Wow, thought i would have had a better chance than this :(

Contenders

 

7/1 Batidas: Agnes Obel 'Riverside'

 

Another good set of odds. Worst thing is that if 'Riverside' does do well, the pressure is then on to try and submit another equally strong track for BJSC XXXIV. :drama: At least I'm looking set to do better in this than the most recent UP5 where I finished 24th!!! :(

Male win - maybe.

Foreign language win - maybe.

Both together - SURELY NOT.

 

Is 'Natteravn' that cheap? I didn't really realise anyone had heard it til' the final thread of xxiii - but still, didn't think it would be that cheap?

Edited April 9, 201114 yr by ROBOT

Oh ROB, you're always ridiculous with your insistences that you don't stand a chance of winning. May I remind you of the time you predicted Roll Deep would finish ELEVENTH?

 

It's not really that cheap - it's like a far lesser version of the Baby It's Over scenario. A few people were interested in it.

Another good set of odds. Worst thing is that if 'Riverside' does do well, the pressure is then on to try and submit another equally strong track for BJSC XXXIV. :drama: At least I'm looking set to do better in this than the most recent UP5 where I finished 24th!!! :(

Tell me about it! I've been Top 3 in the last two UP contests and i am already preparing myself for the failure in UP6! :lol:

My set of odds to win.

 

1/55 Eledan: Gold Panda - Quitters Raga

I don't get those odds when they have the smaller number first. Does it mean you if you put £55 on it, you get £1 back? :unsure:

I don't get those odds when they have the smaller number first. Does it mean you if you put £55 on it, you get £1 back? :unsure:

You get £1 back along with your original bet.

You get £1 back along with your original bet.

 

So the first half is what you get 'on top' and the second half is your original bet? And then it can be increased in comparitive measures, ie. 1/55 to 2/110 ?

 

I don't get all this betting malarky, I'm underage :lol:

So the first half is what you get 'on top' and the second half is your original bet? And then it can be increased in comparitive measures, ie. 1/55 to 2/110 ?

 

I don't get all this betting malarky, I'm underage :lol:

Basically yeah. I used to have a quick guide to how odds work that I posted in these threads, I'll dig it out...

Guide to odds:

 

The number on the left is the amount of times a country might be expected to NOT qualify/win (depending on what odds you're offering) in relation to the number on the right. So, for example:

 

3/1 = For every three times that a country with these odds doesn't win/qualify, they will win/qualify once.

5/2 = For every five times that a country with these odds doesn't win/qualify, they will win/qualify twice.

2/3 = For every two times that a country with these odds doesn't win/qualify, they will win/qualify three times.

 

Odds that have a larger number on the right than the left indicate that there is a greater chance of the song qualifying/winning than not.

 

For odds that don't have 1 on the right, divide the number on the left by them to get their /1 value - so, for example, 5/2 is actually a clean way of saying 2.5/1, etc.

 

These can also be read as percentages - add the two numbers together and divide 100 by the resulting number. Then multiply the number you get by the number on the right and you will get the percentage chance of qualification/victory. So, for example:

 

10/3 = 13. 100 divided by 13 = 0.77. Multiplied by three you get 2.31. This song therefore has a 23% chance of victory/qualification.

 

For odds on likelihood of qualifying, take note that there are 14 qualifiers from each semi final. It therefore follows that at least 10 or so songs will have odds where they have a greater chance of qualifying than not, unless it is a very close/hard to call semi!

My entries lately has always been between 20/1 - 30/1 in the odds. I think that's a good place to be, but I'm allowing myself to hope for a top 10 this contest withouth having heard all of the entries. I wanna live can be somewhat compared to Zoe Badwi - Freefalling/Neon Hitch - Get over you/Elisabeth Carew - You'll never love me/September - Walk alone and they all did very well. Alice is nevertheless quite likely to give several people a good discovery which is a key ingredient to what this contest is all about!

Oh ROB, you're always ridiculous with your insistences that you don't stand a chance of winning. May I remind you of the time you predicted Roll Deep would finish ELEVENTH?

 

It's not really that cheap - it's like a far lesser version of the Baby It's Over scenario. A few people were interested in it.

LMAO, when I confirmed Roll Deep, I didn't even think it would make it through semis! :lol:

Thanks for that Tyron :)

Odds to qualify:

 

SF1

 

1/100 Lievant: Vanbot 'Make Me, Break Me'

1/50 People's Republic of Jester: Alexandra Stan 'Mr. Saxobeat'

1/33 FSR Rontvia: Brittany McDonald 'Strawberry Shake'

1/20 Caerfyrddia: Katzenjammer 'Lady Marlene'

1/10 Batidas: Agnes Obel 'Riverside'

1/8 Farahtyn: Ola 'All Over The World'

1/5 Ashton: Molly Sandén 'Det Är Inte Jag'

1/5 Tinnmark: Anna Abreu 'Hysteria'

2/7 Yuxhaaq: Kate Ryan 'LoveLife'

1/3 Dalisska: Austra 'Lose It'

1/2 Espen: Mylène Farmer 'Lonely Lisa'

1/2 Lotopialand: Andreas Wijk 'Like My Style'

Evens Aquafina: Maria Ilieva 'I Like'

Evens Bignia-Zaragovina: Marvin Priest 'Own This Club'

Evens N-Lazone: Sander van Doorn 'Love Is Darkness'

6/5 Unovia: Jolin Tsai 'Měirén jì'

3/2 Eledan: Gold Panda 'Quitters Raga'

3/2 New Caprica: Lita 'Let Go'

2/1 Ojnoj: Jason Reeves 'Sticks N Stones'

3/1 Isconia: Creep; Romy 'Days'

5/1 Xanaga: Asa 'Be My Man'

 

SF2

 

1/100 Hendinia: Rasmus Seebach 'Natteravn'

1/100 Kopečka: Vendela 'Punk Rock Song'

1/40 Torchwood: BC Jean 'I'll Survive You'

1/33 Greenfroze: Alice Svensson 'I Wanna Live'

1/20 Bare and Naked Gardens: Tiesto; Kay 'Work Hard, Play Hard'

1/10 Numayania: Morten Hampenberg & Alexander Brown; Stine Bramsen 'I Want You (To Want Me Back)'

1/8 Kluminican Republic: Kato; Ida Corr, Camille Jones & Johnson 'Sjus'

1/8 Lorikeet: Wolfette 'Waiting For The Explosion'

1/6 Kathaldazia: La Vuvuzela 'In Stereo'

1/4 Persephonia: Savage Skulls & Douster; Robyn 'Bad Gal'

1/3 Quotosibb: Parade 'Perfume'

1/2 Herzebania: Linda Pritchard 'Glorious'

5/6 Botanikka: Rai Knight 'Persistence'

Evens Frahliso: Goldy Locks 'Hands of the Wicked'

Evens Kylienips: Skylar Grey 'It's Raining Again'

5/3 UnoShake: Carrie Mac 'Til I See You Again'

3/2 FYR Vojvodina-on-the-Wold: Adam Tyler 'I Won't Let You Go'

2/1 Quintessa: Amber 'Above The Clouds'

7/2 Letland: DJ Lutique; Svetlana Loboda 'By Your Side'

10/1 Palmyra: Ryan Sheridan 'The Dreamer'

20/1 Zechonia: Shirley Manson 'The Hunger'

Another good set of odds. Worst thing is that if 'Riverside' does do well, the pressure is then on to try and submit another equally strong track for BJSC XXXIV. :drama: At least I'm looking set to do better in this than the most recent UP5 where I finished 24th!!! :(

 

You want to try following up two consecutive wins :lol: But I'm hopeful that this entry won't leave me with too much egg on my face, I feel like I've found another strong pop song personally.

You want to try following up two consecutive wins :lol: But I'm hopeful that this entry won't leave me with too much egg on my face, I feel like I've found another strong pop song personally.

 

I've not even started thinking about what I'd enter next time round in either this or Unknown Pleasures 6. :lol: In fact, they're supposed to be having a CD Swap coming soon and I've got a tracklist of 0 songs for that. :drama:

I've not even started thinking about what I'd enter next time round in either this or Unknown Pleasures 6. :lol: In fact, they're supposed to be having a CD Swap coming soon and I've got a tracklist of 0 songs for that. :drama:

 

We all have different ways of selecting our entries so I wouldn't worry. My way is to send the song riding the highest in my personal chart at the time of confirmation which isn't either a UK release or something that I feel to be similarly uninspired (i.e. a Melodifestivalen runner up/a #1 in every other country but without a UK release). My theory is that if I love it enough for it to be so high in my chart, hopefully other people will feel the same way.

OMG, Svetlana is flopping hard on her Valentine ass... :S

rai knight is botanikkas most creative entry :snif:

 

maybe i should have stick with my first choice.