Following several recent by-elections where they have finished in a better position than expected, certain commentators are starting to consider UKIP as a rising force in UK politics. So much so, that apparently they've caught the eye of that shadowy newspaper overlord himself, Rupert Murdoch:

 

Rupert Murdoch is "interested" to find out what the UK Independence Party is up to and how much support it has, its leader Nigel Farage has said after meeting the tycoon for the first time.

 

The two men had dinner in Mr Murdoch's London flat on Tuesday.

 

Mr Farage said Mr Murdoch was a "remarkable bloke" but would not comment on what they had discussed.

 

In a tweet after UKIP's second place in the Eastleigh by-election, Mr Murdoch suggested it was "reflecting opinion".

 

According to the Daily Telegraph, Mr Farage suggested to Mr Murdoch at the meal that he would form an electoral pact with the Conservatives if David Cameron stood down as leader.

 

The UKIP leader has previously suggested he would be prepared to talk to other senior Conservatives, such as Education Secretary Michael Gove, about possible co-operation in 2015 but not the prime minister.

 

Asked about the meeting with the media mogul, Mr Farage told the BBC: "He's a remarkable bloke. I enjoyed meeting him enormously but the political content I am going to choose to keep private."

 

So, will UKIP become a force in UK politics by the time the next general election comes in 2015, or will they fizzle out? Personally, I cannot see them winning more than a handful of seats in 2015, and wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win any altogether.

Edited March 9, 201312 yr by Brett-Bloodsport

Agreed- it's a classic case of "protest vote". Having said that there is a genuine feeling (if not a reality) that the country is being increasingly governed by Brussels which does need to be tackled, the fact that successive governments of varying hues refuse to hold a referendum will only prolong the whole debate when it could be settled one way or the other.

Under First Past The Post it is incredibly difficult for a new party to make a breakthrough. Even if UKIP get 15-20% of the vote at the next election (unlikely in my view), they would probably win no seats.

 

Under current broadcasting guidelines they will get next to no coverage in the campaign itself. Of course, if their policies haven't been examined between now and then, that could be to their advantage as people won't realies how incoherent they are. For example, they want hefty tax cuts - particularly for the rich - but massivelty increased defence expenditure. They talk about getting rid of two million civil servants in their last manifesto and say that one million new private sector jobs will magically appear.

Agreed- it's a classic case of "protest vote". Having said that there is a genuine feeling (if not a reality) that the country is being increasingly governed by Brussels which does need to be tackled, the fact that successive governments of varying hues refuse to hold a referendum will only prolong the whole debate when it could be settled one way or the other.

Whoever came up with the term "EU Directive" has a lot to answer for. It gives the impression that some bureaucrat in Brussels comes up with an idea and signs it into effect immediately. The reality is that they have to be agreed by all (or, in some cases, most) member states before coming into effect.

I can't see them getting anywhere proper for a long time. Them getting popular can only really hurt the Tories so I'm sure Cameron will be doing all possible to avoid that. And as their core directive that differentiates them from the Tories, withdrawing, is just a bit too radical and AFAIA will only cause more problems than it could ever solve, I can't see them getting much support in a general election beyond a few disillusioned right-wingers.

 

just found out that their spring conference is at my uni in two weeks, exeter what are you doing? :(

They won't win a seat in 2015. Where would it happen? Labour heartlands are a no-no, as typified by the Rotherham by-election where Labour haemorrhaged votes to the parties that came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (UKIP, BNP and Respect) yet an unpopular candidate still walked away with 45% of the vote. Tories who are flirting with UKIP will inevitably come home during the general election, and Eastleigh suggests that they won't be able to push the Lib Dems out anywhere - especially since the LDs will be desperate to cling onto their 20-30 core MPs and have considerable ground teams in those places.

 

Their biggest chance of doing anything of note is next year's Europeans. As of now the seat breakdown is:

 

Conservatives 26

Labour 13

Lib Dems 12

UKIP 11

 

Opinion polling (which isn't a great indicator given the way the election works) have Labour well in the lead, and I doubt that UKIP will be able to overhaul a 10% lead no matter how that translates into seats.

 

And then if we have an EU referendum post-2015 and the Great British Public™ vote to stay in Europe we'll have hopefully seen the back of them.

UKIP are too much of a single, heavily bigoted, issue party to every break through. Aside from leaving the EU, and causing an economic meltdown that would make Greece feel pretty good about themselves, the vast majority of their voters couldn't name another one of their policies.

 

They are just the BNP in nicer suits.

Read that one poll today has UKIP on 18% and LD on 8%!

Read that one poll today has UKIP on 18% and LD on 8%!

 

Can I ask where you read this?

And then if we have an EU referendum post-2015 and the Great British Public™ vote to stay in Europe we'll have hopefully seen the back of them.

 

 

What if, as I think will happen, the vote is a NO, in favour of leaving the EEC? I'll vote no and frankly I don't know anyone who will vote yes.

Can I ask where you read this?

 

 

Think it was on one of those news flash sequences that changes on Yahoo. I'm not imagining it but didn't click on it to read the story.

Think it was on one of those news flash sequences that changes on Yahoo. I'm not imagining it but didn't click on it to read the story.

 

I didn't say that you were imagining it. And I know what you mean, I sometimes look at Yahoo news stories myself.

Okay it's on Digital Spy forums too. 17% but I saw 18% earlier today on Yahoo!

 

"The Observer’s Toby Helm has reported that UKIP are on 17% nationally in tomorrow’s Observer poll – just 10% behind the Tories.

 

This is an astonishing figure that shows how the party is seriously now catching up with the Tories in national polls.

 

By comparison, the Liberal Democrats are down on just 8% – less than half that of UKIP.

 

Once it was major news when UKIP overtook the LibDems in a national opinion poll. I wonder how long it will be before UKIP polls second in a General Election voting intention poll ahead of the Tories."

At one point in the 1979-83 parliament the Alliance (now the Lib Dems) were on over 50%. They still came third in the subsequent General Election.

What if, as I think will happen, the vote is a NO, in favour of leaving the EEC? I'll vote no and frankly I don't know anyone who will vote yes.

The EEC=/=EU

Once it was major news when UKIP overtook the LibDems in a national opinion poll. I wonder how long it will be before UKIP polls second in a General Election voting intention poll ahead of the Tories."

Let's try 'never'.

UKIP are too much of a single, heavily bigoted, issue party to every break through. Aside from leaving the EU, and causing an economic meltdown that would make Greece feel pretty good about themselves, the vast majority of their voters couldn't name another one of their policies.

 

They are just the BNP in nicer suits.

 

Whilst they might be closer to the BNP in terms of policies than to other parties, I don't think it's an apt comparison. UKIP have a much better infrastructure in place than the BNP, whilst their leader is much better at handling the media. The BNP on the other hand have fallen apart (thank goodness), and one single appearance on Question Time (where Nick Griffin went on about 'aboriginal Britains') completely derailed the party.

 

But greater scrutiny of the party in total is likely to cause them some problems. They've had to expel a few members from the party for extremist views in the past few months, and as it gets closer to the election there'll be more skeletons taken out of the closet than at Tim Burton's Halloween party.

great to see all opinions on here are sane. I work for local government, and the views expressed on local paper forums tend to be "extreme" or "illogical" or "nutter", or any combination thereof.

 

Music fans - vote for them and a saner world. Sounds like a potential good new political party...:)

UKIP and the BNP aren't actually that alike in terms of overall policy - socially the former is a watered down version of the latter, but UKIP are far right economically as well whereas the BNP aren't.

 

I would think that it's naive to assume how a lot of people will vote if the EU referendum is held after 2015 simply because campaigning hasn't even begun yet, and a lot of people don't really know a lot about the arguments either way. I'm sure someone more learned than myself will find a statistic that had the AV referendum been held in 2009 it would have got a resounding Yes.