Speaking for myself I'm 3k worse off than I was in 2008 and that's ignoring inflation. My workload has gone up.

 

Yes only the affluent will be feeling well off....

The number of jobless people fell by 154,000 to 1.97 million in the three months to the end of August, the Office for National Statistics said.

 

The drop, which is bigger than analysts expected, took the unemployment rate to 6%, its lowest level since late 2008.

 

Chancellor George Osborne said the fall in unemployment was "evidence that our long-term economic plan is working".

 

Except it's not is it George? (By the way I am so p*ssed off constantly hearing that tired phrase like they are trying to brain wash us into thinking, y'know: you've got a point there George). Wage inflation was at 0.7% which is below an already pretty low inflation rate of 1.2% and income tax is likely to fall short of government targets.

 

Public sector borrowing soared to £11.6billion in August - up 6.1 per cent or £700million compared with the same month last year, recent figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. It means the government has borrowed £45.4billion in the first five months of the fiscal year - some £2.6billion or 6.2 per cent more than between April and August last year.

 

Excellent time to reduce the income tax burden for the wealthiest earning over £41K then!!!

The fact that income tax is falling short of target even while unemployment is falling faster than expected shows just how badly paid a lot of these so-called jobs are.

 

As for Osborne's claim, that is disingenuous in the extreme. Just because "We did A then B happened" that doesn't mean that A caused B.

..and just because official figures say unemployment is falling that doesn't mean it's due to extra people working full-time jobs, it's due to people taking early retirement with no pension, zero-hour contracts (and still not working much), part-time, government "courses" (aka free labour for some employers).

 

As I've said before, this is an artificial pre-election bubble, nothing has improved much in 7 years and reality will hit hard before long.

 

"we're doomed , cap'n Mainwaring, doomed!" cue new Dad's Army film...

 

 

Yep, I am very worried about the next 10 years, and I certainly don't see interest rates rising if wages (and now inflation) continue to stagnate. I think we could have interest rates at half a percent for decades to come potentially. A bit like what happened to Japan in the 1990s.

good link, and yes it sounds all-too familiar. I don't think the UK asset bubble has been dealt with yet, people still use property as savings/profits rather than somewhere to live, and banks still hold bad mortgages afraid of cashing them in while the taxpayer still part-owns or they stand to lose on the original loan. Everyone's playing a waiting game, hoping they don't end up in negative equity or become unable to afford monthly payments on their house.

 

Trouble is, year-on-year, things get slightly worse for the latter (and savings), and I don't see property increasing in value if interest rates rise - it'll knock any recovery on the head. So, yes, I can see interest rates low for the foreseeable future too....

Japan is back in recession: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30077122

 

Gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annualised 1.6% from July to September, compared with forecasts of a 2.1% rise.

 

That followed a revised 7.3% contraction in the second quarter, which was the biggest fall since the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Not looking rosy for us either:

 

Eurostat also reports that Germany has the biggest trade surplus of any European Union member, and Britain the biggest deficit.

A 7.3% contraction in one quarter? Wait wut.

 

I'm not sure why Cameron is warning of a second global crash right now. The low inflation in Europe is bad but I don't see any bubbles bursting as in prior to the 2008 crash. The cynic in me thinks it's just to soften the blow when more austerity is announced soon. It's completely different to the 'we ARE recovering!!' rhetoric that's been going around for the last 5 years.

Edited November 17, 201410 yr by Harve

At least he didn't say "our long term economic plan is working". *Shudders*

 

I however do see the same bubbles unfortunately Harve; we still have exactly the same problem as in the mid-2000s with massively overpriced assets wrt earnings, and now the general public believe (thanks to irresponsible schemes like 'Help To Buy') that house prices will not be allowed to fall at any cost.

 

Housing in London is a total mess, the social cleansing from Boris et al is sickening.

I agree nothing has been learnt, people still see housing as a safer investment than savings rather than as somewhere for them to live, so theys till "buy up" whole chains of houses. It's just waiting for the banks to pull the plug on everyone managing to survive on the lowest possible interest rates. Either our economy is screwed for a decade or more and that continues, or rates rise and banks stop being so tax-payer-life-supported considerate and start possession of debt-ridden properties. Bankers not known for their altruistic tendancies on the whole.....

 

Cameron is just setting the ground for the inevitable come-down after the mini-bubble policies that have been co-ordinated to come to fruition just before an election.

 

Of course I could just be cynical...

Not looking rosy for us either:

We've run a trade deficit since the 80s. It doesn't really matter because of the City.

We've run a trade deficit since the 80s. It doesn't really matter because of the City.

 

Yes - but worst trade deficit in the EU. Worse than Greece, Italy, Spain..

Yes - but worst trade deficit in the EU. Worse than Greece, Italy, Spain..

We've always had one of the worst trade deficits in the EU. It's different from a budget deficit - a trade deficit just means that we're importing more than we're exporting, but in practice because we have a floating currency and the City both owning assets abroad and providing international financial services it hasn't really mattered since the 80s.

Being a nation of rampant consumers feeding off of endless credit, whilst producing next to nothing of value is nothing to be proud of though is it?

Edited November 17, 201410 yr by Doctor Blind

Being a nation of rampant consumers feeding off of endless credit, whilst producing next to nothing of value is nothing to be proud of though is it?

Well living on credit and being rampant consumers is a separate point but the idea that having a trade deficit is something to be ashamed of is a bit of an off notion - there's not much of a moral dimension to it, especially compared with the vast majority of other government statistics. We do offer a lot of value internationally through the City (not that you'd tell from everything to the left of the Times generalising it all by the small proportion of predatory companies there - but modern life is for all intents and purposes impossible without a banking system) and the idea that we have to be exporting physical products for it to be 'morally' right is a bit old-fashioned really.

 

I don't see consumerism as morally wrong anyway. Why bother fighting for higher wages otherwise? I want people to have more stuff and be more comfortably off. I only have to look at the difference between a middle class household and a working class household to see that there is value and happiness in having more products, it just isn't the definition of happiness.

I would agree with you on those points, however it is an unsustainable model (at the current rate of ~7% trade deficit of GDP) and I feel like we need a rebalancing of the economy.

Far easier said than done! The reason Osborne's settling for the same housing bubble-led growth as before is because it was literally all he could get. Despite attempts at taking advantage of the lower exchange rate for sterling and encouraging manufacturing expansion, it just never really took off. The problem is that Germany's monopolised it a bit and also it needs the kind of supply-side reforms that take a long time to come through. The big increase in students choosing STEM subjects will help, but we won't see the benefits of that for another ten years, minimum.

Of course, it will be very difficult, but definitely worth pursuing. I do like the way we are advancing in the renewable/low carbon sector including developing new technologies, and I've heard about the the STEM project, indeed one of my friends is a STEM ambassador, I just feel that we aren't doing much to address the issue and all Osborne is worried about is wringing out just enough 'growth' short-term to allow him to get voted back in come May.

 

*Sigh. *

All Osborne is worried about is wringing out just enough 'growth' short-term to allow him to get voted back in come May.

 

*Sigh. *

Bingo. I think he tried in the early part to have his cake and eat it, but once it became obvious it wasn't happening he just went for the quick and irresponsible route. Although really this one of democracy's weaknesses - the likes of China can take much more of a long-term focus on these things because they don't have to worry as much about pissing voters off. It's all trade-offs really.

Yes - but worst trade deficit in the EU. Worse than Greece, Italy, Spain..

As a politics geek I watched almost all of the BBC coverage of election night in October 1964 when the BBC Parliament channel showed it last week. One of the issues discussed was the decision by the outgoing Tory government to delay publication of the trade figures which just happened to show a massive deficit. That was in the days when some months actually showed a surplus. Of course students of politics will know that another set of bad trade figures were published in the 1970 General Election campaign, figures that were largely due to a British airline placing an order for a large number of new aircraft. Some commentators say that was why Labour lost an election they were expected to win.