Also I guess Restore will stand a candidate too - and eat into his vote

I can’t see any party other than the Tories beating Farage in this. The Tories won 72% in 2019, and Reform/Conservatives won a combined 74% in 2024. Unless there’s been massive demographic change since then, or Labour have an unprecedented Burnham Bounce, it’ll be one or the other.

The seat at the last election

Reform = 46.2%
Conservative = 27.9%
Labour = 16.2%
Lib Dems = 4.4%
Green = 4.2%
Independent - 0.7%
UKIP = 0.3%
Climate = 0.1%
Heritage = 0.1%

Majority of 8,405 for Farage.

Yeah i doubt Restore would win, but would be handy if Reform lost a couple 1000 votes to them

Edited July 7Jul 7 by ElectroBoy

i actually want to see green party winning this because it will be the worst outcome for reform skskskks

Restore apparently not standing, at least not in this one.

If Clacton is contested, then it'll be a fantastic choice between Conservatives, Reform and any other right-wing nutter but that's what this seat is, so whatever.

Would be funny if it ended up being just Farage vs Binface 🤣

It would feel very British, if Farage was ousted by someone like Binface 🤣

Tories not fielding a candidate either (from bbc)

Leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch has just spoken to broadcasters, accusing Nigel Farage of "having a hissy fit".

She says Farage is calling a "fake by-election to run away from a standards investigation".

She says the Conservatives will stand a candidate in the "real by-election" which she says will come at a later date after a standards investigation has taken place.

She calls Farage's announcement today a "gimmick", accusing him of "running away from scrutiny".

Edited July 7Jul 7 by ElectroBoy

Labour also not fielding a candidate. (from bbc website)

A Labour Party spokesperson says: “Nigel Farage is engulfed in a sleaze scandal and he’s desperately trying to change the subject.

"It’s pathetic, and the Labour Party is not going to indulge it. Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, has decided not to stand a candidate in this circus.

"Instead, Labour will remain focused on delivering for working people and holding Reform to account.

"Farage should let the parliamentary investigation into his finances run its course and face the consequences."

Edited July 7Jul 7 by ElectroBoy

Current odds for the by-election

Reform = 1/7

Count Binface = 5/1

The others are listed, but seem irrelevant if they aren't fielding a candidate 

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/clacton-by-election?selectionName=reform

Edited July 8Jul 8 by ElectroBoy

Count Binface being elected would be amazing. Please be Farage Vs Binface with Farage losing

I don’t know. It feels unfair on those in Clacton to only have the choice of novelty candidates. Surely we’ll just end up with a second by election that Farage cannot stand in.

I mean they probably won't win, but Count Binface is surely on course to get his best ever vote share. Black Mirror's The Waldo Moment coming true x

On 07/07/2026 at 14:33, ElectroBoy said:

Also I guess Restore will stand a candidate too - and eat into his vote

If Farage loses and resigns then does that mean Restore merge with Reform again though?

5 hours ago, T Boy said:

I don’t know. It feels unfair on those in Clacton to only have the choice of novelty candidates. Surely we’ll just end up with a second by election that Farage cannot stand in.

If Count Binface wins and resigns soon afterwards, there is nothing to stop Farage standing again, apart from the embarrassment of losing in the first place.