I've now got Clinton 272 v 266 Trump.

 

Being the pessimist I am, it's all hinging on New Hampshire, as I can't see Trump winning anywhere else (I've got him winning Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio).

Early Voting suggests Nevada is in the bag for Clinton given she has a nearly identical lead to Obama in 12. Barring huge R turnout on Tuesday, of course, but given almost 75% of the state has voted he would need it to be massively in his favour.

 

Florida and NC had some very good EV news today too, the electorates in both were MUCH younger and MUCH more diverse, on average, the past 48 hours than they had been before. Both groups which break heavily D.

Hmm I wonder if this terrible Trump news will mobilise the Obama Coalition, getting the youth and minority voters out in bigger numbers, shoring up these states for Hills?

 

I don't even wanna follow the election till the night or morning of, just too nervous. There is a lot of stake here - not just a narcissistic orange orangutan white supremacist Putin-raised puppet getting the nuclear codes but more legitimisation of racism sexism extreme right wing views etc, and we've had enough of that since Brexit.

I've never been so excited but nervous at the same time about any election.

 

I kind of want it to be over with, I can't take the stress.

Trump is going to win this election by a landslide, I believe with around 72 million votes (Obama got 69.4 million in 2008) and could potentially win 40+ states. ILLary supporters on this thread need to mentally prepare themselves for Trump winning because it's becoming more and more likely.

Don't feed the troll, folks.

 

As has been said, Clinton's odds on FiveThirtyEight do seem to have stabilised. Most of her "firewall" states look like they won't be a problem, and while a Trump win in New Hampshire would put him over the top she's still very much within striking distance in Florida, North Carolina and particularly Nevada. Any of those should seal it for her unless she loses Pennsylvania or Colorado.

 

I wonder whether the polls tightening in Trump's favour over the last week might actually end up costing him. It's generally assumed that turnout is lower when the result looks like a foregone conclusion, and I wonder whether one of the things driving his comeback and Republicans coming "home" to him was them thinking that he was worth a throw of the dice just to stop the seemingly inevitable Clinton win. Him closing the gap as a result of that may in turn motivate independents and Democrats who don't like him but might not have voted to actually turn out. Hopefully.

 

Also to anyone pointing out the comparisons to May 2015 and Brexit - in both of those, the polls had it as properly neck and neck on polling day. That probably won't be the case here, although Trump could well be within the margin of error.

Don't feed the troll, folks.

 

As has been said, Clinton's odds on FiveThirtyEight do seem to have stabilised. Most of her "firewall" states look like they won't be a problem, and while a Trump win in New Hampshire would put him over the top she's still very much within striking distance in Florida, North Carolina and particularly Nevada. Any of those should seal it for her unless she loses Pennsylvania or Colorado.

 

I wonder whether the polls tightening in Trump's favour over the last week might actually end up costing him. It's generally assumed that turnout is lower when the result looks like a foregone conclusion, and I wonder whether one of the things driving his comeback and Republicans coming "home" to him was them thinking that he was worth a throw of the dice just to stop the seemingly inevitable Clinton win. Him closing the gap as a result of that may in turn motivate independents and Democrats who don't like him but might not have voted to actually turn out. Hopefully.

 

Also to anyone pointing out the comparisons to May 2015 and Brexit - in both of those, the polls had it as properly neck and neck on polling day. That probably won't be the case here, although Trump could well be within the margin of error.

 

That is exactly my (nervous) question too!! If the esrly voting turnout is even better news for her these days it could b3cause of the higher turnout of Never Trump voters. Think, millenials who are completrly turned off by Hills and eere gonna sit out or protest vote might not feel more of a need yo vote Hills as the only opposition to the orangutang.

Trump is going to win this election by a landslide, I believe with around 72 million votes (Obama got 69.4 million in 2008) and could potentially win 40+ states. ILLary supporters on this thread need to mentally prepare themselves for Trump winning because it's becoming more and more likely.

 

Donald bloody Trump is no Obama :lol:

Trump is going to win this election by a landslide, I believe with around 72 million votes (Obama got 69.4 million in 2008) and could potentially win 40+ states. ILLary supporters on this thread need to mentally prepare themselves for Trump winning because it's becoming more and more likely.

 

 

LMAO. I'm a Trump fan but even I just laughed so much that I covered my keyboard in coffee.

Don't feed the troll, folks.

 

As has been said, Clinton's odds on FiveThirtyEight do seem to have stabilised. Most of her "firewall" states look like they won't be a problem, and while a Trump win in New Hampshire would put him over the top she's still very much within striking distance in Florida, North Carolina and particularly Nevada. Any of those should seal it for her unless she loses Pennsylvania or Colorado.

 

I wonder whether the polls tightening in Trump's favour over the last week might actually end up costing him. It's generally assumed that turnout is lower when the result looks like a foregone conclusion, and I wonder whether one of the things driving his comeback and Republicans coming "home" to him was them thinking that he was worth a throw of the dice just to stop the seemingly inevitable Clinton win. Him closing the gap as a result of that may in turn motivate independents and Democrats who don't like him but might not have voted to actually turn out. Hopefully.

 

Also to anyone pointing out the comparisons to May 2015 and Brexit - in both of those, the polls had it as properly neck and neck on polling day. That probably won't be the case here, although Trump could well be within the margin of error.

 

If you're referring to me then no I'm not trolling, I haven't just made my predictions out of thin air, not long till we find out if my prediction was too bold.

If you're referring to me then no I'm not trolling, I haven't just made my predictions out of thin air, not long till we find out if my prediction was too bold.

Thin air is being generous. More like a reality vacuum.

LMAO. I'm a Trump fan but even I just laughed so much that I covered my keyboard in coffee.

You still haven't given any positive reasons for supporting him. Let's try looking at the attributes one would expect to see in the leader of the most powerful nation on Earth. We'll start with statesmanship. I'd give Trump 0/10. After all, openly stating that you want to throw your opponent in jail, calling your opponent crooked, encouraging (even if in jest) your supporters to consider shooting your opponent, encouraging your supporters to assault any of your opponent's supporters who try to heckle you,....

 

The list is almost endless. Can you give an example of Trump acting in a statesmanlike manner?

But he has a penis, a great big penis too, the biggest penis in the world, everyone says it. That alone makes him better.

OK I got the Brexit result right to within 0.1% accuracy. Let's see if I can do the same here:

 

(don't put money on this, previous results are no indication of accuracy! :lol: )

 

Clinton 50.4%

Trump 49.6%

 

where's that salt gone I need to pinch a bit... :P

But he has a penis, a great big penis too, the biggest penis in the world, everyone says it. That alone makes him better.

It's a tremendous penis, women can't resist it. I just walk up to them and its so great that they just jump on it.

OK I got the Brexit result right to within 0.1% accuracy. Let's see if I can do the same here:

 

(don't put money on this, previous results are no indication of accuracy! :lol: )

 

Clinton 50.4%

Trump 49.6%

 

where's that salt gone I need to pinch a bit... :P

 

You don't think any 3rd parties will pick up any significant votes then? (Unless you're purely comparing Clinton's #s to Trump's?)

 

As my input in the last 70+ pages has showed, I've been wrong about almost everything related to the US elections, so I shall refrain from making predictions in the last 3 days. I'll be in Cyprus the night the results come in, so so I hope that the results won't get so bad that I won't be able to get back home.

Trump is going to win this election by a landslide, I believe with around 72 million votes (Obama got 69.4 million in 2008) and could potentially win 40+ states. ILLary supporters on this thread need to mentally prepare themselves for Trump winning because it's becoming more and more likely.

You know you could make an absolute fortune if you put cash on any of this? £50 would probably get you enough to quit work for a year.

Two days and the nightmare is over!! (Or just beginning )

 

Gonna try and ignore it till then.

You know you could make an absolute fortune if you put cash on any of this? £50 would probably get you enough to quit work for a year.

I don't know what odds you're looking at, the odds aren't that good to make a lot of money on a Trump landslide. But also strangely ILLary is odds-on favourite to win, LOL!

Edited November 6, 20168 yr by PeaceMob

In the grand scheme of potential outcomes, Trump landslide is DEAD LAST.

 

Clinton win similar to Obama 2012 > narrow Clinton win > Clinton win similar to Obama 2008 > narrow Trump win > Clinton landslide (ie. 8/9 points plus) > 3/4% Trump win > Trump landslide