Posted June 22, 200817 yr EXCLUSIVE: Election Result: Cons 392... Labour 189... Lib Dems 34 Biggest upset since '31 5 ministers lose seats Huge 134 Tory majority. Gordon Brown is heading for Labour's biggest general election upset in 77 YEARS. David Cameron's Tories are set to romp home with a landslide 134 overall majority. And FIVE Cabinet ministers - Jack Straw, Jacqui Smith, Ruth Kelly, John Denham and John Hutton - would lose their seats. The polls add up to the most disastrous reversal of Labour's fortunes since the 1931 election. The predictions come from Electoral Calculus, Britain's most sophisticated polling system. Its boss, City whizkid Martin Baxter, said: "I've never seen such a sudden turnaround." He calculates the Tories will get 392 MPs, Labour 189 and Lib Dems 34. Mr Baxter - whose predictions were just one seat out at Labour's 1997 landslide victory - said: "We have a saying in the City that the trend is your friend. "And the trend is now very much David Cameron's friend." Mr Brown even faces the humiliation of losing his top two aides, Basildon's Angela Smith and Dudley North's Ian Austin. Olympics minister Tessa Jowell, deputy leadership contender Jon Cruddas and former Home Secretary Charles Clarke would also be out. The Electoral Calculus figures will dampen the celebrations as Mr Brown marks a year in Downing Street. Mr Baxter based his calculations on national opinion polls from April to June. His mathematical model also takes in boundary changes, the personal appeal of MPs and the strength of local party organisations. Mr Brown has told friends the next election - to be held in 2010 at the latest - will be his last if he wins. He plans to give his successor at least a year to prepare for the following one. Source: Sunday People Is this a likely scenario? Can Labour prevent a huge disaster at the next election?
June 22, 200817 yr The Conservatives will probably win, but I doubt it will be by that big a margin, I think a lot of lifelong Labour voters who are angered by them atm will return at election time, which will soften the blow. As for the last bit, if Labour do somehow scrape home at the election, I doubt they would let Brown fulfil anywhere near a full term.
June 22, 200817 yr The day after the last election I predicted that there would be a hung parliament at the next election. I still haven't changed my mind.
June 22, 200817 yr The day after the last election I predicted that there would be a hung parliament at the next election. I still haven't changed my mind. No way, the Tories will have a big majority, 100+.
June 22, 200817 yr Well we won't find out until 2010, Brown will want to hang on as long as possible after knocking on Tony's door for 10 years.
June 23, 200817 yr I dont really see any possible way that Brown could personally pull back popularity. I really think this the Conservatives election to lose... if Cameron stuffs up big time over the next two years, maybe Labour have a shot, but otherwise I dont see it.
June 24, 200817 yr And with the economy going down the toilet...... I think it does all depend on whether he has enough time left for any economic upturn to kick in. Whilst we all like to think we vote on principles, most of us don't. We vote with our pockets. If people are struggling financially in 2010, Brown will get slaughtered at the polls. Simple as. -_-
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