June 21, 201114 yr If Greece leave the euro and then devalue then Ireland and Portugal will be under pressure to do the same, potentially setting off a vicious spiral as they all try to undercut each other. If Ireland leave the EU, who will trust them in the future? Ireland benefitted immensely from the EU in the period up until some time in the last decade. If they leave then their name will be mud throughout most of Europe.
June 21, 201114 yr Author If Greece leave the euro and then devalue then Ireland and Portugal will be under pressure to do the same, potentially setting off a vicious spiral as they all try to undercut each other. If Ireland leave the EU, who will trust them in the future? Ireland benefitted immensely from the EU in the period up until some time in the last decade. If they leave then their name will be mud throughout most of Europe. Do they really have any option though? The cuts are killing their economy. And, as angry as I am at what the UK government is doing with cuts on ordinary people who didn't cause the mess, I'd probably be evn more furious if it was other countries' governments who were forcing the cuts on us. I think that's just human instinct. IF these countries are going to survive in the Eurozone and avoid defaulting on debts, then France and Germany are simply going to have to give the "PIIGS" unconditional support, agree to meet ALL their debt payments, give them decades to repay it, and drop all this bluffing about how they'll only give support if these countries' governments do certain things, and stop forcing cuts and such ridiculous interest rates - that's just making a bad situation worse. You can't have monetary union if you're not prepared to guarantee every member's solvency.
June 21, 201114 yr But it was in 2009 that this rather nebulous affair with the alleged sale of 1.3 billion Euros of Credit Default Swaps is supposed to have happened though.... That's what I meant, the PIGS should leave the Eurozone and concentrate on sorting themselves out, go back to their original currencies and devalue them...... And then they can just tell the French and German banks to "f**k off" like Iceland did.... That's a fair point! If Greece leave the euro and then devalue then Ireland and Portugal will be under pressure to do the same, potentially setting off a vicious spiral as they all try to undercut each other. If Ireland leave the EU, who will trust them in the future? Ireland benefitted immensely from the EU in the period up until some time in the last decade. If they leave then their name will be mud throughout most of Europe. This is the thing that bugs me, though. People seem to forget that Europe also benefitted hugely from Ireland joining too. "Fish" is all I have to say on that matter! :P Not to mention the profit the EU will make out of our bailout that will cripple everybody in the country for decades to come. Germany and France have already dragged our name through the mud, so it doesn't really matter. People won't care what Europe think because they're already kicking us while we're down.
June 21, 201114 yr Someone needs to turn France and Germany against one anther because they hold far too much power as a unit. They may be the two biggest Eurozone economies but they are using that power to bully and belittle instead of offering support and fair solutions. Greece is clearly the first Domino here, if they default then Portugal and Ireland won't be far behind and it's going to slaughter the French, German and British economies which will then in turn kill the rest of the EU stone cold dead and Europe enters a second recession that would be far worse than the first. With Us having the Tories in power, they'll cut further which will utterly destroy our economy and put us in a race with Italy and Spain to be the 4th EU country to default on it's debt [Naturally Osborne and Camoron will still be crying that it's Labours fault]. I agree with Grimly that Greece leaving the Eurozone is a strong option, this would relieve a bit of the pressure on Portugal and Ireland as a default would harm the banks and governments of Germany/France/UK but not bring the Euro crashing down to it's knees.
June 21, 201114 yr What would be the immediate cost to Greece if they left the euro? They would have to produce a massive amount of notes and coins and there would be a significant cost to businesses if they had to convert back to the drachma (or some new currency).
June 21, 201114 yr Someone needs to turn France and Germany against one anther because they hold far too much power as a unit. They may be the two biggest Eurozone economies but they are using that power to bully and belittle instead of offering support and fair solutions. Greece is clearly the first Domino here, if they default then Portugal and Ireland won't be far behind and it's going to slaughter the French, German and British economies which will then in turn kill the rest of the EU stone cold dead and Europe enters a second recession that would be far worse than the first. With Us having the Tories in power, they'll cut further which will utterly destroy our economy and put us in a race with Italy and Spain to be the 4th EU country to default on it's debt [Naturally Osborne and Camoron will still be crying that it's Labours fault]. I agree with Grimly that Greece leaving the Eurozone is a strong option, this would relieve a bit of the pressure on Portugal and Ireland as a default would harm the banks and governments of Germany/France/UK but not bring the Euro crashing down to it's knees. Then I can't work out why France and Germany are enforcing harsh cuts on the PIIGS if it'll cause troubles for themselves further down the line? Short term political reasons?
June 21, 201114 yr Ireland had some "good" developments last night which could stop it from receiving a second bailout, so I do think we could be leaving the "danger zone" soon enough if Greece get the help that they need. The IMF seem to have their heads screwed on and have told Germany and France to quit messing around. It's all politics at the end of the day. Merkel is already on thin ice and Sarkozy is going down fast. If Greece goes, so does Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain and probably Belgium (seeing as they don't even have a government).
June 21, 201114 yr Then I can't work out why France and Germany are enforcing harsh cuts on the PIIGS if it'll cause troubles for themselves further down the line? Short term political reasons?Yeah it's pure politics, the German and French voters don't have a good image of the Greeks right now and will look badly on their leaders for just handing money away when they are still a bit f***ed themselves.
June 21, 201114 yr Short term thinking is one of the biggest problems of a democracy. Politicians always find it hard to see beyond the next election and - not surprisingly - they want to do what they can to improve their prospects at that election. Apart from Nick Clegg of course. Sarkozy is up for re-election next year so his stance is understandable even if it is also wrong. In addition this is a pretty complex issue. It's hard to explain exactly why a Greek default could have serious consequences for the rest of Europe. Of course it's made even more difficult when you've got a press like ours.
June 22, 201114 yr Why do I have the feeling Merkel and Sarkozy would've just given Greece the second bailout regardless of the outcome of Greece's confidence vote? I think the IMF would've made this happen regardless.
June 22, 201114 yr Ireland had some "good" developments last night which could stop it from receiving a second bailout, so I do think we could be leaving the "danger zone" soon enough if Greece get the help that they need. The IMF seem to have their heads screwed on and have told Germany and France to quit messing around. It's all politics at the end of the day. Merkel is already on thin ice and Sarkozy is going down fast. If Greece goes, so does Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain and probably Belgium (seeing as they don't even have a government). I agree, if Greece get the money they need then it saves the entire EU. It buys Ireland and Portugal enough time to sort themselves out and get out of that danger zone before Greece has a chance to get back on shaky ground.
June 22, 201114 yr I agree, if Greece get the money they need then it saves the entire EU. It buys Ireland and Portugal enough time to sort themselves out and get out of that danger zone before Greece has a chance to get back on shaky ground. The new government here are dealing with it remarkably well, and I never thought I'd say that! The government wants to burn the bondholders of Anglo and Nationwide, which would save the taxpayer a rather hefty sum, but the ECB are blocking that attempt because they don't want bank bondholders to not be paid back. The thing is, Anglo and Nationwide aren't actually "banks" anymore, so the ECB's reasoning is rather ridiculous. I'm pretty sure the EU were thinking the new government here would be like the old one - spineless. Thankfully they have a pair and are challenging the EU on almost everything and it seems to be getting us to better places. Us PIIGS must stick together, I tells ya! :P Edited June 22, 201114 yr by Cal
June 22, 201114 yr It's been reported that Ireland would only lose €200m if Greece defaulted. Without sounding dense, it really doesn't seem that much. :blink: Of course, that's not taking into account if the Euro went down with Greece, but it's still not that much. http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-faces-e20...161558-Jun2011/ "Ireland’s hit is modest in comparison to the hit that the UK could face, with British banks exposed to £366bn (€410bn) in Greek debt due to complicated derivatives and second-hand insurance deals. So while Ireland’s potential bill breaks down to around €43 per person, each person in the UK would face an average bill of around £5,900 (€6,600) if Greece hit the wall and failed to pay back any of its debts." D:
June 22, 201114 yr £366bn? Oh good god we're fucked if Greece goes under. Yup! Greece are receiving another bailout when they can't even afford the first one. They are, in effect, bailing out French and German banks. The German public are furious that they have to help Greece. Sorry, but tough shit. :lol: If you lord yourself up as the big and strong economic leader in Europe then you have to accept the consequences. You can't have it both ways. The Germans have to be VERY careful about how they handle this. Bild is already fueling anti-Greek sentiment with their propaganda. Some of the stories they are churning out are frightening. If the Germans are as gullible as they look then I hope Greece takes them down with them.
June 22, 201114 yr True, but I would've thought the readers of Bild would have a bit more cop on. Unless Bild's main target audience are the bankers? :P Edited June 22, 201114 yr by Cal
June 23, 201114 yr The new government here are dealing with it remarkably well, and I never thought I'd say that! The government wants to burn the bondholders of Anglo and Nationwide, which would save the taxpayer a rather hefty sum, but the ECB are blocking that attempt because they don't want bank bondholders to not be paid back. The thing is, Anglo and Nationwide aren't actually "banks" anymore, so the ECB's reasoning is rather ridiculous. I'm pretty sure the EU were thinking the new government here would be like the old one - spineless. Thankfully they have a pair and are challenging the EU on almost everything and it seems to be getting us to better places. Us PIIGS must stick together, I tells ya! :P I agree with that sentiment totally... The PIIGS nations are only in trouble because of the Global, international Bank-ster occupation.... The "debt" isn't Public debt, it's Private debt, created by the Investment banks screw-ups....
June 23, 201114 yr And, don't you just love the way Cameron is "talking tough" to the Germans... "Britain will not be part of an EU bail-out of Greece"... Yeah, Dave, whatever, just forget about the fact that Britain is still very much "on-the-hook" if Greece defaults anyway because of our IMF commitments.... Twat.... -_-
June 29, 201114 yr Greeks fighting austerity trap Source Russia Today Greece will officially tighten its belt even further after the parliament voted for massive new austerity cuts required for a new EU-backed transaction of 12 billion euros. The prime minister’s budget has received 151 votes from the 300-seat legislature – enough for the plan to be passed. The cuts are believed to lead to massive bailouts and, according to the unions, to a further deterioration of the situation with employment in the country. Thousands of people have been protesting against the new austerity measures since Tuesday. At least 46 people have been injured in clashes with the police, who used tear gas to disperse protesters, trying to prevent them from breaking into the parliament building in Athens. The protesting Greeks do not want to pay the debt, which they say they did not create, says Despina Koutsoumba from the country's Civil Servants Trade Union, who is with the demonstrators in Athens. "Capitalists want the employees and the working class to pay for this crisis. We say 'no'. We say 'tax the rich people'. We say 'don't sell anything this country owns'. The public debt they say we have to pay is not our debt! We didn't decide on it. We didn't ask for it!" she told RT. The bill will leave Greeks impoverished and put the sovereignty of Greece itself under question, the activist believes. When parliament votes for it, the ruling party will be out of power after the next election, she promised. "They are trying not to hear us. The Socialist Party that governs now has lost everyone who voted for [them]. They said one thing before the election and they do other things now. They are leading our country to a catastrophe and it is something we will not tolerate! It's a matter of life or death for the people of my country!" she said. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So, 151 traitors vote to sell out tens of thousands of years of Greek culture and history..... RIP Greek Democracy...... :(
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