bounce are margin of error to a hung parliament and are almost guaranteed, even with Reform scandals to give them a fair number of MPs. It seems like a huge strategic mistake in the same way the 2017 election was a mistake.

The 'mandate' has always been pretty vibes based when we're dealing with a Prime Minister who has not faced the public in an election, which is why I said he doesn't seem to have a problem with mandate, as he was drafted in to replace an unpopular leader and has been relatively popular so far, it follows that more than average among the public aren't unhappy with this change. It's a problem once the commentariat decide it's a problem. Which isn't to say that it won't come up, but so far Burnham seems to have followed a strategy of giving the commentariat other issues to discuss, and if he continues to do that, he can certainly get away with at least a couple more years of it, as long as he doesn't directly back out of it like Brown did. 2028 or 2029 still seems most likely as far as I'm concerned, though it will come up from time to time. Even if he wins this by-election.

Easy win for Labour, can't see the Greens being anywhere near as I'd be shocked if Polanski isn't ousted as the leader by the end of the year.

Can't see whhy Labour would call a general election by the end of the year. Would be an incredibly dumb thing to do imo, don't know why you'd purposely lose your massive majority in the midst of another bout of infltation incoming. Surely you just try and ride this one out and hope America stop the war.

Yeh would be a strange decision for Burnham to chose to go to the public with his majority. The only think which makes it feesible is that he was in Browns cabinet so maybe thinking about that legacy. But there strangely isn’t much demand for a new mandate. The press seem to pick and chose who should have to do this. Def think it should be written into law that any new PM should have to seek a mandate.

Wait until you see, the economy will totally crash now in the next two years and it’ll be all Labours fault as usual.