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I suppose one blessing about Trump having such a narrow viable path to winning is we should know fairly early if he's still in it, ie. when Florida is called.
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I don't know what odds you're looking at, the odds aren't that good to make a lot of money on a Trump landslide. But also strangely ILLary is odds-on favourite to win, LOL!

Walk into your nearest bookies and ask them to quote you odds on Trump winning more than 40 states. You'd turn £50 into over £1,500 from betting on him winning more than 30 alone. Any bookie will be putting a minimum of 3 figures to 1 on an outcome that sees him winning Washington, Delaware and Connecticut.

Walk into your nearest bookies and ask them to quote you odds on Trump winning more than 40 states. You'd turn £50 into over £1,500 from betting on him winning more than 30 alone.

 

Meanwhile I am glad I didn't make that bet on bernie in t end!

I suppose one blessing about Trump having such a narrow viable path to winning is we should know fairly early if he's still in it, ie. when Florida is called.

If it's anything like 2012, Florida will probably be one of the last states called. Obama won it by a narrow but fairly clear margin and it still didn't get declared for several days. We'll know when Michigan and North Carolina are called.

 

If Michigan gets declared immediately for Hillary and she wins either Nevada or North Carolina, Trump has no route. They've focused him there for the last couple of days, so it's obviously the main Kerry state they think he has a shot of picking off, and he needs one of them to win. He's not getting Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin, and Michigan's the absolute closest he could muster. Still hasn't led in a poll there all year though.

Meanwhile I am glad I didn't make that bet on bernie in t end!

Just colour me simply *astounded* that you didn't place money on that absurdly long shot outcome that you were supposedly so certain on. I absolutely never would have seen that coming.

My final prediction is 342-196. Same as 2012, but Iowa goes Trump and North Carolina and NE-2 go Clinton.
When's the best time to start watching this unfold live?

First declarations will be around midnight, but that'll just be the obvious lot (West Virginia et al for Trump, Vermont et al for Hillary). 1am onwards is where the fun should begin. They called Ohio for Obama at around half four in 2012.

My final prediction is 342-196. Same as 2012, but Iowa goes Trump and North Carolina and NE-2 go Clinton.

 

You think Hillary is still going to win Ohio?

 

I'm getting the sense that New Hampshire is the important state to watch, as long as Hillary still holds on there Trump can win every single other competitive state (even Nevada) and still lose.

 

Taking a wild stab at 293-245 (Hillary getting NC/NH/NV and all the other battlegrounds going to Trump).

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Anyone here in the UK actually staying up? I'm not. May get up about 5 or 6am to see what's happening.
East Coast time yes?

Nope, UK time. Polls close around 7pm (their time) in most states and the networks declare fairly quickly if the margin is above 5 percent.

 

You think Hillary is still going to win Ohio?

 

I'm getting the sense that New Hampshire is the important state to watch, as long as Hillary still holds on there Trump can win every single other competitive state (even Nevada) and still lose.

 

Taking a wild stab at 293-245 (Hillary getting NC/NH/NV and all the other battlegrounds going to Trump).

Taking a stab that Ohio will be really narrow but that the almost incomparable gulf between Hillary and Trump in terms of get-out-the-vote operations will just about tilt it her way, but it's the most on-the-edge state in my prediction. Iowa could even go Hillary if GOTV really comes through on the day, but the Democrats have to have a *really* good election day performance to pull it off as they're a fair whack down on early voting compared with 2012.

 

On your call, she doesn't even need New Hampshire if she has Nevada, and the state's top election watcher (Ralston) basically thinks Trump's lost it already on the basis of the early vote.

I'm planning on staying up, but I'll see how Tuesday goes at work. If I can get enough stuff done I won't worry too much about being tired at work on Wednesday.
gettin f***'d up on the cheapest wine i can find bc this election deserves nothing better
Nope, UK time. Polls close around 7pm (their time) in most states and the networks declare fairly quickly if the margin is above 5 percent.

Ah cool! Cheers!

 

 

Then I shall probably put in an all nighter on BBC then ^_^

On your call, she doesn't even need New Hampshire if she has Nevada, and the state's top election watcher (Railston) basically thinks Trump's lost it already on the basis of the early vote.

 

I know - what I'm saying is if she DOES have NH, then she's almost certainly won even if Trump somehow wins Nevada. (And presumably NH will be called earlier? admittedly not 100% sure about this)

I'd more or less go with Tirren's call but I'll give Trump Ohio and Nebraska 2nd (and possibly Maine 2nd)

 

Hoping there's enough of a surge in the Latinx vote to flip Arizona but I'm not confident enough to say Clinton'll take it. It'll still be close, mind.

gettin f***'d up on the cheapest wine i can find bc this election deserves nothing better

babe please, treat yo'self to cristal it's the least you deserve after these last 15 months

Id roughly agree with Tirren also, but I'm erring on the side of Ohio narrowly going to Trump. Whoever gets it though, it's going to be about 0.5% difference. I'd also give him NE2 and I don't see any path for HRC in Iowa short of a 7/8 point national win.

 

Florida will probably be a 1-1.5% HRC win, similar or maybe closer to 2% in North Carolina. I'd also agree that Michigan will also probably be close, maybe around 2% as well, but I think she will hold it too (obv).

Unfortunately, I've got school on Wednesday, so staying up is not an option.

 

Towards predictions, RealClearPolitics gives a 297-241 win for Clinton for no Toss-Ups. I would say that Clinton will win New Hampshire and Nevada, but I'm not sure on Florida. So a Clinton win, 278-260 if Florida votes Trump and 307-231 if Florida votes Clinton. I'm hesitating, but I think I'm going to say that Clinton will take Florida.

 

Final prediction: 307-231

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