My (slightly eccentric) predictions are as follows:

1. Labour will comfortably win the "Old and Sad" by-election
2. Andrew Lansley will become the first member of the Cabinet to go (apart from Laws); the bulk of his propsed NHS reforms will then be scrapped
3. The Coalition will suffer its first House of Commons defeat on an EU-related matter
4. A nationwide "spring of discontent" with violent protests from late March fuelled by the VAT rise, transport and petrol costs booming and job losses while bankers claim their bonuses in full
5. Labour make big gains in the local elections, polling about 44%, to the Tories' 32% and the Lib Dems collapsing to 7%, while UKIP and the Greens do extremely well.
6. Labour regain power in Scotland as a minority government, and they form a majority government in Wales
7. The AV referendum returns a narrow "Yes" result
8. Ken Clarke's prison reforms to pass in the Commons despite a massive rebellion on the Tory backbenches
9. In early autumn, David Davis forms the breakaway Mainstream Conservative Party, pledging repatriation of power from the EU, much tougher policies on crime and tougher line on immigration; taking 50 current Tory MPs including Liam Fox, John Redwood and Nadine Dorries. The Coalition consequently loses its majority
10. By the end of the year, the Coalition are regularly losing votes in the Commons due to their lack of a majority, made worse by the majority of Lib Dem backbenchers frequently rebelling. All the talk is of the Mainstream Tories (who have agreed an electoral pact with UKIP) collaborating with Labour and minority parties to pass a motion of no confidence in the Coalition in the new year
11. Opinion polls at the end of the year: Labour 40%; Mainstream Tories 27%; Coalition Tories 15%; Lib Dems 5%; Others 13%

My (slightly eccentric) predictions are as follows:

1. Labour will comfortably win the "Old and Sad" by-election
2. Andrew Lansley will become the first member of the Cabinet to go (apart from Laws); the bulk of his propsed NHS reforms will then be scrapped
3. The Coalition will suffer its first House of Commons defeat on an EU-related matter
4. A nationwide "spring of discontent" with violent protests from late March fuelled by the VAT rise, transport and petrol costs booming and job losses while bankers claim their bonuses in full
5. Labour make big gains in the local elections, polling about 44%, to the Tories' 32% and the Lib Dems collapsing to 7%, while UKIP and the Greens do extremely well.
6. Labour regain power in Scotland as a minority government, and they form a majority government in Wales
7. The AV referendum returns a narrow "Yes" result
8. Ken Clarke's prison reforms to pass in the Commons despite a massive rebellion on the Tory backbenches
9. In early autumn, David Davis forms the breakaway Mainstream Conservative Party, pledging repatriation of power from the EU, much tougher policies on crime and tougher line on immigration; taking 50 current Tory MPs including Liam Fox, John Redwood and Nadine Dorries. The Coalition consequently loses its majority
10. By the end of the year, the Coalition are regularly losing votes in the Commons due to their lack of a majority, made worse by the majority of Lib Dem backbenchers frequently rebelling. All the talk is of the Mainstream Tories (who have agreed an electoral pact with UKIP) collaborating with Labour and minority parties to pass a motion of no confidence in the Coalition in the new year
11. Opinion polls at the end of the year: Labour 40%; Mainstream Tories 27%; Coalition Tories 15%; Lib Dems 5%; Others 13%

Oh lord, the last three would be a true sight to see (a proper right-wing split of the sort which has punished Labour since the Alliance would be my DREAM come true) but I simply can't see it happening unless we have Labour topping 50% by September and Cameron forcing through something absolutely abhorrent to the right-wingers in the party (on a par with tuition fees for the Lib Dems). In any case, I could still see Coalition Tories more popular than Mainstream Tories, or at least on level pegging despite the cuts, because ultimately - if the public didn't like the 'reformed' Conservatives enough, would so many be so willing to return to an openly nasty party?

I'm not sure if i can see Labour wrestling the power away from Salmond. It'll all come down to the SNP manifesto [which i haven't seen yet] and whether it contains another giant killer like scrapping the graduate endowment fee and prescription charges.

Oh lord, the last three would be a true sight to see (a proper right-wing split of the sort which has punished Labour since the Alliance would be my DREAM come true) but I simply can't see it happening unless we have Labour topping 50% by September and Cameron forcing through something absolutely abhorrent to the right-wingers in the party (on a par with tuition fees for the Lib Dems). In any case, I could still see Coalition Tories more popular than Mainstream Tories, or at least on level pegging despite the cuts, because ultimately - if the public didn't like the 'reformed' Conservatives enough, would so many be so willing to return to an openly nasty party?

 

Haha, well, I probably got a bit carried away towards the end of my predictions - but I really do think now that the Tory Right will be what destroys the Coalition, rather than the Lib Dems. Even if they don't form a breakaway party, I can definitely see them causing some major disruption this year, including possibly a coup against Cameron - they absolutely DETEST him for the way he, in their eyes, 'disrespected' veteran MPs during the expenses scandal, they're going crazy over what they see as his pandering to the EU, they're outraged that some of his closest confidantes are openly talking about an electoral pact with the Lib Dems, and, perhaps most of all, they're furious at Ken Clarke's (relatively modest) attempts to cut prison numbers. There was a report in the Independent the other day which showed more than 70 Tory MPs had already rebelled during this Parliament (the highest rate of rebellion on government benches since WW2), mostly on Europe-related issues - there's more than enough unhappy Tories to bring about the demise of the Coalition, even if the Lib Dems are happy to remain as Osborne's useful idiots.

 

IF the Tory breakaway party did happen, I do think they'd have an initially strong showing in the polls purely because I think the public are going to be in such an anti-establishment mood before long that ANY new party with a high profile would do well, especially one which superficially were spouting populist lines on crime and Europe. I'd expect them to fade when their policies came under scrutiny in an election, though.

[*]The Coalition will suffer its first House of Commons defeat on an EU-related matter

 

And it seems like this prediction might well come true, with news that Tory rebels and Labour are plotting with eachother to vote down the Coalition's EU Bill next week:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...on-EU-Bill.html

And it seems like this prediction might well come true, with news that Tory rebels and Labour are plotting with eachother to vote down the Coalition's EU Bill next week:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...on-EU-Bill.html

I'm sure the Lib Dems would be perfectly happy to see this Bill defeated.

 

I doubt that rebel Tories will break away to form a new party. It's more likely (although still fairly unlikely) that some - probably no more than a dozen - would either resign the Tory whip and sit as independents or join UKIP.

:magic:

 

Brilliant stuff Danny.

 

 

Mainstream Tories, if it happened, would form a coalition with UKIP? Creating a battle between Coalition Tories and Coalition Tories.

I hope Labour dont get in power again. I hope all governments collapses and we get a dictator who is diplomatic

General election in Ireland in a few months, so I'm predicting a huge win for Fine Gael (christian democrats) and Labour (:cheer:). Sinn Fein will get a rather large protest vote (around 16%) :nocheer:

 

I'm also predicting David Norris for president of Ireland in the autumn. What a guy! :D

 

Can't predict anything for the UK, unfortunately. Not familiar enough with the political scene over there... :(

General election in Ireland in a few months, so I'm predicting a huge win for Fine Gael (christian democrats) and Labour (:cheer:). Sinn Fein will get a rather large protest vote (around 16%) :nocheer:

 

I'm also predicting David Norris for president of Ireland in the autumn. What a guy! :D

 

Can't predict anything for the UK, unfortunately. Not familiar enough with the political scene over there... :(

It certainly looks like Fianna Fail are going to get a real kicking in the election. When does Mary McAleese's term end?

I hope Labour dont get in power again. I hope all governments collapses and we get a dictator who is diplomatic

I assume you tried to say a democratic dictator, in which case there's no such thing. You seem to be suggesting that we go back to how things were before the Magna Carta, in the 12th century. Quite a proposal Shelli.

I hope Labour dont get in power again. I hope all governments collapses and we get a dictator who is diplomatic

 

And explain exactly how this would work?

It certainly looks like Fianna Fail are going to get a real kicking in the election. When does Mary McAleese's term end?

 

I think her term ends in October. I'll be studying in France then so I hope I can vote via post. :(

I think her term ends in October. I'll be studying in France then so I hope I can vote via post. :(

If it's the same as here you may need to appoint a proxy to vote on your behalf. Still, you've got plenty of time to do whatever you need to do.

In the words of The Kaiser Chiefs...

 

"I predict a riot".....

 

And, I'm not talking one of the relatively minor Student skirmishes, I'm talking full-on, "Poll-Tax"-style riots in Central London where EVERYBODY is gonna be on the streets and kicking off......

 

I really hope Direct Action affects the f**king Royal Wedding tbh...

I'm not sure if i can see Labour wrestling the power away from Salmond. It'll all come down to the SNP manifesto [which i haven't seen yet] and whether it contains another giant killer like scrapping the graduate endowment fee and prescription charges.

 

I'm pretty certain Labour will be the biggest party, personally. I think the SNP will get about as many votes as last time, but even a very modest swing from the Lib Dems to Labour would be enough to push Labour into first place.

 

I'd be interested to know if you think a coalition between Labour and the SNP is possible? That would make by FAR the most sense to me, considering they're both firmly on the centre-left on the economy and public services... obviously there's the issue of Scottish independence, but it might be possible for the SNP to just forget that until the following Scottish election, like Plaid Cymru have done by going into coalition with Labour in Wales. But I don't know how good relations are between Labour and the SNP...

 

Failing that, I guess Labour would have to form a minority government there (assuming they come first but don't get an overall majority), as obviously a coalition with the Tories is out of the question, and I think Labour would find it very hard to work with the Lib Dems again, considering many of their leading activists are happily parrotting the Clegg-Alexander misrepresentation of Labour's economic record ("the deficit is SO much worse than we thought during the election!", "Labour went on a massive spending binge" - despite the fact the Lib Dems wanted MORE spending during the recession!).

The Scottish LibDems and Scottish Labour are very separate from their counterparts down south. So i can't quite see that big a swing going from Lib to Lab. Plus, we have had a LibLab government in the past up here so it's not unlikely.

 

The SNP might hold on to a minority government, they won't ditch independence as a policy which is why we don't currently have a LibSNP government here.

 

 

LabSNP would be highly unpopular, as many SNP voters are former Labour voters who are fed up of or pissed off with Labour.

 

And the Torries are hated by everyone. A coalition with them is out of the question, there would be riots.

My (slightly eccentric) predictions are as follows:

[*]In early autumn, David Davis forms the breakaway Mainstream Conservative Party, pledging repatriation of power from the EU, much tougher policies on crime and tougher line on immigration; taking 50 current Tory MPs including Liam Fox, John Redwood and Nadine Dorries. The Coalition consequently loses its majority

 

Much as I'd love this to happen ... sadly it never would. The Conservatives, like $h!t, sticks together. They may have disagreements behind the scenes, and some do slip out occasionally, but on the whole ... they give a united front. This way they can continue to receive their nice fat backhanders from the rich, tax-evading backers. They'd be no use to any(rich)body as two parties.

 

Kath

Edited January 9, 201114 yr by Kathyp

Labour are between 40% and 45% in the polls; I can easily see 50% being tipped.

 

Oi, Danny, are you sure your expectations aren't a little less eccentric?!

Sheesh, you really do have it in for the Liberal Democrats don't you? Do you seriously think the majority of lifetime Lib Dem voters will hurry off to support Labour just because all of those first-timers and disenfranchised swingers who "agreed with Nick" last May probably have?

 

I for one will not.