What own goal? :rolleyes: I told my GP yesterday that I'm worried about all these benefit reforms and that anyway I'll just kill myself if they leave me penniless and he told me not to worry as that won't happen. He said a GP's word counts for a lot. ;)

You've read my posts here and elsewhere. You will have noticed that I generally favour the underdog and am pretty tolerant of people claiming benefits. But I struggle to understand how someone who seems to invite abuse on internet forums can be considered incapable of doing any kind of work. I can accept that someone suffering from depression might have been unable to work when that meant turning up at a workplace every day. However I find it rather harder to accept that there are no jobs which you could do using a computer from home.

 

Perhaps there are days when you are better able to do that sort of work than others. If so, the benefits system should reflect that. But it seems that the system is still geared towards the idea that working for a living necessarily means having to go to a workplace and doesn't allow for the number of jobs that people can now do without leaving their home.

Anyway this thread isn't about me though other posters seem to have turned it that way. NB. it wasn't me.

 

Back on topic then. What effect does anyone think the three debates will have on the polls and more importantly the final result?

 

I think the debates might do the LibDems a fair bit of good

 

Wrong. That shows a 6% swing in the marginal seats. That would give them 75 gains from Labour. Even if they also took all the Lib Dem and Nationalist seats requiring a swing from the incumbent of 6% or lower (including those where they start third) that gives them 111 gains which leaves them just short of a majority.

I can't speak for Wales, but the SNP steal directly from the Labour demographic. They atypical working class, not very well educated and the scum of Scotland all are attracted to the SNP by their Independence pledge. Up north its perfectly ok to discriminate against the English :rolleyes: -_- The students who voted SNP were attracted from all over by other policies and are more likely to vote SNP/LibDem than Tory.

 

 

Cameron can do whatever the f*** he wants, Nobody votes that way up here. I'm more likely to win the Euromillions 100weeks in a row than he is to get more than 5seats in Scotland. I'd be surprised if they got 3 tbh.

^ Yet another sign that the Tories don't have a clue what the hell they're doing. They've cited moving people off Incapacity Benefit as one of their key ways of funding the money needed to prevent a National Insurance rise, but it simply doesn't make sense. There aren't enough jobs to give to everyone who is currently considered healthy, so how do they think there's suddenly going to be 2.5 million jobs to cover those people on IB? Those people will simply be moved to unemployment benefit, so it won't save the State any money.

 

i think you are spot on danny :)

Those people will simply be moved to unemployment benefit, so it won't save the State any money.

 

 

It will as the new Employment And Support Allowance is less than IB so those declared fit will get less money! Labour are doing exactly the same. It's much harder for new claimants to be declared unfit for work and existing IB claimants will start to be moved across to ESA from October. So it's happening whether Cameron gets in or not!

It will as the new Employment And Support Allowance is less than IB so those declared fit will get less money! Labour are doing exactly the same. It's much harder for new claimants to be declared unfit for work and existing IB claimants will start to be moved across to ESA from October. So it's happening whether Cameron gets in or not!

 

For every genuine case there is probably at least 5 fraudulent cases and cases of people milking the system, if genuine cases slip through the net blame the fraudsters who have bought about the suspicion that there is about IB claimants.

 

 

The Independent made a valid point today - the Lib Dems stand to gain the most from the public debate because it's perhaps the only real occasion where they're going to receive equal "billing" with the Tories and Labour.

I know many people who are already well aware of what the Tories and Labour are standing for, and even UKIP and the BNP - but few who really know what the Lib Dem's actual policies are.

 

I imagine Brown could suffer - he's got the hardest job. Unlike Cameron and Clegg, he's not just got to defend his future proposals but also the added challenge of defending his current incumbency. Notice tonight, on at least one occasion I can remember, Cameron simply threw back in Brown's face "why haven't you done all this already?"

i didnt see the debate.... i hear that cameron was sidestepping issues on spending cuts regarding the police, schools and hospitals.

Clegg won. Pity he has no chance of being PM though. :rolleyes: I agree with what one commentator on Sky News said earlier this morning. Cameron and Brown should really have insisted they'd only do these debates without Clegg.

Edited April 16, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Clegg won. Pity he has no chance of being PM though. :rolleyes: I agree with what one commentator on Sky News said earlier this morning. Cameron and Brown should really have insisted they'd only do these debates without Clegg.

 

If the polls stay as they are which I don't believe they will as I am still convinced there will be a large-ish Tory majority then it is right having Clegg there as Lib Dems will hold major cabinet posts in the hung parliament if there is one, I read the other day in one of the papers that Lib Dems want chancellor and home secretary in any hung parliament so it is right that we hear their views.

 

If anything I think Griffin should have been allowed in on the debates, much as my views on Griffin are well documented there is going to be a massive protest vote towards BNP at this election so Griffin's views on general subjects are relevant

Edited April 16, 201015 yr by B.A Baracus

If anything I think Griffin should have been allowed in on the debates, much as my views on Griffin are well documented there is going to be a massive protest vote towards BNP at this election so Griffin's views on general subjects are relevant

 

Why? If you include the BNP, then you also have to include the Greens and UKIP.

Why? If you include the BNP, then you also have to include the Greens and UKIP.

 

The greens and UKIP never do anything outside of Euro elections, if this was a Euro election I would include them too.

 

Also Greens and UKIP are single issue parties on issues that have little relevance in a general election (environment and Europe) whereas immigration will be the 2nd biggest issue this election after economy maybe even the biggest so I think given the importance of immigration in this election and the fact that the BNP could get 5-10% of the vote IMHO that Griffin taking part in the debates is a relevant matter

 

If the polls stay as they are which I don't believe they will as I am still convinced there will be a large-ish Tory majority then it is right having Clegg there as Lib Dems will hold major cabinet posts in the hung parliament if there is one, I read the other day in one of the papers that Lib Dems want chancellor and home secretary in any hung parliament so it is right that we hear their views.

 

If anything I think Griffin should have been allowed in on the debates, much as my views on Griffin are well documented there is going to be a massive protest vote towards BNP at this election so Griffin's views on general subjects are relevant

 

Actually my wife said just before it started "Why just the three of them? Why isn't Nick Griffin there?" I think he should have been there too. Do you think they'll get a seat then BA? Sky were saying Nick seems to have given up on Barking, just down the road from us, already. He's hardly been out campaigning at all.

Edited April 16, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

I'd say UKIP or the Greens should be included before the BNP as those two parties have a much bigger following, even if their issues are more EU-centric.

Actually my wife said just before it started "Why just the three of them? Why isn't Nick Griffin there?" I think he should have been there too. Do you think they'll get a seat then BA? Sky were saying Nick seems to have given up on Barking, just down the road from us, already. He's hardly been out campaigning at all.

 

If they do get a seat most likely it would be somewhere like Burnley or Bradford but I think the BNP will make the difference in a lot of marginals, many seats will be won by smallish majorities by the big 3 parties and the BNP protest vote will make a huge difference in many seats as to who the winner is I think.

 

I would have no interest in voting BNP but I know a sizeable number that are considering voting BNP at this election and they are professionals in IT and business not bovver booted skinheads so the BNP should not be under estimated.

 

I think given the importance of immigration in this election and the possible size of the BNP protest vote that Griffin should be in the debates

Edited April 16, 201015 yr by B.A Baracus

Mike Smithson on Political Betting.com:

 

The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices - out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 - and a tightening in the NOM price.

 

This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely - but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually help the Tories?

 

True an increasing LD share should make it much harder for the Tories to pick up the ten seats from Clegg’s party that they had been hoping for.

 

True an increasing LD share might make it harder for the Tories to make the hoped-for headway in three-way marginals. You can see Labour supporters even in seats that they hold going yellow to stop the blues

 

But also true a resurgent Lib Dem party could seriously hurt Labour, in its effort to stop the Tories in LAB-CON marginals. For in these seats Labour have been looking to Lib Dem tactical voters to help them hang on. On top of that there is the real danger that yellow tactical voters at previous elections might return to the allegiance further eating into the Labour vote .

 

The worry for Labour is that Clegg’s performance might lead to them losing more key marginals.

 

On a personal note it was a fantastic experience being there in the Manchester studios while all this was taking place and being part of the post-debate discussion on the Dimbleby programme afterwards. Thank you ITV. It was a memorable evening and one which might have a big impact on the outcome.

Mike Smithson on Political Betting.com:

 

The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices - out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 - and a tightening in the NOM price.

 

This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely - but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually help the Tories?

 

True an increasing LD share should make it much harder for the Tories to pick up the ten seats from Clegg’s party that they had been hoping for.

 

True an increasing LD share might make it harder for the Tories to make the hoped-for headway in three-way marginals. You can see Labour supporters even in seats that they hold going yellow to stop the blues

 

But also true a resurgent Lib Dem party could seriously hurt Labour, in its effort to stop the Tories in LAB-CON marginals. For in these seats Labour have been looking to Lib Dem tactical voters to help them hang on. On top of that there is the real danger that yellow tactical voters at previous elections might return to the allegiance further eating into the Labour vote .

 

The worry for Labour is that Clegg’s performance might lead to them losing more key marginals.

 

On a personal note it was a fantastic experience being there in the Manchester studios while all this was taking place and being part of the post-debate discussion on the Dimbleby programme afterwards. Thank you ITV. It was a memorable evening and one which might have a big impact on the outcome.

 

Interesting

 

I still think Cameron will get in and get in quite comfortably, a majority of around 60

I'd say UKIP or the Greens should be included before the BNP as those two parties have a much bigger following, even if their issues are more EU-centric.

 

Environment and Europe though will feature in very few people's Top 10 election issues so I think that Green and UKIP will do a lot worse than the BNP in the general election.

 

I don't think the issues that UKIP and greens are about are relevant enough to justify them in the tv debates tbh whereas immigration is maybe THE major issue this election along with crime and taxation

i wouldnt have a problem with the bnp, greens and ukip debating alongside the big three... it might put people off using them as a protest vote!

Interesting

 

I still think Cameron will get in and get in quite comfortably, a majority of around 60

 

 

I'll say 48 majority and then a 100+ in 2014/5.