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Christmas #1 82 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you think will be Christmas #1?

    • Kylie Minogue - XMAS
      42
    • Wham! - Last Christmas
      35
    • Together for Palestine - Lullaby
      2
    • None of the above (reply to thread to say which song)
      0
  2. 2. Who do you want to be Christmas #1?

    • Kylie Minogue - XMAS
      50
    • Wham! - Last Christmas
      3
    • Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You
      3
    • Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree
      6
    • Together for Palestine - Lullaby
      11
    • None of the above (reply to thread to say which song)
      6

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16 minutes ago, GreyAsh said:

The thing is, Kylie currently has a lead of 7000. And Wham! are currently getting 7000 a day. They didn’t significantly eat into her lead yesterday (250 I think) - basing this on what we know about both Sunday and Monday. As some of this 7000 is from Amazon, the most they will catch up by on Friday will be say 4000-5000.

So if Kylie can maintain her lead, she should be able to make Number 1. Today’s figure should be crucial though, as today is the one day that Wham! will significantly catch up as they will have weekend streaming added whereas Kylie won’t. I have a feeling that’s why the extended version was added yesterday, to make up for that.

And you know that Kylie’s team always has a way of pulling through at the last minute.

There’s still data missing for Sunday, the issue is Amazon Exclusives drop off in the week dramatically Kylie was 5 falling to 6 in last Monday’s update then fell to 16 by Friday…

Hopefully the promo is paying off and she won’t have that drastic streaming fall this week.

Edited by Mr. C. Joel

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Think Kylie.

Want Brenda haha. For now I just want a #3 position for her, which is still proving elusive.

Think Wham, want Feliz Navidad but that's never going to happen 😁

15 minutes ago, jayson1982 said:

Isn't some of the streaming for weekend already included in Whams figures?

I think with Kylie’s loyal fanbase and the physicals and downloads Kylie will take the number one.

Yes. But today will include Sunday’s Spotify and Apple streams. Whereas Amazon‘s weekend streams are finished.

Want Kylie.

Voted think Kylie optimistically but also have been burnt too often before and worried about the Amazon tail off after the weekend. Hoping her fanbase will spring into action if it gets too close (if OCC provide daily updates that is). All those people that always buy 50k of her albums in the first week must be out there somewhere. Even accounting for fan multi-buying there are thousands of Kylie fans that I'm sure would do a 59p download if they were aware of it.

8 minutes ago, Mr. C. Joel said:

There’s still data missing for Sunday, the issue is Amazon Exclusives drop off in the week dramatically Kylie was 5 falling to 6 in last Monday’s update then fell to 16 by Friday…

Hopefully the promo is paying off and she won’t have that drastic streaming fall this week.

But also Kylie’s streams has increased this week she did 17k in just 3 days. She is now no 3 on Amazon chart this time last week she was about 14.

7 minutes ago, Mr. C. Joel said:

There’s still data missing for Sunday, the issue is Amazon Exclusives drop off in the week dramatically Kylie was 5 falling to 6 in last Monday’s update then fell to 16 by Friday…

My explanation covers all of this.

Kylie got 7000 in a day from streams and sales (well 6,700).

Wham! got (just under) 7000 in a day from streams and sales - this should cover one day from each platform (Spotify, Apple, Amazon, iTunes etc), albeit a different day from each platform.

Based on this, they are not catching up (significantly). They were 7000 behind on both Sunday and Monday. So despite being an Amazon exclusive, at present Kylie’s sales are NOT dropping off as expected. Therefore the only days they are likely to drop off by more than a few hundred are today (as explained) and Friday.

And as Kylie’s lead is currently what Wham! gets in a day - and on Friday they will have less than one day’s additional data added (they’ll have 1.5 days added and Kylie will have 1 day added) theoretically they won’t catch up.

3 minutes ago, GreyAsh said:

My explanation covers all of this.

Kylie got 7000 in a day from streams and sales (well 6,700).

Wham! got (just under) 7000 in a day from streams and sales - this should cover one day from each platform (Spotify, Apple, Amazon, iTunes etc), albeit a different day from each platform.

Based on this, they are not catching up (significantly). They were 7000 behind on both Sunday and Monday. So despite being an Amazon exclusive, at present Kylie’s sales are NOT dropping off as expected. Therefore the only days they are likely to drop off by more than a few hundred are today (as explained) and Friday.

And as Kylie’s lead is currently what Wham! gets in a day - and on Friday they will have less than one day’s additional data added (they’ll have 1.5 days added and Kylie will have 1 day added) theoretically they won’t catch up.

I see it sounds complicated but you understand it more than me.

14 minutes ago, jayson1982 said:

But also Kylie’s streams has increased this week she did 17k in just 3 days. She is now no 3 on Amazon chart this time last week she was about 14.

I always wonder how accurate the Amazon chart is but guess we can only go on what we can see.

Also does the difference in streams count on Amazon in terms of ad streams and premimum ones?

3 minutes ago, jayson1982 said:

I see it sounds complicated but you understand it more than me.

I have a background in maths and data and have spent years modelling chart progress over the week, particularly during the Christmas period. 🤣

That said, everyone complained because I said that the data last week showed that Kylie’s album was likely to end up at number 2. I didn’t take into consideration the fact that Kylie‘s team often adds random last-minute sales that they seem to pull from nowhere. 🤣

If Kylie is looking likely to not make Number 1 this week, I’m sure they will do the same.

4 minutes ago, Steve201 said:

I always wonder how accurate the Amazon chart is but guess we can only go on what we can see.

Also does the difference in streams count on Amazon in terms of ad streams and premimum ones?

Amazon actually does two charts, and I can’t work out the difference between them - other than one is clearly a summary of all the sales of a track whereas the other one will include a song several times in its chart. They clearly aren’t accurate, because for several weeks they excluded Last Christmas, and their sales chart seems to be excluding XMAS.

It’s also not very transparent because they don’t say what period of time they cover.

I think all of Amazon is premium, because regardless of whether you have a prime account (where you can’t select what you want to play) or an Amazon Music account (where you have full flexibility) your account is not free, and you don’t get ads.

That’s why Exclusives do so well: you can skip them, but you can’t control whether or not they are played.

2 minutes ago, GreyAsh said:

I have a background in maths and data and have spent years modelling chart progress over the week, particularly during the Christmas period. 🤣

That said, everyone complained because I said that the data last week showed that Kylie’s album was likely to end up at number 2. I didn’t take into consideration the fact that Kylie‘s team often adds random last-minute sales that they seem to pull from nowhere. 🤣

If Kylie is looking likely to not make Number 1 this week, I’m sure they will do the same.

Don't underestimate Kylie and us fans 😆 Just brought the downloads on her site and 4 copies of her cd on Amazon for stocking fillers 😅

1 minute ago, jayson1982 said:

Don't underestimate Kylie and us fans 😆 Just brought the downloads on her site and 4 copies of her cd on Amazon for stocking fillers 😅

Exactly. Tbf what I said was ‘Unless Kylie’s Team have something up their sleeve…’ and they did.

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head though. So many people say ‘Don’t underestimate Kylie fans’ but it is just as much Kylie and her team that are responsible for her success.

6 minutes ago, jayson1982 said:

Don't underestimate Kylie and us fans 😆 Just brought the downloads on her site and 4 copies of her cd on Amazon for stocking fillers 😅

I'd be very disappointed i don't have a cd player 🤣

Just now, 777666jason said:

I'd be very disappointed i don't have a cd player 🤣

Well, they are not for you anyway.

Want XMAS to be #1 but I've got a nasty feeling Whamageddon will strike at the last minute.

You can still get odds of 2/1 on Kylie being Christmas number 1. Wham are odds on favourites with all bookmakers with some only offering odds of 1/6.

If you are convinced that Kylie is going to be number one you can double your money.

Edited by britpop 1

1 hour ago, Mangø said:

Want XMAS to be #1 but I've got a nasty feeling Whamageddon will strike at the last minute.

Every time I hear Wham! this week in public, or hear anyone playing it anywhere, I'm giving XMAS another play on Amazon to offset it 🤣

Now we have the acapella available, maybe we'll get the chorus only mix next for cheerleaders to use around their own chants.

I really want a massive beefed up dance mix or something I feel like we deserve that 😆

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