There's an article on FiveThirtyEight.com that implies there might be an impact on minority voting in Philadelphia due to a city transport strike.

South Carolinais defo not as securely Red as they'd like it to be because there's a lot of republicans there who will be voting Hilary because they hate trump. Anectode alert but all my friends in SC are republicans from republican families and they're all holding their noses and crossing the floor.

There's an article on FiveThirtyEight.com that implies there might be an impact on minority voting in Philadelphia due to a city transport strike.

it ended this morning and service is due to start tomorrow morning. (THANK GOD)

also i get the "pennsylvania eventually turning red" scenarios bc of the proportion of white working class, but i feel that can be counteracted somewhat by the diversifying population in the eastern third of the state (where i live), mainly driven by latinx migration from the ny/nj area.

also i get the "pennsylvania eventually turning red" scenarios bc of the proportion of white working class, but i feel that can be counteracted somewhat by the diversifying population in the eastern third of the state (where i live), mainly driven by latinx migration from the ny/nj area.

 

I think she will win Penn, but Ohio and Iowa appear to be out of reach. She needs both NC and Florida.

Ohio probably isn't out of reach if this ends up being a 5 point race, a couple of polls over the weekend put it as a tie or had her narrowly ahead, which seems to be in line with what internals from both parties are suggesting too ie. a 1/2pt difference (allegedly).

I think she will win Penn, but Ohio and Iowa appear to be out of reach. She needs both NC and Florida.

 

I think Florida is near a certainty for Hillary because of the Hispanic vote and as has been said here, Hispanic people can be underrepresented in the polls (and less than 1% of Hispanics would probably vote Trump)

 

North Carolina is the most important swing state therefore (assuming the western swing ones go for Trump).

Edited November 7, 20168 yr by Snake In The Sno

I think Florida is near a certainty for Hillary because of the Hispanic vote and as has been said here, Hispanic people can be underrepresented in the polls (and less than 1% of Hispanics would probably vote Trump)

 

North Carolina is the most important swing state therefore (assuming the western swing ones go for Trump).

 

She will get Nevada I think it's pretty much in the bag and I think it'll be shocker if she doesn't win there. Colorado is more of a worry. Clinton camp pulled off ads too early in that state and I think it kinda shows their arrogance. -_-

She will get Nevada I think it's pretty much in the bag and I think it'll be shocker if she doesn't win there. Colorado is more of a worry. Clinton camp pulled off ads too early in that state and I think it kinda shows their arrogance. -_-

 

Colorado to me seems like the most safe swing-state for Hillary (if you can even call it a swing state).

Colorado to me seems like the most safe swing-state for Hillary (if you can even call it a swing state).

 

True dat. Colorado/Virginia are basically blue states at this point.

If Trump thought he had the slightest chance in Colorado he would've been there.

The meltdown on here when the results come in is going to be beautiful, like I said before Trump has a real chance of winning 40+ states and I'm sticking with that. Ohio will probably be the first state where ILLary supporters will probably start to see how big Trump is winning and this will be the theme throughout the night.

Which long running democrat states will trump be winning then?

 

Time to back up your statement with an actual thought process! If you're so confident you'll have not problem saying what 40 he'll win, or rather what 10 she'll win

The meltdown on here when the results come in is going to be beautiful, like I said before Trump has a real chance of winning 40+ states and I'm sticking with that. Ohio will probably be the first state where ILLary supporters will probably start to see how big Trump is winning and this will be the theme throughout the night.

If you think there's such a good chance of him winning more than 40 states, have you put any money on it? If not, you're a moron. I mean, if you have you're a moron too, but I'd be a little more inclined to respect you putting yourself out there rather than just transparently searching for a reaction.

Which long running democrat states will trump be winning then?

 

Time to back up your statement with an actual thought process! If you're so confident you'll have not problem saying what 40 he'll win, or rather what 10 she'll win

 

ILLary will win California, Oregon, Illinois, probably Hawaii, and all of the small states in New England except New Hampshire, Maine, and maybe Rhode Island. Trump will win the rest. I think the biggest shock of the night will be Trump potentially winning New York state but it will be VERY close.

The meltdown on here when the results come in is going to be beautiful, like I said before Trump has a real chance of winning 40+ states and I'm sticking with that. Ohio will probably be the first state where ILLary supporters will probably start to see how big Trump is winning and this will be the theme throughout the night.

 

Humour me for a second. As Phil has already said, which 10 will Hillary win?

 

Or better yet, which five out of the following will Trump steal, bearing in mind these all states have Hillary Clinton at least 9 points ahead? Because, you know, he'd have to win at least 5 of these to win 40+ states.

 

71.4% | D.C. (3)

26.7% | Vermont (3)

26.3% | Maryland (10)

24.0% | Hawaii (4)

23.2% | Massachusetts (11)

22.7% | California (55)

19.7% | New York (29)

13.6% | Rhode Island (4)

13.0% | Illinois (20)

13.0% | Maine - 1st District (1)

12.4% | Washington (12)

11.7% | New Jersey (14)

11.5% | Connecticut (7)

10.9% | Delaware (3)

09.3% | Oregon (7)

Hello everyone been reading your discussions but haven't commented for a while.

 

Although I don't think Trump will get 40 states Peacemob :) I do think he has a good chance of winning.

 

The early voting in Colorado shows we may be in for a big surprise. Dems vote in much bigger numbers in the early voting and Trump is already tied. Qassandra he held a big rally there a couple of days ago. He's doing 4-5 a day at the moment

 

https://twitter.com/morlando125/status/794963837900488704.

 

 

Given most polls show independents favouring Trump and the below poll of voting intention on election day, he has a real shot at this.

 

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/...289419771158528

 

For what its worth my prediction. If Trump wins the following where avg polling shows him up (RCP average) GA,OH,NH,ME2,NC,NV,AZ, IA & takes then FL he's at exactly 270 (including "safe" and leaning Rep states)

 

I think it shows they are worried throwing Obama at Michigan. Ive also seen various polls where on Election day voters in Florida showing Trump leading 10-15 points. This is going to be a close election at the very least.

Edited November 7, 20168 yr by torresgirl

That map is very true, but anyone worth their salt as a statistician admits Nevada is all but a done deal for HRC at this point.

 

Humour me for a second. As Phil has already said, which 10 will Hillary win?

 

Or better yet, which five out of the following will Trump steal, bearing in mind these all states have Hillary Clinton at least 9 points ahead? Because, you know, he'd have to win at least 5 of these to win 40+ states.

 

71.4% | D.C. (3)

26.7% | Vermont (3)

26.3% | Maryland (10)

24.0% | Hawaii (4)

23.2% | Massachusetts (11)

22.7% | California (55)

19.7% | New York (29)

13.6% | Rhode Island (4)

13.0% | Illinois (20)

13.0% | Maine - 1st District (1)

12.4% | Washington (12)

11.7% | New Jersey (14)

11.5% | Connecticut (7)

10.9% | Delaware (3)

09.3% | Oregon (7)

 

She's totally going to lose Vermont because Bernie and momentum and crooked and stuff.

That map is very true, but anyone worth their salt as a statistician admits Nevada is all but a done deal for HRC at this point.

 

I'm not so sure about Nevada. Trump will have a much bigger turnout on the day and most of whats being reported is not taking independents into account. I saw these figures posted and I think it could be quite accurate. Given the massive push the Dems have made to get the vote early (for obvious reasons) I don't think its a big enough gap to cancel out what will happen on election day. Its one scenario but given as above independents break for Trump its not unrealistic.

 

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/795236726050525184

 

Its going to be interesting that's for sure. Hillary's main problem is the enthusiasm for her is nowhere near that of Obama. There are already many reports of the African American vote being lower at this stage than in 2012 for example. She needs that vote to be strong to win this.