1 hour ago, Paramore said:

The cutoff for t100 was 425k approx last year. Will probably be significantly lower this year if 50 haven’t met that by September

When you get lower down streaming charts, everything gets bunched up a LOT more. So there's loads of songs that don't have to "sell" that much in 4 months to make the threshold (also a few Christmas songs are almost guaranteed to get in which will make the threshold higher).

Anything that's selling consistently that's at two-thirds of 420k (280k I think) will probably make it by the end of the year.

The better metric to predict by would I think be whether the top 100 has all made 280,000 by the end of August, which it already has. So on that basis I think this year will beat last year.

Not expecting any new entries this week but could see Dai Dai potentially sneaking in and knocking Dakota out.

It hasn’t been a very exciting year for the singles chart but it’s shaping up to be an incredibly tight battle for the year end #1. Just as I think one song has it wrapped up the other comes back. At one point “Man I Need” was doing almost the same weekly numbers as “Rein Me In” and looked safe, but then the latter pulled away very strongly in weekly sales and looked like it was going to close the gap very quickly. Now they’ve narrowed again. “Rein Me In” did 4.5k more this week and the overall gap is 81k with (I think?) 19 weeks left. I really can’t call it.

Week 34:

1	1	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	1,657,000	2,760,000
2	2	Sam Fender and Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	1,576,000	2,260,000
3	3	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,039,000	3,220,000
4	4	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	1,024,000	1,630,000
5	5	Dave featuring Tems	Raindance	992,000	1,230,000
6	6	Olivia Dean	So Easy (To Fall In Love)	930,000	1,310,000
7	7	Bella Kay	Iloveitiloveitiloveit	910,000
8	8	Zara Larsson	Lush Life	880,000	3,920,000
9	9	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	875,000	2,210,000
10	10	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	855,000	1,600,000
11	11	PinkPantheress	Stateside	773,000	900,000
12	12	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	748,000	1,520,000
13	13	Djo	End Of Beginning	741,000	1,920,000
14	14	Tame Impala	Dracula	723,000	860,000
15	15	Sombr	Homewrecker	709,000
16	16	Bruno Mars	I Just Might	692,000
17	17	Sombr	12 To 12	676,000	1,200,000
18	18	Zara Larsson	Midnight Sun	663,000	760,000
19	19	Sienna Spiro	Die On This Hill	638,000	810,000
20	20	Harry Styles	American Girls	621,000
21	21	Alex Warren	Fever Dream	619,000
22	22	Michael Jackson	Billie Jean	603,000	4,120,000
23	23	Ella Langley	Choosin' Texas	602,000	640,000
24	24	The Killers	Mr Brightside	581,000	7,380,000
25	25	Taylor Swift	Opalite	571,000	980,000
26	26	Dominic Fike	Babydoll	566,000	1,310,000
27	28	Sombr	Back To Friends	551,000	1,460,000
28	27	Harry Styles	Aperture	547,000
29	29	Disco Lines and Tinashe	No Broke Boys	546,000	1,270,000
30	30	Milky	Just The Way You Are	524,000	630,000
31	31	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	507,000	4,440,000
32	32	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	503,000	5,060,000
33	34	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	492,000	3,420,000
34	33	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	492,000	1,300,000
35	35	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	488,000	1,630,000
36	36	Olivia Rodrigo	Drop Dead	488,000
37	37	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	475,000	2,280,000
38	38	Dominic Fike	White Keys	474,000	480,000
39	41	Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj	Beauty And A Beat	467,000	1,710,000
40	39	Justin Bieber	Daisies	465,000	970,000
50	51	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	391,000	3,640,000
52	56	ANOTR featuring 54 Ultra	Talk To You	389,000
53	60	Prospa & Cloonee	Free Your Mind	384,000
65	74	Olivia Rodrigo	The Cure	353,000
67	73	Malcolm Todd	Earrings	350,000	380,000
74	84	Ariana Grande	Hate That I Made You Love Me	344,000
92	93	Chemical Brothers	Go	316,000	750,000

34 minutes ago, Julian_ said:

Week 34:

1	1	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	1,657,000	2,760,000
2	2	Sam Fender and Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	1,576,000	2,260,000
3	3	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,039,000	3,220,000
4	4	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	1,024,000	1,630,000
5	5	Dave featuring Tems	Raindance	992,000	1,230,000
6	6	Olivia Dean	So Easy (To Fall In Love)	930,000	1,310,000
7	7	Bella Kay	Iloveitiloveitiloveit	910,000
8	8	Zara Larsson	Lush Life	880,000	3,920,000
9	9	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	875,000	2,210,000
10	10	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	855,000	1,600,000
11	11	PinkPantheress	Stateside	773,000	900,000
12	12	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	748,000	1,520,000
13	13	Djo	End Of Beginning	741,000	1,920,000
14	14	Tame Impala	Dracula	723,000	860,000
15	15	Sombr	Homewrecker	709,000
16	16	Bruno Mars	I Just Might	692,000
17	17	Sombr	12 To 12	676,000	1,200,000
18	18	Zara Larsson	Midnight Sun	663,000	760,000
19	19	Sienna Spiro	Die On This Hill	638,000	810,000
20	20	Harry Styles	American Girls	621,000
21	21	Alex Warren	Fever Dream	619,000
22	22	Michael Jackson	Billie Jean	603,000	4,120,000
23	23	Ella Langley	Choosin' Texas	602,000	640,000
24	24	The Killers	Mr Brightside	581,000	7,380,000
25	25	Taylor Swift	Opalite	571,000	980,000
26	26	Dominic Fike	Babydoll	566,000	1,310,000
27	28	Sombr	Back To Friends	551,000	1,460,000
28	27	Harry Styles	Aperture	547,000
29	29	Disco Lines and Tinashe	No Broke Boys	546,000	1,270,000
30	30	Milky	Just The Way You Are	524,000	630,000
31	31	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	507,000	4,440,000
32	32	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	503,000	5,060,000
33	34	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	492,000	3,420,000
34	33	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	492,000	1,300,000
35	35	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	488,000	1,630,000
36	36	Olivia Rodrigo	Drop Dead	488,000
37	37	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	475,000	2,280,000
38	38	Dominic Fike	White Keys	474,000	480,000
39	41	Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj	Beauty And A Beat	467,000	1,710,000
40	39	Justin Bieber	Daisies	465,000	970,000
50	51	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	391,000	3,640,000
52	56	ANOTR featuring 54 Ultra	Talk To You	389,000
53	60	Prospa & Cloonee	Free Your Mind	384,000
65	74	Olivia Rodrigo	The Cure	353,000
67	73	Malcolm Todd	Earrings	350,000	380,000
74	84	Ariana Grande	Hate That I Made You Love Me	344,000
92	93	Chemical Brothers	Go	316,000	750,000

The One that got away?

14 minutes ago, Piethro said:

The One that got away?

It will be mentioned in the update if it ever enters.

So Bella Kay is looking to score the highest 2026 release

I reckon that "Choosin' Texas" will overtake "Midnight Sun" within the next 2-3 months.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by DanielCarey