Can I ask a English politics question - why do the Tories and lib dems dominate the south west?

 

Even in most of the poor areas of the south west, the trade union movement never took off properly, so there wasn't really fertile ground for Labour. The Lib Dems have traditionally been the party of the poor there. Also loads of rich people go to retire in the south west (and old rich people = Tories, simplistically).

 

(The exception is Bristol which has always been decent for Labour and, like most of the big cities, looks set to be a strong result for them again this time.)

Edited April 28, 201510 yr by Danny

Also farming. It's why East Anglia's mostly Tory/Lib Dem too.

which is ironic considering the farming Tolpuddle Martyrs were having wages systematically slashed and were transported for daring to try and stop the halving of wages as industrialisation took off and spare labour drove wages down.

 

So the rich and powerful try and stamp on anything that threatens their profits and power. Some things never change.....

Ah i see, so they are Tories with a heart then basically. Always wondered as iv always had a decent outlook toward William Gladstone as he believed he now was to ' pacify Ireland' as he said in 1868 but he closely followed free market economics and was part of the classical school in economic terms in comparison to the new Liberals in the 20th century who became more statist. But i guess tis was the time we lived in so Lloyd George and the like moved towrds keynesianism as it became popular and they felt pressure from the Labour movement to their left in the 1900s.

New Scottish poll: SNP 54%, Labour 20%, Tories 17%, Lib Dems 5%

 

The SNP would take every single seat bar Orkney & Shetland Islands, where they would only be 4% behind the Lib Dems on a uniform swing.

New Ashcroft polls out this afternoon. Thanet and Hallam will be exceedingly interesting.

A major cock-up in safe Labour seat Hull East. Postal ballot papers sent out with two candidates, Labour and Green, missing, for the second time! Is no-one checking at least a few of every batch before they go in envelopes? :rolleyes: If there's a suspicious swing or it's a lot close than anticipated, the election may have to be re-run.

New Scottish poll: SNP 54%, Labour 20%, Tories 17%, Lib Dems 5%

 

The SNP would take every single seat bar Orkney & Shetland Islands, where they would only be 4% behind the Lib Dems on a uniform swing.

Bloody hell. If this actually happens on May 7th then this country will never be the same.

Ah i see, so they are Tories with a heart then basically. Always wondered as iv always had a decent outlook toward William Gladstone as he believed he now was to ' pacify Ireland' as he said in 1868 but he closely followed free market economics and was part of the classical school in economic terms in comparison to the new Liberals in the 20th century who became more statist. But i guess tis was the time we lived in so Lloyd George and the like moved towrds keynesianism as it became popular and they felt pressure from the Labour movement to their left in the 1900s.

Free markets actually worked better for the less well-off (well, more of them) back then, as they ensured the cheapest food came into the UK rather than having tariffs on foreign imports boosting prices. British farmers got screwed over by that though, and they weren't especially well off either.

It does now seem the polls are moving the Tories' way. 5 of 6 polls since Monday have had them in the lead.

Edited April 29, 201510 yr by Danny

Sheffield Hallam: Labour 37%, Clegg 36%, Tories 15%

 

South Thanet: Tories 34%, Farage 32%, Labour 26%

STV has a pic of that latest Scottish poll that shows all 59 seats in SNP yellow *.*

A major cock-up in safe Labour seat Hull East. Postal ballot papers sent out with two candidates, Labour and Green, missing, for the second time! Is no-one checking at least a few of every batch before they go in envelopes? :rolleyes: If there's a suspicious swing or it's a lot close than anticipated, the election may have to be re-run.

It has only affected a few hundred papers, so it is highly unlikely to affect the outcome. Nevertheless, it is unbelievably incompetent.

Sheffield Hallam: Labour 37%, Clegg 36%, Tories 15%

 

South Thanet: Tories 34%, Farage 32%, Labour 26%

That is slightly misleading. The candidates were not named in the poll, as per Ashcroft's standard method. Effectively, both constituencies are a dead heat.

Bloody hell. If this actually happens on May 7th then this country will never be the same.

 

 

Hmm, nothing is forever. Depends on how well they are viewed to have done in Scotland in 5 years time, and 10 years time and any consequences good or bad on any influence they have had. Look at the Libdems and what a difference 5 years has made essentially over one minor policy c*ck-up and doing what was democratically voted for by the electorate. Looks like the SNP's turn to learn from their mistakes...

It does now seem the polls are moving the Tories' way. 5 of 6 polls since Monday have had them in the lead.

 

 

Yes but still within the margin of error.

Sheffield Hallam: Labour 37%, Clegg 36%, Tories 15%

 

South Thanet: Tories 34%, Farage 32%, Labour 26%

 

 

Still both too close to call really. Should be an exciting sleepness night with plenty of Red Bull, coffee and snacks! Anyone else staying up all night?

I think the big test of how influential the SNP surge will be will be how the seats stand up in 2020 - the way it stands currently, the SNP gain a *lot* of seats quite suddenly past a certain threshold (I think around ~17% swing?), and then lose them again quite suddenly past that point. If Labour can't regain those types of seats in five years then we're probably in for another referendum.

 

 

Still both too close to call really. Should be an exciting sleepness night with plenty of Red Bull, coffee and snacks! Anyone else staying up all night?

 

I'm leaning towards a Farage win because I think UKIP are being underestimated by people too ashamed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for them. Sheffield Hallam is a complete toss-up, though.

 

Probably staying up, yes, even at the risk of f***ing up my sleep pattern in the middle of my exams :drama: As things stand though, The inevitable chaos of the days following the election might be more exciting than election night itself.

I'm leaning towards a Farage win because I think UKIP are being underestimated by people too ashamed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for them. Sheffield Hallam is a complete toss-up, though.

 

.

 

 

I agree. This was discussed on one of the news channels today. A lot of people don't want to admit to voting for UKIP, bit like not wanting to admit voting for the BNP, to their friends, colleagues and, surprisingly, the pollsters. The resident polling "expert" confidently preduicted that UKIP would get 19% and 5 seats, including Farage, Reckless and Carswell. We'll see.

Edited April 29, 201510 yr by Common Sense